Out of sight, out of mind: the presence of forensic evidence counts more than its absence

Recent evidence suggests that decision makers in criminal procedures are susceptible to biases. We previously found support for the presence of a feature positive effect (FPE, i.e., people attach more meaning to present than to absent information) in legal-decision making. In this study, we tried to uncover the mechanisms behind the FPE. Taking a cue from the literature on situation models in language comprehension, we investigated whether a FPE manifests itself in the memorization and use of forensic evidence. Students read a case file about a fistfight as well as additional evidence. The forensic evidence was manipulated such that a FPE on guilt estimation and conviction rate could be assessed. While subjects read additional forensic evidence, their eye movements were recorded to explore the presence of FPE in online processing. Afterwards, subjects were asked to decide on the suspect's guilt. They had to recall all information they remembered from the case file and indicate which parts of information they considered relevant to this decision. The results provided evidence for the occurrence of FPE in memorization and use of information and can be explained by the theoretical construct of situation models.     

Stereotype threat: Antecedents and consequences for working women

Three studies investigated antecedents and consequences of stereotype threat for female employees. The results of Studies 1 and 2 suggest that social comparisons with men are associated with feelings of stereotype threat whereas social comparisons with women are not. Stereotype threat, in turn, was associated with conflict surrounding women's identity as female employees and with decreased perceived likelihood of achieving career goals. Study 3 extended these findings by demonstrating that feelings of stereotype threat are also negatively related to workplace attitudes and turnover intentions. Furthermore, the effect of stereotype threat on these job attitudes and intentions was itself mediated by identity conflict and perceived likelihood of achieving career goals. Implications and limitations of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The evolution and psychology of self-deception

In this article we argue that self-deception evolved to facilitate interpersonal deception by allowing people to avoid the cues to conscious deception that might reveal deceptive intent. Self-deception has two additional advantages: It eliminates the costly cognitive load that is typically associated with deceiving, and it can minimize retribution if the deception is discovered. Beyond its role in specific acts of deception, self-deceptive self-enhancement also allows people to display more confidence than is warranted, which has a host of social advantages. The question then arises of how the self can be both deceiver and deceived. We propose that this is achieved through dissociations of mental processes, including conscious versus unconscious memories, conscious versus unconscious attitudes, and automatic versus controlled processes. Given the variety of methods for deceiving others, it should come as no surprise that self-deception manifests itself in a number of different psychological processes, and we discuss various types of self-deception. We then discuss the interpersonal versus intrapersonal nature of self-deception before considering the levels of consciousness at which the self can be deceived. Finally, we contrast our evolutionary approach to self-deception with current theories and debates in psychology and consider some of the costs associated with self-deception.     

A randomized controlled trial of mother–infant psychoanalytic treatment: I. Outcomes on self‐report questionnaires and external ratings

Mother–infant relationship disturbances occur in three domains: maternal distress, infant functional problems, and relationship difficulties. They constitute common clinical problems. In Sweden, they are usually handled by nurses as part of public Child Health Centre care. Severe cases are referred to child psychiatry services. This randomized controlled trial compared two groups of mother–infant dyads in a Stockholm sample. One received only Child Health Centre care (the “CHCC” group) while the other received mother–infant psychoanalytic treatment plus CHCC (the “MIP” group). Eighty dyads of mothers and infants under 1½ years of age where the mothers had serious concerns about themselves in their role as mothers, their infants' well‐being, or the mother–baby relationship were randomly selected for either the MIP or the CHCC group. The primary outcomes were mother‐reported depression, mother‐reported infant functional problems, and interviewer‐based relationship assessments, all at 6 months after joining the project. Secondary outcomes were mother‐reported stress and general psychic distress, externally rated video‐recorded interactions, and the consumption of healthcare at the CHC, again all after 6 months. Intent‐to‐treat analyses of Treatment × Time effects significantly favored MIP treatment for maternal depression, mother–infant relationships, and maternal sensitivity. Effects were nearly significant on maternal stress, but nonsignificant on mother‐reported infant functional problems, general psychic distress, maternal interactive structuring and nonintrusiveness, infant responsiveness and involvement, and healthcare consumption. MIP treatment improved mother–infant relationships and maternal sensitivity and depression, all of which are known to influence child development. If effects persist and are reproduced, MIP treatment holds promise for more widespread use.     

Trajectories of Depression and Anxiety Symptoms in Adolescent Girls: A Comparison of Parallel Trajectory Approaches

Longitudinal mixture models have become popular in the literature. However, modest attention has been paid to whether these models provide a better fit to the data than growth models. Here, we compared longitudinal mixture models to growth models in the context of changes in depression and anxiety symptoms in a community sample of girls from age 10 to 17. Model comparisons found that the preferred solution was a 5-class parallel process growth mixture model that differed in the course of depression and anxiety symptoms reflecting both ordering of symptoms and qualitative group differences. Comparisons between classes revealed substantive differences on a number of outcomes using this solution. Findings are discussed in the context of clinical assessment and implementation of growth mixture models.     

