Forecasting the impact of the federal sentencing guidelines

The Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, which created the U.S. Sentencing Commission, required that the commisson consider prison capacity in drafting sentencing guidelines. As part of the commission's efforts to meet this requirement, we developed a computer simulation capable of projecting the impact of the commission's guidelines on future sentences and prison populations. According to our projections, “straight” probation sentences will be reduced significantly under the guidelines. However, reducing the use of probation will generate only modest demands on the prisons, and then mostly for community corrections phased in over the course of 5 years. We also project that, while average time served for violent offenses will increase substantially, average time served for most property crimes will remain largely the same. Finally, while we forecast that federal prison populations will grow markedly by the end of this century, this is more a result of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986 and the career offender provision of the Comprehensive Crime Control Act of 1984 than a result of the guidelines.     

The near-death experience: Private or public?

This editorial contrasts the private, personal near-death experience with the public concept of the experience, and finds important messages for humanity that are common to both.     

Grading the ‘cultural literacy’ project

The essay examines the argument advanced by E.D. Hirsch, Jr., for instituting ‘cultural literacy’ as a fundamental priority of schools. A number of confusions and equivocations in Hirsch's reasoning are identified, and the propensity of his project to indoctrinate is exposed. Among the features of Hirsch's argument shown to be troubling are his shifting construal of ‘language’, his inconsistency about the requirements of cultural literacy, and his uncritical relation to traditional images of the American past and present. The upshot is to raise the question why Hirsch's project has elicited wide support and praise.