Simple mechanisms for gathering social information

Social contexts are notoriously complex, yet decisions are nevertheless made by using simple strategies. We argue that the concept of fast and frugal heuristics provides a promising framework for understanding how we gather social information to make decisions in social environments. That is, we assume that under limitations of time, energy, and computational resources people use cognitively based shortcuts that rely on information from social environments to solve different types of real problems. We review three successful applications of heuristics to the social arena. We first introduce some commonly faced social inference problems (e.g., selecting a mate or deciding whether to cooperate with someone) and then discuss how individuals can use simple strategies to solve such problems. For each problem, we consider how social environments are structured, and how we take advantage of this structure when using heuristics to make inferences and decisions.     

Estimating correlations with missing data,a bayesian approach

The posterior distribution of the bivariate correlation is analytically derived given a data set wherex is completely observed buty is missing at random for a portion of the sample. Interval estimates of the correlation are then constructed from the posterior distribution in terms of highest density regions (HDRs). Various choices for the form of the prior distribution are explored. For each of these priors, the resulting Bayesian HDRs are compared with each other and with intervals derived from maximum likelihood theory.     

Family‐Based HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infection Risk Reduction for Drug‐Involved Young Offenders: 42‐Month Outcomes

This study tested a family‐based human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention approach integrated within an empirically supported treatment for drug‐involved young offenders, Multidimensional Family Therapy (MDFT). A randomized, controlled, two‐site community‐based trial was conducted with 154 youth and their parents. Drug‐involved adolescents were recruited in detention, randomly assigned to either MDFT or Enhanced Services as Usual (ESAU), and assessed at intake, 3, 6, 9, 18, 24, 36, and 42‐month follow‐ups. Youth in both conditions received structured HIV/STI prevention in detention and those in MDFT also received family‐based HIV/STI prevention as part of ongoing treatment following detention release. Youth in both conditions and sites significantly reduced rates of unprotected sex acts and STI incidence from intake to 9 months. They remained below baseline levels of STI incidence (10%) over the 42‐month follow‐up period. At Site A, adolescents who were sexually active at intake and received MDFT showed greater reduction in overall frequency of sexual acts and number of unprotected sexual acts than youth in ESAU between intake and 9‐month follow‐ups. These intervention differences were evident through the 42‐month follow‐up. Intervention effects were not found for STI incidence or unprotected sex acts at Site B. Intensive group‐based and family intervention in detention and following release may reduce sexual risk among substance‐involved young offenders, and a family‐based approach may enhance effects among those at highest risk. Site differences in intervention effects, study limitations, clinical implications, and future research directions are discussed.     

The Influence of Skills,Message Frame,and Visual Aids on Prevention of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

In a large three week longitudinal study, we investigated the efficacy of framed messages for promoting condom use in sexually active young adults. We also investigated the influence of key risk literacy skills (i.e., numeracy and graph literacy) and visual aids (i.e., icon arrays) on the efficacy of framed messages. Finally, we investigated the underlying psychological mechanisms of behavioral change on the ability of icon arrays to improve message effectiveness. Results showed that framed messages including icon arrays increased adherence to self‐reported condom use by giving rise to enduring changes in attitudes and behavioral intentions, which influenced behavior. Icon arrays were found to be most beneficial among young adults with relatively low numeracy as long as they had high graph literacy. These findings build on the previous research in risk communication and extend psychological theories of health‐related decision making such as the theory of planned behavior. These findings also map the conditions under which well‐constructed visual aids can be among the most effective, transparent, and ethically desirable means of risk communication. Implications for risk communication and informed medical decision making are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Re-Considering the Structural Covariates of Gun Crime: An Examination of Direct and Moderated Effects

The prevalence of gun violence in the U.S. has resulted in extensive examination of structural covariates of gun crime. The potential influence of institutionally isolated youth and illegal gun availability remains unexplored. Similarly, studies that simultaneously examine the influence of structural disadvantage and Southern culture are scant. We examine the relationships between these measures and gun crime in a sample of U.S. cities (N = 189) through negative binomial regression of data from the NIBRS and ACS. We find illegal gun availability and structural disadvantage maintain direct relationships with city-level gun crime counts. We also report several significant moderated relationships.     

