The probability of war in then-crises problem: Modeling new alternatives to Wright's solution

In hisStudy of War, Q. Wright considered a model for the probability of warP during a period ofn crises, and proposed the equationP=1–(1–p) ⁿ , wherep is the probability of war escalating at each individual crisis. This probability measure was formally derived recently by Cioffi-Revilla (1987), using the general theory of political reliability and an interpretation of the n-crises problem as a branching process. Two new, alternate solutions are presented here, one using D. Bernoulli's St. Petersburg Paradox as an analogue, the other based on the logic of conditional probabilities. Analysis shows that, while Wright's solution is robust with regard to the general overall behavior ofp andn, some significant qualitative and quantitative differences emerge from the alternative solutions. In particular,P converges to 1 only in a special case (Wright's) and not generally.C.C.-R. acknowledges support provided by the Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, the Research Board of the University of Illinois, and grant SES-84-00877 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.     

Does spreading activation summate?

Summary Network models of semantic memory assume implicitly or explicitly that the degree of activation of a node is a monotonic function of the total amount of excitation reaching that node from all sources. For example, the activation level of the node representing apple should be greater if it is receiving excitation due to the activation of the nodes for fruit and pear than if only one of these neighboring nodes is activated. This notion was tested by presenting semantic primes 80 ms or 320 ms before a letter string (e.g., apple or ipple) requiring a lexical decision. The prime stimuli consisted of a pair of simultaneous items that were identical in the single prime condition (e.g., fruit/fruit or pear/pear) or different in the double prime condition (e.g., fruit/pear or pear/fruit), and were either related (target = apple) or unrelated (target = copper) to the target, or neutral. As predicted by the summation of semantic activation assumption of network models there was a larger priming effect (in the 320 ms SOA condition) following the simultaneous activation of two related nodes than following the activation of only one node.This research was supported by grants to the first author from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

The Relationship Between Parenting Style and Children's Adjustment: The Parents' Perspective

We examined the relationship between authoritative and authoritarian parenting styles and socio-emotional adjustment in elementary school children as reported from the parents' perspective. Mothers of first through fifth graders provided information about parenting style as well as children's competencies and problem behaviors. Teachers provided ratings of children's adjustment for a subset of the participants. Results indicated that authoritative parenting was associated negatively with parent- and teacher-rated maladaptive behavior, and positively with indicators of healthy adjustment. Correlations between authoritarian parenting and adjustment were either small or non-significant. Regression analyses indicated that authoritative parenting was more predictive of children's competence than maladaptation (22% versus 10% of variance). The effects of parenting style on adjustment were not moderated by demographic variables, such as the child's gender, grade level, ethnicity, and family income.     

Assisting At-Risk College Students With Attributional Retraining and Effective Teaching1

Attributional retraining appears to be an effective remedial intervention for college students. However, the potential moderating effects of student and classroom characteristics have not yet been investigated systematically. In two studies, attributional retraining was provided to low- and high-risk students, followed by a videotaped lecture presented by either an ineffective or effective instructor. Attributional retraining enhanced achievement on a lecture-based achievement test only when combined with effective teaching, improving the achievement of students who had previously performed poorly (Experiment l), and of low-achieving externals (Experiment 2). The intervention provided no advantage for previously successful students and low-achieving internals. Moreover, attributional retraining induced a more internal attribution profile in students with an external locus, and increased expectations of future success in both externals and internals, but again only when students also received effective instruction. These results suggest that contextual factors related to the classroom, such as quality of instruction, and individual differences have to be considered when developing attributional retraining programs.     

ANALYSIS OF A HIGH-PROBABILITY INSTRUCTIONAL SEQUENCE AND TIME-OUT IN THE TREATMENT OF CHILD NONCOMPLIANCE

This study evaluated the effectiveness of high-probability requests and time-out as treatments for noncompliance that appeared to be maintained by contingent attention in 2 developmental normal children. The introduction of high-probability requests increased compliance for 1 child but not the other. Time-out was effective with both children, and improvements in compliance were maintained at an 8-week follow-up.     

Standards for Organizational Consultation Assessment and Evaluation Instruments

Although consultation researchers and practitioners have called attention to the need for more psychometrically sound instruments, little advancement has occurred in this area. The authors outline key quantitative and qualitative psychometric standards for organizational consultation assessment and evaluation instruments. In addition, a framework and review of several existing questionnaires are presented. Implications for instrument use by practitioners and suggestions for further research are discussed.     

Effects of manual versus voice-activated dialing during simulated driving

We measured driving performance (lane-keeping errors, driving times, and glances away from the road scene) in a video driving simulator for 24 volunteers who each drove alone on a 10.6-km multicurved course while simultaneously placing calls on a mobile phone subscribed to a voice-activated dialing system. Driving performance also was measured for the same distance while participants manually dialed phone numbers and while they drove without dialing. There were 22% fewer lane-keeping errors (p<.01) and 56% fewer glances away from the road scene (p<.01) when they used voice-activated dialing as compared to manual dialing. Significantly longer driving times in both of the dialing conditions as compared to the No Dialing condition are discussed in terms of the hypothesis that drivers decrease driving speed to compensate for the demands of the secondary phone tasks.     

Family Unification with Reactive Attachment Disorder Children: A Brief Treatment

This is a case study of a family with a child (age eight) with reactive attachment disorder and the subsequent individual and family therapy. Treatment of choice for the child was Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) and supportive educational counseling for the parents and family. Qualitative evaluation of the process demonstrated that the parents observed an instant change in the child's attitude. The child reported that she felt better about family, school, and truthfulness, and stated about the therapy: It opened a window for me. A 12-month evaluation demonstrated continued positive effects.