Bayesian statistics and biased procedures

A comparison of Neyman's theory of interval estimation with the corresponding subjective Bayesian theory of credible intervals shows that the Bayesian approach to the estimation of statistical parameters allows experimental procedures which, from the orthodox objective viewpoint, are clearly biased and clearly inadmissible. This demonstrated methodological difference focuses attention on the key difference in the two general theories, namely, that the orthodox theory is supposed to provide a known average frequency of successful estimates, whereas the Bayesian account provides only a coherent ordering of degrees of belief and a subsequent maximization of subjective expected utilities. To rebut the charge of allowing biased procedures, the Bayesian must attack the foundations of orthodox, objectivist methods. Two apparently popular avenues of attack are briefly considered and found wanting. The first is that orthodox methods fail to apply to the single case. The second is that orthodox methods are subject to a typical Humean regress. The conclusion is that orthodox objectivist methods remain viable in the face of the subjective Bayesian alternative — at least with respect to the problem of statistical estimation.     

INTENTIONAL COMMUNICATION IN THE TREE DRAWING TEST

K onttinen , R. & K arila , A. Intentional communication in the tree drawing test. Scand. J. Psychol ., 1969, 10 , 129–136—One way in which relationships between drawing variables and personality traits may be conceived is by interpreting the drawing as intentional communication. Some implications of this proposition were tested. Five formal variables of tree drawings were studied: angularity, size, form level, shading, and pressure. Only angularity can unambiguously be given a communication interpretation; but the other variables, too, may perhaps be used for intentional communication.     

Testing significance of differences between two chi-squares

This paper presents a way to test the difference between twoX ²'s. The test requires evaluating the difference with respect to theT _m (x) Bessel function. Included is a table of the 5 percent and 1 percent points for the Bessel function with degrees of freedom up to 100.This investigation was supported by National Science Foundation Grant Number GE 9846.     

Book reviews

Animal Discrimination Learning. Edited by R. M. Gilbert and N. S. Sutherland. London: Academic Press. 1969. Pp. xvi + 501. 1358.

Luce, R. D. and Tukey, J. W. (1964). Simultaneous conjoint measurement: a new type of fundamental measurement. J. math. Psychol. I, 1-27.

Discrimination Learning. By D. A. Riley. Boston: Allyn and Bacon Inc. 1968. Pp. 172. Paperback 21s.

Annual Review of Psychology. Vol. 20. Palo Alto: Annual Reviews Inc. 1969. Pp. ix + 544. $9.00.

Cutaneous Sensation. By David Sinclair. London: Oxford University Press. 1967. Pp. xii + 306. 63s.

Modelling of Thinking and the Mind.. By N. M. Amosov. Translated by L. Finegold. New York: Spartan Books. London: Macmillan. 11967. Pp. xiii + 192.

The Mind of Mnemonist. By A. R. Luria. London: Jonathan Cape. 1969. Pp. xi + 160. 25s.

Determinants of Infant Behaviour IV. Edited by B. M. Foss. London: Methuen. 1969. Pp. 303. £3 10s.

Brain and Behaviour. Volumes 1-4. Edited by Karl Pribram. Harmondsworth: Penguin Books Ltd. 1969. Pp. 496 +573 + 523 + 524. 12s. 6d. per volume.     

Prior stimulation and the perception of causality

An attempt was made to discover whether, in conditions similar to those of Michotte, the number of causal responses given by subjects was influenced by stimulation during the period just before the main experiment. Time-intervals between the arrival of object A and the departure of object B were systematically varied within the range 60 to 390 msec. Those who had earlier been exposed to shorter time-intervals (60 to 210 msec.) gave fewer causal responses than those who had been exposed to longer ones (150 to 300 msec. and 240 to 390 msec.). A possible explanation is offered in terms of the modification of existing “schemata.”     

Adolescents: A Suppressed Minority Group

The recent antagonistic but equally meritorious arguments concerning the nature of the adolescent necessitates a new framework of analysis which would incorporate these apparent antagonisms. Cursory observations indicate that more fruitful results may be obtained if the adolescent is equated to a member of a suppressed minority group. A comparison of the characteristics of the adolescent peer group to those of a suppressed minority group reveals some striking similarities.     

Comparison of Life Styles of Honors,Non-Honors Women

This study compares the after-college life styles of participants in a college honors program with a control group of women who were not college honors students in order to determine the effects of a college honors program on life roles after college. The 81 participants of this study represent 93 percent of women who participated as college freshmen and during their ensuing college years in a study to determine the effects of an honors program on students while still in college. The results of the current study—the first contact with the women since they left college—illustrates the differences between the present life roles of these two groups of women in the areas of family involvement, careers, education, and community participation. The results show significant differences between honors and non-honors subjects in career-orientation and in commitment to their field of study and to the university at which they studied.