Take-the-best in expert-novice decision strategies for residential burglary

We examined the decision strategies and cue use of experts and novices in a consequential domain: crime. Three participant groups decided which of two residential properties was more likely to be burgled, on the basis of eight cues such as location of the property. The two expert groups were experienced burglars and police officers, and the novice group was composed of graduate students. We found that experts’ choices were best predicted by a lexicographic heuristic strategy called take-the-best that implies noncompensatory information processing, whereas novices’ choices were best predicted by a weighted additive linear strategy that implies compensatory processing. The two expert groups, however, differed in the cues they considered important in making their choices, and the police officers were actually more similar to novices in this regard. These findings extend the literature on judgment, decision making, and expertise, and have implications for criminal justice policy.     

Contriving transitive conditioned establishing operations to establish derived manding skills in adults with severe developmental disabilities

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate derived manding skills in 2 adults with severe developmental disabilities and language deficits by contriving transitive conditioned establishing operations. Specifically, we evaluated whether a history of reinforced conditional discrimination learning would ultimately result in a derived mand repertoire, in which participants manded for items that were needed to complete chained tasks. After mastering the first three phases of the picture exchange communication system (PECS), participants were taught to mand for the needed items by exchanging pictures of the items for the items themselves. They were then taught to conditionally relate the dictated names of the items to the corresponding pictures of the items and to relate the dictated names to the corresponding printed words. We then tested, in the absence of reinforcement, whether participants would mand for the items needed to complete the chained tasks using text rather than pictures. Both participants showed the emergence of derived mands and some derived stimulus relations as a result of this instruction. Some of the derived relations were shown to be intact at 1-month follow-up, and scores on derived mand probes were higher at follow-up than before training. In addition, the 2 participants vocally requested the needed items on maintenance test probes, a skill that was never trained and was not previously in their repertoires. These results suggest that a history of reinforced relational responding may facilitate the expansion of a number of verbal skills and emphasize the possibility of a synthesis of Skinner's (1957) analysis of verbal behavior and derived stimulus relations into language-training efforts for persons with significant disabilities.     

Prejudice against Women in Male-congenial Environments: Perceptions of Gender Role Congruity in Leadership

Some authors assert that there is a feminine advantage in leadership, even though female leaders are often targets of prejudice. Our experiment tested how people’s expectations affect this prejudice in different work environments. Participants evaluated a male or a female candidate for a leadership position in an industry that was congruent or incongruent with the candidate’s gender role. Participants showed prejudice against the female candidate, especially when she worked in an industry incongruent with her gender role. Female and older participants showed more prejudice against the female leader than did male and younger participants. These results invoke role congruity theory (Eagly & Karau, Role congruity theory of prejudice toward female leaders. Psychological Review, 109, 573–598, 2002).     

Predicting Children's Recall of a Dental Procedure: Contributions of Stress,Preparation, and Dental History

We examined the extent to which three predictors of children's recall, selected on the basis of their theoretical significance, contributed to the prediction of children's recall for the details of dental operative procedures in a diverse sample of 28 children (54–140 months of age). Parents provided information regarding their children's dental histories and preparation for the dental visit. We obtained behavioral indices of stress from video recordings of the procedures and interviewed the children shortly after treatment to assess their memory. In a significant model predicting open‐ended recall, measures of prior dental experience and parent discussion emerged as unique predictors, although stress did not add to the prediction. The results attest to the importance of incorporating measures of individual differences in investigations of children's reports of their personal experiences. We discuss the importance of children's interpretations in understanding memory for stressful events.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.