Efficient Hessian computation using sparse matrix derivatives in RAM notation

This article proposes a new, more efficient method to compute the minus two log likelihood, its gradient, and the Hessian for structural equation models (SEMs) in reticular action model (RAM) notation. The method exploits the beneficial aspect of RAM notation that the matrix derivatives used in RAM are sparse. For an SEM with K variables, P parameters, and P′ entries in the symmetrical or asymmetrical matrix of the RAM notation filled with parameters, the asymptotical run time of the algorithm is O(P?′?K ²?+?P ² K ²?+?K ³). The naive implementation and numerical implementations are both O(P ² K ³), so that for typical applications of SEM, the proposed algorithm is asymptotically K times faster than the best previously known algorithm. A simulation comparison with a numerical algorithm shows that the asymptotical efficiency is transferred to an applied computational advantage that is crucial for the application of maximum likelihood estimation, even in small, but especially in moderate or large, SEMs.     

Reading about explanations enhances perceptions of inevitability and foreseeability: a cross-cultural study with Wikipedia articles

In hindsight, people often perceive events to be more inevitable and foreseeable than in foresight. According to Causal Model Theory (Nestler et al. in J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn 34: 1043–1054, 2008), causal explanations are crucial for such hindsight distortions to occur. The present study provides further empirical support for this notion but extends previous findings in several ways. First, ecologically valid materials were used. Second, the effect of causal information on hindsight distortions was investigated in the realm of previously known events. Third, cross-cultural differences in reasoning (analytic vs. holistic) were taken into account. Specifically, German and Vietnamese participants in our study were presented with Wikipedia articles about the nuclear power plant in Fukushima Daiichi, Japan. They read either the version that existed before the nuclear disaster unfolded (Version 1) or the article that existed 8 weeks after the catastrophe commenced (Version 2). Only the latter contained elaborations on causal antecedents and therefore provided an explanation for the disaster. Reading that version led participants to perceive the nuclear disaster to be more likely inevitable and foreseeable when compared to reading Version 1. Cultural background did not exert a significant effect on these perceptions. Hence, hindsight distortions were obtained for ecologically valid materials even if the event was already known. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Couples' evaluations of fatherhood in different stages of the family life cycle

Fathers' and mothers' views on mothers' satisfaction with paternal behaviour as well as the respective processes of origination were studied in 393 cohabiting couples from three different stages of the family life cycle. Data on paternal competence and the couples' relationship characteristics were included as predictors in multiple regression analyses, and the stages of the family life cycle were taken into account with multigroup regression analyses. Results showed that the mothers were more satisfied with paternal behaviour than the fathers thought the mothers were. Moreover, mothers were satisfied when the fathers were willing to spend time with the child, whereas fathers thought that their partners were satisfied when they were able to establish and maintain a relationship with the child. Couple relationship satisfaction had a consistent impact on fathers' views, whereas it was not relevant to mothers' views unless the oldest child had reached adolescence.     

Granger Causality—Statistical Analysis Under a Configural Perspective

The concept of Granger causality can be used to examine putative causal relations between two series of scores. Based on regression models, it is asked whether one series can be considered the cause for the second series. In this article, we propose extending the pool of methods available for testing hypotheses that are compatible with Granger causation by adopting a configural perspective. This perspective allows researchers to assume that effects exist for specific categories only or for specific sectors of the data space, but not for other categories or sectors. Configural Frequency Analysis (CFA) is proposed as the method of analysis from a configural perspective. CFA base models are derived for the exploratory analysis of Granger causation. These models are specified so that they parallel the regression models used for variable-oriented analysis of hypotheses of Granger causation. An example from the development of aggression in adolescence is used. The example shows that only one pattern of change in aggressive impulses over time Granger-causes change in physical aggression against peers.     

Social Capital and Individual Happiness in Europe

This paper explores the relationship between social capital and happiness both in Europe as a whole, as well as in its four main geographical macro-regions—North, South, East and West—separately. We test the hypothesis of whether social capital, in its three-fold definition established by Coleman (Am J Sociol 94:S95–S120 1988)—trust, social interaction, and norms and sanctions—influences individual happiness across European countries and regions. The concept of social capital is further enriched by incorporating Putnam (Making democracy work—civic traditions in modern Italy. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1993) and Olson (The rise and decline of nations—economic growth, stagflation, and social rigidities. Yale University Press, New Haven and London, 1982) type variables on associational activity. Using ordinal logistic regression analysis on data for 48,583 individuals from 25 European countries, we reach three main findings. First, social capital matters for happiness across the three dimensions considered. Second, the main drivers of the effects of social capital on happiness appear to be informal social interaction and general social, as well as institutional trust. And third, there are significant differences in how social capital interacts with happiness across different areas of Europe, with the connection being at is weakest in the Nordic countries.