Limitations in the Prediction of Mass Violence: Cautionary Tales

The incidents of mass violence that have occurred in the United States have been deeply disturbing to the public as well as to mental health professionals. The public, the media, as well as our patients, family members, and friends have reached out to mental health professionals in the hope that we can provide an understanding of these events that might serve to reduce their frequency in the future. This article explores how we can best respond to these requests, including the current limitations of psychologists in the prediction of mass violence. Two incidents of mass violence are used to illustrate these issues. The first is a review of the investigation of the explosion on the U.S.S. Iowa in April 1989 that resulted in the deaths of 47 seamen. The second incident used for illustration purposes will be the University of Texas Clock Tower shootings that occurred in August 1968. This article discusses the reliability and validity problems inherent in retrospective reviews of the personality characteristics of perpetrators, and the limitations imposed by base-rate issues in the prediction of mass violence.     

Patient preference as a predictor of outcomes in a pilot trial of person-centred counselling versus low-intensity cognitive behavioural therapy for persistent sub-threshold and mild depression

The aim of this analysis was to explore whether pre-treatment intervention preferences were related to outcomes for patients with persistent sub-threshold and mild depression who received one of two treatment types. Thirty-six patients took part in a two-arm, parallel group, pilot randomized controlled trial that compared short term (3 month and 6 month) outcomes of person-centred counselling (PCC) compared with low-intensity, CBT-based guided self-help (LICBT). Patient preferences for the two interventions were assessed at baseline assessment, and analysed as two independent linear variables (pro-PCC, pro-LICBT). Eight out of 30 interactions between baseline treatment preferences and treatment type were found to be significant at the p < .05 level. All were in the predicted direction, with patients who showed a stronger preference for a treatment achieving better outcomes in that treatment compared with the alternative. However, pro-LICBT was a stronger predictor of outcomes than pro-PCC. The findings provide preliminary support that treatment preferences should be taken into account when providing interventions for patients with persistent sub-threshold and mild depression. It is recommended that further research analyses preferences for different treatment types as independent variables, and examines preferences for format of treatment (e.g. guided self-help vs. face-to-face).     

Item frequency in probe-recognition memory search: Converging evidence for a role of item-response learning

In short-term probe-recognition tasks, observers make speeded old–new recognition judgments for items that are members of short lists. However, long-term memory (LTM) for items from previous lists influences current-list performance. The current experiment pursued the nature of these long-term influences—in particular, whether they emerged from item-familiarity or item-response-learning mechanisms. Subjects engaged in varied-mapping (VM) and consistent-mapping (CM) short-term probe-recognition tasks (e.g., Schneider & Shiffrin, Psychological Review, 84, 1–66, 1977). The key manipulation was to vary the frequency with which individual items were presented across trials. We observed a striking dissociation: Whereas increased presentation frequency led to benefits in performance for both old and new test probes in CM search, it resulted in interference effects for both old and new test probes in VM search. Formal modeling suggested that a form of item-response learning took place in both conditions: Each presentation of a test probe led to the storage of that test probe—along with its associated “old” or “new” response—as an exemplar in LTM. These item-response pairs were retrieved along with current-list items in driving observers’ old-– recognition judgments. We conclude that item-response learning is a core component of the LTM mechanisms that influence CM and VM memory search.     

Development and psychometric evaluation of a rapid intimate partner violence perpetration screening tool

Current methods of identifying intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration rely upon lengthy screening instruments, partner injury, and legal involvement. There exist no viable, brief screening tools to facilitate the rapid and early identification of IPV perpetration. The development of a brief IPV screening tool would reduce participant burden and compensation in research as well as aid in self‐identification and appropriate consultation for treatment. Three samples were recruited and administered an IPV assessment measure. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine a critical subset of items that could be rapidly administered and used to accurately detect physical IPV perpetrators. A set of four items emerged that were capable of differentiating between partner violent and nonviolent participants in Samples 1 (the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) = .95, SE = .02), 2 (AUC = .98, SE =.01), and 3 (AUC = .94, SE = .04). Internal consistency of the screening items was acceptable across samples and the scores on the screening tool were significantly associated in the expected direction with all assessed risk factors for IPV. Initial evaluation of the rapid IPV perpetration screening tool suggests that it may help satisfy the growing need to quickly determine research eligibility and to help college students self‐identify risk, offering objective data upon which to base the decision for follow‐up consultation.

