An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

A developmental-genetic analysis of aggressive behavior in mice (Mus musculus): III. Behavioral mediation by heightened reactivity or immobility?

This research was designed to investigate development and behavioral mediation in lines of ICR mice that have been selectively bred for aggressive behavior. General behavioral reactivity and behavioral immobility have been implicated as potential mediators by prior analyses of preattack interactions. To evaluate the separate roles of these dispositions, the emergence of attacks in genetically selected lines was tracked for 11 years by three levels of analysis: over successive generations, over development, and over dyadic interactions. Convergent outcomes were observed in all three levels with respect to two findings: (a) Robust line differences were obtained in attack behaviors, and (b) strong associations were found between line differences in attacks and line differences in behavioral immobility. Conversely, all three levels of analysis indicated a weak and inconsistent association between line differences in attacks and measures of social and nonsocial reactivity.     

Effect of the interintromission interval on lordotic response and attack latency in golden hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus)

After 12-15 ejaculatory series, each consisting of several short intromissions (2- to 3-s vaginal penetration) and an ejaculation, male golden hamsters adopt an altered copulatory pattern consisting of long intromissions (5- to 25-s penetration with intravaginal thrusting). Receptivity declines and the tendency for the female to attack the male increases at about the time of this shift in copulatory pattern. Because the mean interintromission interval (III) between short intromissions is about 8 s compared to 100 s between long intromissions, it is possible that females detect this difference and adjust their mating accordingly. When the III between short intromissions from a rested male was experimentally increased to 100 s by use of a halter and lead device, the duration of lordosis was significantly less than that displayed by females paired with control males (8-s III) and virtually the same as that displayed by females paired with males that produced only long intromissions. This suggests that the female uses the temporal patterning of intravaginal stimulation as one criterion for terminating mating with a particular male.     

Perceptual organization of acoustic stimuli by budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus): III. Contact calls

We trained budgerigars by operant conditioning to discriminate among a set of contact calls in a same-different task and analyzed response latencies from this task by using multidimensional-scaling (MDS) and cluster-analysis procedures. Humans listened to the same calls and indicated the similarity between pairs of calls by a direct rating procedure. An MDS program (sindscal) was used to arrange these complex acoustic stimuli in multidimensional space reflecting perceptual organization. Multiple regression techniques were used to identify the acoustic characteristics of contact calls that were correlated with the perceptual dimensions obtained from MDS. A number of spectral characteristics (e.g., peak frequency, rate of frequency modulation, and concentration of spectral energy) emerged as important for both budgerigars and humans, but the relative salience of these cues differed for the two species. Additional tests with two groups of budgerigars--cagemates and noncagemates--showed that experience with calls can change the salience of various acoustic characteristics used for perceptual organization and individual recognition.     

Coping with victimization: The impact of rape on female survivors,male significant others,and parents

This paper reports on an unusual study of survivors of rape and the effects on the victim, her significant male other person, and her parents. All survivors were victims of the same rapist and were interviewed from 21 months to ten years after the event. The study indicates that the long-term effects of rape may be more significant than previous researchers and practitioners thought was the case. Recommendations are given for more effective help for survivors and those close to them.This study was funded by the Ohio Department of Mental Health, Office of Program Evaluation and Research, Columbus, Ohio, 1985.     

Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Cance and luck are not the same

In the mind of many people chance and luck act as real but different causes of events. Even in strictly defined situations as casino gambling, people may perceive influences of luck that help to overcome the negative expectancy defined by the rules of chance. Interviews with gamblers in casinos confirmed this idea. In two experiments it was established that the distinction between chance and luck are also made by ordinary subjects in everyday situations. The results revealed that chance is perceived to operate when an event is surprising, an unexpected coincidence. Luck is perceived when an event implies the escape from negative consequences, or the achievement of something that is important and difficult. The distinction between chance and luck can explain why people are trapped by the illusion of control, even when it is clear that they have no influence on the physical causation determining the outcomes of events. They cannot change the outcome of the roulette wheel, but they can employ their luck, which helps them to place their bets on the winning number.     

Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Does Women's Liberation Imply Children's Liberation?

Shulamith Firestone argues that for women to embrace equal rights without recognizing them for children is unjust. Protection of children is merely repressive control: they are infantilized by our treatment of them. I maintain that many children no longer get much protection, but neither are they being provided with an environment conducive to learning prudence or morality. Recognizing equal rights for children is likely to worsen this situation, not make it better.