Evaluation of a behavioral measure of risk taking: the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART)

The present study (N = 86) sought to evaluate a laboratory-based behavioral measure of risk taking (the Balloon Analogue Risk Task; BART) and to test associations between this measure and self-report measures of risk-related constructs as well as self-reported real-world risk behaviors. The BART evidenced sound experimental properties, and riskiness on the BART was correlated with scores on measures of sensation seeking, impulsivity, and deficiencies in behavioral constraint. Also, riskiness on the BART was correlated with the self-reported occurrence of addictive, health, and safety risk behaviors, with the task accounting for variance in these behaviors beyond that accounted for by demographics and self-report measures of risk-related constructs. These results indicate that the BART may be a useful tool in the assessment of risk taking.     

Argumentum Ex Divinatione: Divination and Civic Argument in the Ancient World

This argument explores transcultural commonalities among civic arguments from divination in global antiquity. In the ancient world, proponents engaged in kisceral arguments deriving from divinatory signs: arguments ex divinatione regarding prospective civic action. Under ideal circumstances, their aim was to help insure that the collective action of human political organizations was aligned with the natural synchrony of the cosmos. Thus, civic arguments from divination were employed to anticipate the future’s course based on the signs the system produced holistically. In ancient Mesopotamia, China, and Rome, divination was employed as a tool for aligning the order of human society to that of a conception of metaphysical or cosmic order. By comparing these argumentative examples and rationales, we see a broader context for the way in which humans made arguments toward political futurity outside more conventional syllogistic formulations concerning causation. Rather, the argumentative strategies of many ancient cultures embraced an understanding of the future as the logical outcome of a holistic dynamism in kairotic time.

     

Neuroradiologic evaluation of craniocerebral trauma

Modern imaging techniques have greatly aided our ability to diagnose the effects of craniocerebral trauma. Computed tomography (CT), introduced in 1973, revolutionized the evaluation of changes related to trauma, allowing accurate diagnosis of intracerebral and extracerebral areas of blood accumulation. It became readily apparent that in most cases CT was the only exam necessary prior to surgical treatment. CT also accurately evaluates facial bone trauma. Magnetic resonance (MR), widely introduced in 1983, has also aided in diagnosis and is most accurate in cases of subacute and chronic injury, particularly cases involving shearing injuries. Skull films continue to be useful for linear skull fractures.     

Fifth grade school adjustment and later arrest rate: A longitudinal study of middle school antisocial boys

This study investigated the efficacy of three different regression models in predicting arrest rate over the fifth to seventh grade range for a sample of antisocial and at risk control middle school boys (N=76). These boys were selected from a larger sample of approximately 200 boys and their families for inclusion in a long term longitudinal study beginning in the fourth grade. Subjects in the present study were identified when they were in the fifth grade and school measures of adjustment were recorded annually for them on two occasions (fall, spring) through the ninth grade. Predictors were derived from the following variables: (a) teacher ratings of social skills; (b) direct observations of academic engagement in classroom settings; (c) direct observations of the playground social behavior of target subjects and peers; and (d) discipline contacts with the principal's office as extracted from archival school records. These predictor variables appeared to assess respectively teacher related and peer related forms of school adjustment. The regression models investigated yielded R-Squares of approximately 30 between arrest rate and two to three predictor variables in each analysis. However, following the deletion of two subject cases that represented extreme instances of underprediction (i.e., subjects who were arrested [i.e., seven arrests each] but whose fifth grade behavioral profiles suggested they would not be), the obtained R-Squares increased to approximately .55. Implications of the findings for the early screening and identification of at risk students are discussed.     

Causal Inference from Noise

Correlation is not causation is one of the mantras of the sciences—a cautionary warning especially to fields like epidemiology and pharmacology where the seduction of compelling correlations naturally leads to causal hypotheses. The standard view from the epistemology of causation is that to tell whether one correlated variable is causing the other, one needs to intervene on the system—the best sort of intervention being a trial that is both randomized and controlled. In this paper, we argue that some purely correlational data contains information that allows us to draw causal inferences: statistical noise. Methods for extracting causal knowledge from noise provide us with an alternative to randomized controlled trials that allows us to reach causal conclusions from purely correlational data.     

Power of pairwise comparisons in the equal variance and unequal sample size case

A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to compare five, pairwise multiple comparison procedures. The number of means varied from 4 to 6 and the sample size ratio varied from 1 to 60. Procedures were evaluated on the basis of Type I errors, any‐pair power and all‐pairs power. Four procedures were shown to be conservative, while the fifth provided adequate control of Type I errors only for restricted values of sample size ratios. No procedure was found to be uniformly most powerful. The Tukey‐Kramer procedure was found to provide the best any‐pair power provided it is applied without requiring a significant overall F test. In most cases, the Hayter‐Fisher modification of the Tukey‐Kramer was found to provide very good any‐pair power and to be uniformly more powerful than the Tukey‐Kramer when a significant overall F test is required. A partition‐based version of Peritz's method usually provided the greatest all‐pairs power. A modification of the Shaffer‐Welsch was found to be useful in certain conditions.     

John B. Watson's alleged sex research: an appraisal of the evidence

In 1974, a story was published about clandestine research done by John B. Watson that was judged to be so reprehensible that it was offered as the real reason he was fired from his faculty position at Johns Hopkins University in 1920, at perhaps the peak of his academic career. Watson's dismissal from Johns Hopkins may have been the most important event in his career, and it almost certainly altered the history of American psychology. Thus, this story has great significance. The claims of the story, however, have never been validated or invalidated. This article examines the evidence for and against the existence of such research and discusses Watson's academic dismissal in light of that evidence.     

Bigotry and Religious Belief

Attacks on religious doctrines are often characterized as a form of bigotry and traditional analyses of the concept support this view. I argue that regarding such attacks as bigotry is inconsistent with a variety of contemporary moral attitudes and social goals. I offer an improved account of when we should ascribe bigotry – one that is more coherent with views on tolerance and the importance of open debate. This account focuses upon the justification for hostile attitudes and also limits the target of bigoted thought to persons, not to doctrines, religious or otherwise. I argue that while it is indeed possible to adopt bigoted attitudes toward people classified on the basis of their religious beliefs, it is not possible to hold bigoted attitudes against the beliefs themselves.