The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors

Findings in recent research on the ‘conjunction fallacy’ have been taken as evidence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea that norms should be content‐blind—in the present case, the assumption that sound reasoning requires following the conjunction rule of probability theory. But content‐blind norms overlook some of the intelligent ways in which humans deal with uncertainty, for instance, when drawing semantic and pragmatic inferences. In a series of studies, we first show that people infer nonmathematical meanings of the polysemous term ‘probability’ in the classic Linda conjunction problem. We then demonstrate that one can design contexts in which people infer mathematical meanings of the term and are therefore more likely to conform to the conjunction rule. Finally, we report evidence that the term ‘frequency’ narrows the spectrum of possible interpretations of ‘probability’ down to its mathematical meanings, and that this fact—rather than the presence or absence of ‘extensional cues’—accounts for the low proportion of violations of the conjunction rule when people are asked for frequency judgments. We conclude that a failure to recognize the human capacity for semantic and pragmatic inference can lead rational responses to be misclassified as fallacies. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The God Mysticism Scale: a Brief Version

Pastoral Psychology - This paper presents two studies concerned with developing a brief version of the 32-item God Mysticism Scale (GMS; Hood Jr. and Williamson Journal of Psychology and...     

Too good to be true? Psychological responses to uncommon options in risk–reward environments

Risks and rewards, or payoffs and probabilities, are inversely related in many choice environments. We investigated people's psychological responses to uncommon combinations of risk and reward that deviate from learned regularities (e.g., options that offer a high payoff with an unusually high probability) as they evaluated risky options. In two experiments (N = 183), participants first priced monetary gambles drawn from environments in which risks and rewards were negatively correlated, positively correlated, or uncorrelated. In later trials, they evaluated gambles with uncommon combinations of risk and reward—that is, options that deviated from the respective environment's risk–reward structure. Pricing, response times, and (in Experiment 2) pupil dilation were recorded. In both experiments, participants took more time when responding to uncommon compared to foreseeable options or when the same options were presented in an uncorrelated risk–reward environment. This result was most pronounced when the uncommon gambles offered higher expected values compared to the other gambles in the set. Moreover, these uncommon, high‐value options were associated with an increase in pupil size. These results suggest that people's evaluations of risky options are based not only on the options' payoffs and probabilities but also on the extent to which they fit the risk–reward structure of the environment.     

Information structuring improves recall of emergency discharge information: a randomized clinical trial

This article examines the extent to which structuring Emergency Department discharge information improves the ability to recall that information, and whether such benefits interact with relevant prior knowledge. Using three samples of students with different levels of prior medical knowledge, we investigated the amount of information recalled after structured vs. non-structured presentation of information. Across all student samples, the structured discharge information led to a relative increase in recalled items of 17% compared to non-structured discharge information (M = 9.70, SD = 4.96 vs. M = 8.31, SD = 4.93). In the sample with least medical knowledge, however, the structured discharge information resulted in a relative increase in recall by 42% (M = 8.12 vs. M = 5.71). These results suggest that structuring discharge information can be a useful tool to improve recall of information and is likely to be most beneficial for patient populations with lower levels of medical knowledge.     

How the threat of losses makes people <Emphasis Type="Italic">explore</Emphasis> more than the promise of gains

Until recently, loss aversion has been inferred exclusively from choice asymmetries in the loss and gain domains. This study examines the impact of the prospect of losses on exploratory search in a situation in which exploration is costly. Taking advantage of the largest available data set of decisions from experience, analyses showed that most people explore payoff distributions more under the threat of a loss than under the promise of a gain. This behavioral regularity thus occurs in both costly search and cost-free search (see Lejarraga, Hertwig, & Gonzalez, Cognition, 124, 334–342, 2012). Furthermore, a model comparison identified the simple win-stay-lose-shift heuristic as a likely candidate mechanism behind the loss–gain exploration asymmetry observed. In contrast, models assuming loss aversion failed to reproduce the asymmetry. Moreover, the asymmetry was not simply a precursor of loss aversion but a phenomenon separate from it. These findings are consistent with the recently proposed notion of intensified vigilance in the face of potential losses.     

默读和出声阅读的副中央凹预视效应

以往研究大多考察默读中是否存在副中央凹预视效应及存在何种类型的预视效应,很少有研究探讨出声阅读中的副中央凹预视效应以及阅读中预视信息提取的时间进程。本研究采用边界范式,通过两个眼动实验考察默读和出声阅读中的副中央凹预视效应及预视信息提取的时间进程。实验1发现在默读和出声阅读中都存在副中央凹预视效应,但是默读中副中央凹预视效应更大。实验2发现出声阅读中在注视中央凹词汇的早期不能提取副中央凹处信息。两个实验的结果表明默读和出声阅读条件下的副中央凹加工是不同的,需要用不同的眼动模型解释。     

THE HEART OF MY CONCERN

Abstract. This brief piece summarizes the author's lifelong personal credo, particularly his attempt to translate traditional religious wisdom into modern scientific concepts. Contemporary science reveals to us the vast system of natural processes that has brought the universe, our planet, and our species into existence. This natural system is in fact a "more-than-human 'Lord of History,'" corresponding to traditional ideas of God. This Lord of History not only has created us but also sustains us—not just externally but also our interior psychic and spiritual nature. We are challenged to discern the requirements that this system of natural processes places upon us; if we conform to these requirements, we shall be blessed, and we will be enabled as co-creators of our future evolution.     

The missing piece: a sociological autopsy of firearm suicide in the United States

Social, economic, violence, political, and gun access predictors of suicide and gun suicide were examined via sociological autopsy. The model predicting suicide rates overall had the best results, χ(2) (9, N=50)=5.279 (CMIN, the goodness of fit statistic that represents the minimum discrepancy between the unrestricted sample covariance matrix and the restricted covariance matrix) p=.809, [the goodness of fit statistic that represents the minimum discrepancy between the unrestricted sample covariance matrix and the restricted covariance matrix] indicating an excellent fit of the data and theoretical model. The model explained 76% of the variance in state suicide rates and was a significantly better predictor than one could expect by chance, F(6,43)=22.889, p<.001). All path coefficients were significant predictors of suicide with the exception of violence climate, which was not included. This study contributes to the theoretical knowledge by adding a comprehensive framework of analysis and model useful for prevention.