Counterfactuals for free

I would like to thank D. Føllesdal, R. Jeffrey, J. Maienschein, B. van Fraassen, and M. White for comments on earlier versions of this paper and for discussion of the ideas involved. Funds to support research leaves during which this was written came from several sources; the NEH (#FB-24865-87), the NSF (#SES 19308), and Arizona State University. All these are gratefully acknowledged.     

Child Behavior Profile types in a general population sample of boys 6 to 11 years old

Characteristics of Child Behavior Profile (CBP) types were studied in a general population sample of 202 boys aged 6 to 11 years. Parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist and teachers simultaneously rated the Teacher's Report Form. Overall, 39.7% of the boys were classified within a CBP type: 28.8% Internalizing and 10.9% Externalizing. The most common specific type was Somatic Complaints. Teachers rated the Externalizing CBP boys as showing robust externalizing behaviors in school. Also, boys with Externalizing profile types showed severe degrees of psychopathology in both home and school environments. An intraclass correlation of 35 or greater was found to identify boys with sufficiently severe psychopathology to warrant further clinical evaluation. Findings in this general population sample appear consistent with previous results in outpatient samples, and extend our understanding of the validity and clinical value for CBP types.     

Perceptual and motor factors in the imitation of simple temporal patterns

Summary This study investigated the relative importance of perceptual and motor factors in the imitation of simple temporal patterns. Previous research in which subjects tap out interval sequences using one finger has suggested that perceptual factors play an important role in response timing. Studies of bimanual tapping, in contrast, stress the importance of motor interactions between the two hands. In this experiment we compared the ability of subjects to tap out two-interval sequences using one finger, two fingers on one hand, and two fingers on opposite hands. The results showed almost identical performance under the three response conditions. It is suggested that the perceptual relations between intervals in a pattern were the main determinant of performance in this experiment.     

Countering perfectionism in research on clinical practice I: Surveying rationality changes after a single intensive ret intervention

The failure of controlled experimental research on therapy out-come to produce findings of clinical as well as statistical significance seems at least partly due to irrational, perfectionistic, beliefs about how research can be used to infer causes of therapeutic change. Irrational beliefs about controlled experimental designs and about incomplete sampling, in particular, appear to prevent appropriate consideration of probatively valuable quasi-experimental research. Models of more rational alternatives are identified, and an example of the functional advantages of adopting these rational beliefs is explicated. The example demonstrates that single-shot pre-post survey data from self-selected catch-as-catch-can samples can permit legitimate, but not absolutely certain, conclusions about the efficacy and efficiency of RET.Albert Ellis, Ph.D. is executive director of the Institute for Rational-Emotive Therapy in New York City.     

Robust interactive decision-analysis (RID): Behavioral results and implications

We have proposed a novel interactive procedure for performing decision analysis, called Robust Interactive Decision Analysis (RID), which permits a decision maker (DM) to voluntarily and interactively express strong (viz, sure) binary preferences for actions, partial decision functions, and full decision functions, and only imprecise probability and utility function assessments. These serve as INPUTS TO operators to prune the state probability space and decision space until an optimal choice strategy is obtained. The viability of the RID approach depends on a DM's ability to provide such information consistently and meaningfully. On a limited scale we experimentally investigate the behavioral implications of the RID method in order to ascertain its potential operational feasibility and viability. More specifically, we examine whether a DM can (1) express strong preferences between pairs of vectors of unconditional and conditional payoffs or utilities consistently; (2) provide imprecise (ordinal and interval) state probabilities that are individually as well as mutually consistent with the state probabilities imputed from the expressed strong preferences. The results show that a DM can provide strong individually and mutually consistent preference and ordinal probability information. Moreover, most individuals also appear to be able to provide interval probabilities that are individually and mutually consistent with their strong preference inputs. However, the several violations observed, our small sample size, and the limited scope of our investigation suggest that further experimentation is needed to determine whether and/or how such inputs should be elicited. Overall, the results indicate that the RID method is behaviorally viable.     

Reliability of job evaluation: Differences across sex-typed jobs

Recent work has questioned whether a single job evaluation instrument can reliably measure jobs from different job families. To test this, a generalizability study was done to determine the reliability of three job evaluation instruments: one for male-dominated jobs, MIMA-Shop, one for female-dominated jobs, MIMA-office and one which evaluated both types, FES. Initial results indicated that the latter instrument suffered no loss in reliability, and that all three instruments were equally highly reliable. A second analysis evaluated the reliability of the FES for male-dominated jobs separately from the reliability of the FES for female-dominated jobs. These results indicated no significant difference in reliability for male-dominated jobs and for female-dominated jobs. Implications of these findings were discussed.A previous version of this paper was presented at the 95th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association at New York City, August 1987.     

Using the microcomputer as a visual aid in the statistics classroom

A microcomputer running a spreadsheet program makes an excellent visual aid for demonstrating statistical concepts and procedures. Some advantages of this setup over traditional visual aids are described. Several statistical demonstrations that I have found to work well are presented.