The False Consensus Effect and Overconfidence: Flaws in Judgment or Flaws in How We Study Judgment?

Thefalse consensus effectand theoverconfidence in judgmenteffect are often referred to as established “facts” of psychology. At present, the empirical support for these effects is inadequate and logically flawed. We argue that, absent other information, using one's own response to a situation as an observation of size 1 could be an effective use of data and could lead to anincreasein the accuracy of predicting others’ behavior. In an empirical examination of such use, we find a robustpositivecorrelation between the degree to which people believe that a majority of others are like them and their accuracy in predicting those others’ responses, whether this correlation is evaluated within items across people, across items within people, or across items across people. In addition, we show that the finding of overconfidence in judgment follows analytically from the functional relationship used to demonstrate it, a “finding” that is easily reversed by considering the inverse relationship. Specifically, we argue that regression effects account for the evidence cited in support of overconfidence. While not definitive, our empirical findings call into the question the acceptance of these two effects—as commonly defined—as facts.     

Gender Differences in Parent–Child Emotion Narratives

Early parent–child conversations about past emotional experiences provide a rich environment for the socialization of emotions. This study explored the role of parent and child gender in this process. Participants were 21 White, middle-class, 40- to 45-month-old children and their mothers and fathers. At separate home visits, each parent discussed with their child four specific past events during which the child experienced happiness, anger, sadness, and fear, respectively. Mothers conversed more overall, talked more about emotional aspects of the experience, and used more emotion words than did fathers. Similarly, girls talked more about emotional aspects of their experiences than did boys. Further, girls used more emotion words when discussing scary events than did boys. Most intriguingly, both mothers and fathers used more emotional utterances when discussing sad events with daughters than with sons. Parent–daughter dyads also placed emotional experiences in a more interpersonal context than did parent–son dyads. Implications for the development of gender, emotional understanding, and clinical repercussions are discussed.     

Further investigation of increasing vocalizations of children with autism with a speech-generating device

We replicated and extended the findings of Gervarter et al. (2016) by using prompting and reinforcement to produce increased vocal speech with 3 young children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who used a speech generating device (SGD). We extended Gervarter et al. by adopting a more robust experimental design, conducting session-by-session preference assessments, and measuring the emergence of novel vocalizations. The frequency of vocalizations increased for all 3 participants after the introduction of an echoic prompt. These results suggest that SGD-based interventions may lead to increased vocal output for children with ASD.     

Dysfunctional belief-based obsessive-compulsive disorder subgroups

An attempt was made to identify obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) subgroups based on differences in OCD related beliefs. OCD patients (N=367) were assessed with the Obsessional-Beliefs Questionnaire prior to treatment. Individuals' scores on measures of inflated personal responsibility and the tendency to overestimate threat, perfectionism and intolerance of uncertainty, and over-importance and over-control of thoughts were subjected to cluster analysis. Support for both a simple and complex subgroup model was found (2-subgroup and 5-subgroup taxonomies). A low-beliefs subgroup was identified in both taxonomies. The low-beliefs subgroups reported scores on belief measures equivalent to scores reported for non-OCD comparison groups in earlier studies. Additional analyses were conducted to determine relations between belief-based and symptom subgroups. Significant relationships were found (e.g., Symmetry symptom subgroup membership was associated with membership in the Perfectionism/Certainty beliefs subgroup), although the shared variance was modest. Implications for understanding OCD heterogeneity and for cognitive theory are discussed.     

Parent–child talk and children's memory for stressful events

The relationship between parents' styles of talking about past events with their children and children's recall of stressful events was explored. In this investigation, 2‐ to 5‐year‐old children's recall of injuries requiring hospital emergency room treatment was assessed within a few days of the injury and again 2 years later, along with the way their parents reminisced with them about the event. Correlational analyses showed that age and parental reminiscing style were consistently related to child memory; regression analyses showed that although age was most important, parents who were more elaborative had children who recalled more during their initial interview about the harder‐to‐remember hospital event. Thus, an elaborative parental style may help children's recall of even highly salient and stressful events. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mid-life stress is associated with both up- and down-regulation of markers of humoral and cellular immunity

Perception of stress with consequent activation of a neuroendocrine cascade causes changes in immune function that may be bi-directional, with alterations in basal levels of biological parameters outside the optimal range. In this cross-sectional study of 302 healthy persons (males 56.3%, females 43.7%) aged 41-46 years, higher stress levels, as assessed by questionnaire measures of recurrent and recent perceived stress, were associated with a 4-fold greater risk of having a high compared to mid-range serum neopterin concentration, indicating activation of cellular immune mechanisms [adjusted odds ratio, OR; (95% confidence intervals, CI): Low stress=1.00 (reference group); Medium stress=4.13 (1.51, 11.29); High stress=4.63, (1.35, 15.83), p for trend=0.01]. Higher stress levels were associated with a 3-fold greater risk of having signs of humoral immune activation, as indicated by salivary IgA concentration [high compared to mid-range salivary IgA: Low stress=1.00 (reference group); Medium stress=1.06 (0.48, 2.34); High stress=3.62 (1.26, 10.39), p for trend=0.02], but also a 4-fold greater risk of humoral immune depression [low compared to mid-range IgA: Low stress=1.00 (reference group); Medium stress=1.72 (0.74, 3.99); High stress=4.38 (1.47, 13.00), p for trend=0.02]. In conclusion, in this cross-sectional study, higher stress levels were associated with higher serum neopterin and both elevated and depressed salivary IgA levels. These findings emphasise the importance of considering that stress may have bi-directional effects on immune mechanisms, and are consistent with an activational effect of chronic, perceived stress on cellular immunity, and a bi-directional effect on IgA levels, one aspect of humoral immunity.     

Dispositional and Situational Moderators of the Relationship Between Leader–Member Exchange and Work Tension

This paper examines the relationship between leader–member exchange (LMX) and experienced work tension. The dispositional moderators of positive affectivity (PA) and negative affectivity (NA) and the situational moderator of frequency of interaction with the supervisor are included. We tested these relationships in a sample of 537 employees from various organizations. Specifically, we found that high NA coupled with high LMX produced the highest levels of work tension. Additionally, low frequency of interaction with the supervisor coupled with high LMX produced the highest levels of work tension. Finally, we found that the lowest levels of work tension were reported when individuals had high PA, high LMX, and high frequency of interaction with their supervisors.