     

Effectiveness of a Universal,Interdependent Group Contingency Program on Children's Academic Achievement: A Countywide Evaluation

The Good Behavior Game (GBG) is a universal prevention program designed to increase academic engagement and to decrease disruptive behavior in elementary school-age children. Teachers and other school personnel use interdependent group contingencies to improve students’ behavior in the classroom. Previous research indicates the GBG is efficacious in reducing behavior problems; however, little research has examined its effects on academic achievement in real-world settings. In this study, the authors evaluated the PAX GBG, a commercially available version of the GBG, as it is typically administered in elementary schools. The authors examined standardized reading and mathematics scores across one academic year for 949 students enrolled in the GBG or comparison classrooms. Results showed significant but small effects of the GBG on reading and mathematics. Results were greatest for boys, children with lower achievement scores at baseline, and students from more economically disadvantaged school districts. School personnel may find the PAX GBG useful in improving children's behavior and academic skills.     

Perceptual Intuitionism

In the recent metaethical literature there has been significant interest in the prospects for what I am denoting ‘Perceptual Intuitionism’: the view that normal ethical agents can and do have non‐inferential justification for first‐order ethical beliefs by having ethical perceptual experiences, e.g., Cullison 2010, McBrayer 2010, Vayrynen 2008. If true, it promises to constitute an independent a posteriori intuitionist epistemology, providing an alternative to intuitionist accounts which posit a priori intuition and/or emotion as sources of non‐inferentially justified ethical beliefs. As it is formulated, it is plausible that a necessary condition for the view is the truth of Ethical Perception: normal ethical agents can and do have perceptual experiences (at least some of which are veridical) as of the instantiation of ethical properties. In this paper a sophisticated and promising account of Ethical Perception is offered. Extant objections are shown to fail. However, it will be argued that it is far from obvious that the account of Perceptual Intuitionism which emerges constitutes an independent alternative to other intuitionist accounts. This is because we have reason to think that ethical perceptual experience may be epistemically dependent on other epistemic sources, e.g. a priori intuition or emotion.     

Millon's Contributions to Preadolescent and Adolescent Personality Assessment: Searching Onward and Upward

Theodore Millon was one of the most influential personality theorists of the 20th century. His theory was originally rooted in biosocial learning models and later reconceptualized as an evolutionary model. This foundation of Millon's work encompasses the entire life span. He had a genuine concern for humankind, especially children. His theory encompasses a comprehensive understanding of the relationship among childhood experiences, parenting styles, and recurring events throughout the life span in shaping the personality. Notable contributions to child and adolescent assessment are the Millon Adolescent Personality Inventory (Millon, Green, & Meagher, 1982 Millon, T., Green, C., & Meagher, R. B. (1982). Millon Adolescent Personality Inventory manual. Minneapolis, MN: National Computer Systems. [Google Scholar]), the Millon Adolescent Clinical Inventory (Millon, Millon, & Davis, 1993 Millon, T., Millon, C., & Davis, R. (1993). Millon Adolescent Clinical Inventory manual. Minneapolis, MN: National Computer Systems. [Google Scholar]), and the Millon Pre-Adolescent Clinical Inventory (M–PACI; Millon, Tringone, Millon, & Grossman, 2005 Millon, T., Tringone, R., Millon, C., & Grossman, S. (2005). Millon Pre-Adolescent Clinical Inventory manual. Minneapolis, MN: Pearson. [Google Scholar]). Given Millon's influence on the personality disorders section of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), the aforementioned instruments have personality constructs tied to familiar DSM categories, and among them, cover the age range of 9 to 18 years old. His development of the Millon Inventories revolutionized personality assessment in the United States and abroad. Millon's legacies will live on through his works and through the respect and compassion he demonstrated toward others.     

A Comparison of Homeless Male Veterans in Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas in Nebraska: A Methodological Caveat

This study explored differences between homeless male veterans in metropolitan and micropolitan cities in Nebraska on sociodemographic, housing, clinical, and psychosocial characteristics as well as health service use. A convenience sample of 151 homeless male veterans (112 metropolitan, 39 micropolitan) were recruited from Veterans Affairs facilities and area shelters in Omaha, Lincoln, Grand Island, and Hastings in Nebraska. Research staff conducted structured interviews with homeless veterans. Results showed that compared to homeless veterans in metropolitans, those in micropolitans were more likely to be White, unmarried, living in transitional settings, and were far more transient but reported greater social support and housing satisfaction. Veterans in micropolitans also reported more medical problems, diagnoses of anxiety and personality disorders, and unexpectedly, were more likely to report using various health services and less travel time for services. Together, these findings suggest access to homeless and health services for veterans in micropolitan areas may be facilitated through Veterans Affairs facilities and community providers that work in close proximity to one another. Many homeless veterans in these areas are transient, making them a difficult population to study and serve. Innovative ways to provide outreach to homeless veterans in micropolitan and more rural areas are needed.