The probability of war in then-crises problem: Modeling new alternatives to Wright's solution

In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1–(1–p) ⁿ , wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the other based on the logic of conditional probabilities. Analysis shows that, while Wright's solution is robust with regard to the general overall behavior ofp andn, some significant qualitative and quantitative differences emerge from the alternative solutions. In particular,P converges to 1 only in a special case (Wright's) and not generally.C.C.-R. acknowledges support provided by the Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, the Research Board of the University of Illinois, and grant SES-84-00877 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.     

Stress in time

The goals of this research were to determine whether speakers adjust the stress patterns of words within sentences to create an alternation between strong and weak beats and to explore whether this rhythmic alternation contributes to the characteristics stress differences between two major lexical categories of English. Two experiments suggested that speakers do alter lexical stress in accordance with rhythmic biases. When speakers produced disyllabic pseudowords in sentence contexts, they were more likely to place stress on the first syllable when the pseudoword was preceded by a weak stress and followed by a strong one than when the strong stress preceded and the weak followed. This occurred both when the pseudowords served as nouns and when they served as verbs. Text analyses further revealed that weakly stressed elements precede nouns more often than verbs, whereas such elements follow verbs more often than nouns. Thus, disyllabic nouns are more likely than disyllabic verbs to occupy contexts biased toward trochaic rhythm, a finding consistent with leftward dominant stress in disyllabic English nouns. The history of stress changes in English nouns and verbs also conforms with the view that rhythmic context may have contributed to the evolution of stress differences. Together, the findings suggest that the citation stress patterns of words may to some degree reflect adaptations of lexical knowledge to conditions of language performance.     

Learned helplessness in the cockroach (Periplaneta americana)

For 3 consecutive days cockroaches (Periplaneta americana) were exposed to either escapable, inescapable, or no shock in an escape task. Twenty-four hours later they were tested in a shuttlebox escape task. There were reliable differences between escapable and inescapable animals and between inescapable and control animals in both escape latencies and the number of failures to escape.     

Isolation-dependent enhancement of 2-[14C]deoxyglucose uptake in the forebrain of zebra finch males

In a previous study (H. J. Bischof & K. Herrmann (1986), Behavioral Brain Research, 21, 215-221) we demonstrated that four forebrain areas of the zebra finch male are activated in situations which arouse the animal, for example when the birds are chased around the cage or when they are exposed to a female. These areas, the hyperstriatum accessorium-dorsale (HAD), a part of the medial neo-hyperstriatum (MNH), the lateral neo-hyperstriatum (LNH), and a portion of the caudal archi-neostriatum (ANC), show enhanced 2-[14C]deoxyglucose (2-DG) uptake according to the experimental situation. On the basis of these experiments, we examined whether the activation of the areas is correlated with motor activity and is influenced by different isolation times prior to a 2-DG experiment, where courtship of the male birds is elicited by exposing them to a female zebra finch. For this purpose, we isolated male zebra finches for 1 day, 1 week, or 8 weeks, respectively, before we injected the 2-DG and exposed the birds to a female. During the experiment, besides other activities, the number of song motifs performed by the bird and the frequency of changing perches was recorded. Our experiments demonstrate that there is a weak negative correlation between motor activity and 2-DG uptake, and a positive correlation between isolation time and 2-DG uptake. We suggest that long isolation blocks courtship behavior by some unknown mechanisms, and that the "internal drive" of the animal, which possibly corresponds with the activity of the four forebrain areas, is enhanced by isolation and by the fact that the birds do not perform the consummatory behavior. Our results also demonstrate that the 2-DG method can show up small differences in the internal state of an animal, which cannot easily be detected by behavioral measurements.     

Is it smart to play the horses? Comment on "A day at the races: a study of IQ, expertise, and cognitive complexity" (Ceci & Liker, 1986)

Ceci and Liker (1986b) presented data that they contended shows two things: (a) Handicapping harness races is a cognitively complex undertaking that can be captured by a multiple regression model, and (b) neither overall skill at handicapping nor the complexity of the mental model used is related to standard measures of intelligence. The first contention is not at issue. But the second contention, that handicapping performance is unrelated to IQ, is not supported by the data presented; in fact, the opposite conclusion seems more likely. The purpose of this comment is to point out errors frequently made in individual-differences research concerning population definition, sample selection, dependent and independent variable reliability and validity and interpretation of results.     

Does spreading activation summate?

Summary Network models of semantic memory assume implicitly or explicitly that the degree of activation of a node is a monotonic function of the total amount of excitation reaching that node from all sources. For example, the activation level of the node representing apple should be greater if it is receiving excitation due to the activation of the nodes for fruit and pear than if only one of these neighboring nodes is activated. This notion was tested by presenting semantic primes 80 ms or 320 ms before a letter string (e.g., apple or ipple) requiring a lexical decision. The prime stimuli consisted of a pair of simultaneous items that were identical in the single prime condition (e.g., fruit/fruit or pear/pear) or different in the double prime condition (e.g., fruit/pear or pear/fruit), and were either related (target = apple) or unrelated (target = copper) to the target, or neutral. As predicted by the summation of semantic activation assumption of network models there was a larger priming effect (in the 320 ms SOA condition) following the simultaneous activation of two related nodes than following the activation of only one node.This research was supported by grants to the first author from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.