JUDGMENTAL VERSUS STATISTICAL PREDICTION:

Abstract— The relative predictive accuracy of humans and statistical models has long been the subject of controversy even though models have demonstrated superior performance in many studies. We propose that relative performance depends on the amount of contextual information available and whether it is distributed symmetrically to humans and models. Given their different strengths, human and statistical predictions can be profitably combined to improve prediction.     

Contributions of survey research to the understanding of memory

This article reviews the results of survey methodological research that illustrate phenomena of potential interest to investigators of memory, and also reviews psychological research designed to explore some of these phenomena under controlled laboratory conditions. We classify the phenomena reviewed into broad categories of remembering what events occurred, remembering when events occurred, and estimation and reconstruction processes used in reporting recurring events. We delineate the contributions of this research for our understanding of memory phenomena and show where this research has revealed gaps in our existing theories and knowledge. These findings present challenges for future collaboration between cognitive psychologists and survey methodologists.     

Offering predictive testing for Huntington disease in a medical genetics clinic: Practical applications

Predictive testing for Huntington disease is presently offered in a select few medical genetics centers in the United States. This is in part due to the labor intensive counseling and psychological testing suggested by the research protocols. We discuss some specific suggestions for establishing programs for Huntington disease predictive testing within pre-existing medical genetics clinics to encourage more centers to offer presymptomatic testing. This will allow more at risk individuals the opportunity to consider predictive testing and cut down the expenses of traveling to the few predictive testing centers that currently exist. The counseling principals will remain similar to those discussed here, even following the identification of the Huntington disease mutation.     

Family preservation using multisystemic treatment: Long-term follow-up to a clinical trial with serious juvenile offenders

In a randomized clinical trial, multisystemic family preservation was shown to significantly reduce rates of criminal activity and incarceration in a sample of 84 serious juvenile offenders and their multi-need families. In the current study, archival records were searched for re-arrest an average of 2.4 years post-referral. Survival analysis showed that youths who received multisystemic family preservation were less likely to be re-arrested than were youths who had received usual services. Such results represent the first controlled demonstration that family preservation, when delivered via a clearly specified treatment model, has lasting effects with serious juvenile offenders. Implications for family preservation and juvenile justice research are discussed.     

Proximal and Distal Predictors of Homophobia: Framing the Multivariate Roots of Outgroup Rejection1

A proximal-distal theoretical framework was developed to examine the multivariate roots of homophobia. Using data from a sample of 288 undergraduates who had participated in a computer-assisted panel study over a three-year period, the effects on homophobia of distal and proximal family factors (e. g., parental education and family environment), distal and proximal individual factors (e. g., personality constructs and current beliefs), and proximal individual-situational factors (e. g., acquaintance with homosexuals) were tested in regression analyses. Both analyses employing sets of variables varying in proximity to the homophobic attitude and hierarchical regression employing variables contributing significantly in each set supported the proposed framework. All sets predicted significantly when regressed separately on homophobia; the sets containing the distal factors contributed most weakly, and the sets containing the proximal factors contributed most strongly. In hierarchical regression analysis, this pattern maintained such that the incremental increase in r² decreased with the addition of each more distal set, with the most distal factors failing to contribute significantly to the prediction. The importance of study findings for attitude change efforts is discussed.     

EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS AND TREATMENT OF MULTIPLY CONTROLLED SELF-INJURY

A functional analysis of the self-injurious behavior (SIB) of 3 adults with profound developmental disabilities showed that each engaged in SIB in more than one assessment condition. Such outcomes may result from a failure to isolate the variable maintaining SIB, or they may reflect multiple sources of control over SIB. In order to identify more clearly the determinants of SIB, each subject was exposed to a series of treatments appropriate to one or both of the apparent functions of SIB. These treatments, applied sequentially on baselines appropriate to each behavioral function, identified the maintaining variables for SIB through differential outcomes across baselines. Results indicated that the SIB of 2 subjects was multiply controlled, confirming the outcomes of the functional analysis. However, the SIB of the 3rd subject was eliminated using a treatment designed for a single function, suggesting spurious results of the original assessment. Alternative interpretations of undifferentiated assessment data are discussed, as are analysis and treatment issues related to multiply determined behavior disorders.     

The "REST" program: a new treatment system for the oppositional defiant adolescent

This study compared the REST (Real Economy System for Teens) program with traditional talk therapy in the treatment of oppositional defiant adolescents. The REST program uses rules for five target behaviors: room care, personal hygiene, completion of chores, abusiveness, and safety violations. Objective measures and subjective parental ratings were taken. Twenty-five adolescents were assigned to each therapy group. In the REST program the adolescent was provided with only food and shelter. The adolescent had to earn money through the REST allowance program to pay for everything else. Earning the allowance was made contingent upon compliance with all rules for the five target behaviors. The results showed significantly greater improvement on all target behaviors for the REST program than for traditional therapy. In addition, parents of adolescents in the REST group reported that their adolescents seemed happier, more relaxed, and closer to them.     

The moral reasoning of juvenile delinquents: A meta-analysis

To test the hypothesized immaturity of juvenile delinquents' moral reasoning, the results of 15 studies of the moral reasoning of juvenile delinquents were integrated quantitatively using meta-analysis. Hedges and Olkin (1985) methods were used to (a) compute effect sizes, (b) test the homogeneity of the obtained effect sizes, and (c) test the statistical significance of the pooled mean effect size. The results supported the hypothesis that the moral reasoning of juvenile delinquents is immature. It was concluded that several other issues are in need of investigation.     

The effects of varying fins in Müller-Lyer and Holding illusions

Summary Five experiments were conducted to determine how distortion of spatial position induced by unidirectional Müller-Lyer fins varied as a function of angle and length of fins. Research employing Cornsweet's staircase method yielded ambiguous results, but psychophysical methods of magnitude estimation, paired comparisons, and production showed conclusively that distortions of position are affected by angle and length of fins in a manner similar to that found in distortions of length. It was concluded that similar strategies are employed in processing attributes of length and position and that a theory based on averaging of attributes within an attentional field describes the performance of real observers.Experiments 1 and 2 were reported in a Master's thesis submitted by Nancy Smith to the University of Manitoba in 1987.