The False Consensus Effect and Overconfidence: Flaws in Judgment or Flaws in How We Study Judgment?

Thefalse consensus effectand theoverconfidence in judgmenteffect are often referred to as established “facts” of psychology. At present, the empirical support for these effects is inadequate and logically flawed. We argue that, absent other information, using one's own response to a situation as an observation of size 1 could be an effective use of data and could lead to anincreasein the accuracy of predicting others’ behavior. In an empirical examination of such use, we find a robustpositivecorrelation between the degree to which people believe that a majority of others are like them and their accuracy in predicting those others’ responses, whether this correlation is evaluated within items across people, across items within people, or across items across people. In addition, we show that the finding of overconfidence in judgment follows analytically from the functional relationship used to demonstrate it, a “finding” that is easily reversed by considering the inverse relationship. Specifically, we argue that regression effects account for the evidence cited in support of overconfidence. While not definitive, our empirical findings call into the question the acceptance of these two effects—as commonly defined—as facts.     

Gender Differences in Parent–Child Emotion Narratives

Early parent–child conversations about past emotional experiences provide a rich environment for the socialization of emotions. This study explored the role of parent and child gender in this process. Participants were 21 White, middle-class, 40- to 45-month-old children and their mothers and fathers. At separate home visits, each parent discussed with their child four specific past events during which the child experienced happiness, anger, sadness, and fear, respectively. Mothers conversed more overall, talked more about emotional aspects of the experience, and used more emotion words than did fathers. Similarly, girls talked more about emotional aspects of their experiences than did boys. Further, girls used more emotion words when discussing scary events than did boys. Most intriguingly, both mothers and fathers used more emotional utterances when discussing sad events with daughters than with sons. Parent–daughter dyads also placed emotional experiences in a more interpersonal context than did parent–son dyads. Implications for the development of gender, emotional understanding, and clinical repercussions are discussed.     

Further investigation of increasing vocalizations of children with autism with a speech-generating device

We replicated and extended the findings of Gervarter et al. (2016) by using prompting and reinforcement to produce increased vocal speech with 3 young children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) who used a speech generating device (SGD). We extended Gervarter et al. by adopting a more robust experimental design, conducting session-by-session preference assessments, and measuring the emergence of novel vocalizations. The frequency of vocalizations increased for all 3 participants after the introduction of an echoic prompt. These results suggest that SGD-based interventions may lead to increased vocal output for children with ASD.     

Dysfunctional belief-based obsessive-compulsive disorder subgroups

An attempt was made to identify obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) subgroups based on differences in OCD related beliefs. OCD patients (N=367) were assessed with the Obsessional-Beliefs Questionnaire prior to treatment. Individuals' scores on measures of inflated personal responsibility and the tendency to overestimate threat, perfectionism and intolerance of uncertainty, and over-importance and over-control of thoughts were subjected to cluster analysis. Support for both a simple and complex subgroup model was found (2-subgroup and 5-subgroup taxonomies). A low-beliefs subgroup was identified in both taxonomies. The low-beliefs subgroups reported scores on belief measures equivalent to scores reported for non-OCD comparison groups in earlier studies. Additional analyses were conducted to determine relations between belief-based and symptom subgroups. Significant relationships were found (e.g., Symmetry symptom subgroup membership was associated with membership in the Perfectionism/Certainty beliefs subgroup), although the shared variance was modest. Implications for understanding OCD heterogeneity and for cognitive theory are discussed.     

Sensitivity of 4-year-olds to featural and second-order relational changes in face distinctiveness

Sensitivity to adult ratings of facial distinctiveness (how much an individual stands out in a crowd) has been demonstrated previously in children age 5 years or older. Experiment 1 extended this result to 4-year-olds using a "choose the more distinctive face" task. Children's patterns of choice across item pairs also correlated well with those of adults. In Experiment 2, original faces were made more distinctive via local feature changes (e.g., bushier eyebrows) or via relational changes (spacing changes, e.g., eyes closer together). Some previous findings suggest that children's sensitivity develops more slowly to relational changes than to featural changes. However, when we matched featural and relational changes for effects on distinctiveness in adult participants, 4-year-olds were equally sensitive to both. Our results suggest that (a) 4-year-olds' face space has important aspects of structure in common with that of adults and that (b) there is no specific developmental delay for a second-order relational component of configural/holistic processing.     

Why ritualized behavior? Precaution Systems and action parsing in developmental, pathological and cultural rituals

Ritualized behavior, intuitively recognizable by its stereotypy, rigidity, repetition, and apparent lack of rational motivation, is found in a variety of life conditions, customs, and everyday practices: in cultural rituals, whether religious or non-religious; in many children's complicated routines; in the pathology of obsessive-compulsive disorders (OCD); in normal adults around certain stages of the life-cycle, birthing in particular. Combining evidence from evolutionary anthropology, neuropsychology and neuroimaging, we propose an explanation of ritualized behavior in terms of an evolved Precaution System geared to the detection of and reaction to inferred threats to fitness. This system, distinct from fear-systems geared to respond to manifest danger, includes a repertoire of clues for potential danger as well as a repertoire of species-typical precautions. In OCD pathology, this system does not supply a negative feedback to the appraisal of potential threats, resulting in doubts about the proper performance of precautions, and repetition of action. Also, anxiety levels focus the attention on low-level gestural units of behavior rather than on the goal-related higher-level units normally used in parsing the action-flow. Normally automatized actions are submitted to cognitive control. This "swamps" working memory, an effect of which is a temporary relief from intrusions but also their long-term strengthening. Normal activation of this Precaution System explains intrusions and ritual behaviors in normal adults. Gradual calibration of the system occurs through childhood rituals. Cultural mimicry of this system's normal input makes cultural rituals attention-grabbing and compelling. A number of empirical predictions follow from this synthetic model.     

The haptic Müller-Lyer illusion in sighted and blind people

We examined the effect of visual experience on the haptic Müller-Lyer illusion. Subjects made size estimates of raised lines by using a sliding haptic ruler. Independent groups of blind-folded-sighted, late-blind, congenitally blind, and low-vision subjects judged the sizes of wings-in and wings-out stimuli, plain lines, and lines with short vertical ends. An illusion was found, since the wings-in stimuli were judged as shorter than the wings-out patterns and all of the other stimuli. Subjects generally underestimated the lengths of lines. In a second experiment we found a nonsignificant difference between length judgments of raised lines as opposed to smooth wooden dowels. The strength of the haptic illusion depends upon the angles of the wings, with a much stronger illusion for more acute angles. The effect of visual status was nonsignificant, suggesting that spatial distortion in the haptic Müller-Lyer illusion does not depend upon visual imagery or visual experience.