A comparative evaluation of several prominent methods of oblique factor transformation

The oblimax, promax, maxplane, and Harris-Kaiser techniques are compared. For five data sets, of varying reliability and factorial complexity, each having a graphic oblique solution (used as criterion), solutions obtained using the four methods are evaluated on (1) hyperplane-counts, (2) agreement of obtained with graphic within-method primary factor correlations and angular separations, (3) angular separations between obtained and corresponding graphic primary axes. The methods are discussed and ranked (descending order): Harris-Kaiser, promax, oblimax, maxplane. The Harris-Kaiser procedure—independent cluster version for factorially simple data,P'P proportional to , with equamax rotations, for complex—is recommended.This paper is based upon part of the author's doctoral dissertation [Hakstian, 1969] completed at the University of Colorado. The author is greatly indebted to Dr. Gene V Glass, who, as thesis advisor, generously contributed his time, erudition, and encouragement.     

Post-retinal storage? Some further observations on Parks’ camel as seen through the eye of a needle

Parks recently reported observations with an apparatus in which successive slices of a stimulus figure could be entered on the same retinal locus. He reported that when this was done, a visual percept of the figure appeared, but one that appeared condensed in length. From this he argued that the slices, differing only in time of arrival, must be stored post-retinally and then reconstructed spatially to form the coherent figure again. In attempting to replicate this important conclusion, we found, contrary to Parks, that the appearance of the percept occurred only when the slices were spread out over the retina, and not when they were entered on the same spot. Thus, the percept is probably due to much more understandable poor temporal resolution, rather than spatial integration. Shape distortions were found corresponding to Parks’ reports, but only in the absence of any visual percepts. In spite of the failure to support all of Parks’ conclusions, the effects are seen as very intriguing ones, and may have critical theoretical ramifications.     

Scoring weighted multiple keyed tests on the IBM counting sorter

Tests or personal inventories with differential item response weights may be scored by means of punch card equipment. Detailed instructions are given for preparing the cards and scoring the forms. The scoring speed is approximately four to eight times that attained by manual scoring.The author is indebted to H. M. Cox, University of Nebraska, for certain suggestions on the columnar coding and the method of checking herein presented.     

Coerced or nonvoluntary confessions

Police may engage in deceptive and coercive interrogations to obtain confessions. When a confession is later retracted, judges and juries must assess the totality of the circumstances surrounding the confession, including the interrogation techniques used and the effects of these tactics on the particular defendant. A suspect who is vulnerable and confused or who is given false evidence by a coercive interrogator may produce a false confession. Expert testimony may be necessary to help jurors understand the circumstances that lead to nonvoluntary confessions. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors

Findings in recent research on the ‘conjunction fallacy’ have been taken as evidence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea that norms should be content‐blind—in the present case, the assumption that sound reasoning requires following the conjunction rule of probability theory. But content‐blind norms overlook some of the intelligent ways in which humans deal with uncertainty, for instance, when drawing semantic and pragmatic inferences. In a series of studies, we first show that people infer nonmathematical meanings of the polysemous term ‘probability’ in the classic Linda conjunction problem. We then demonstrate that one can design contexts in which people infer mathematical meanings of the term and are therefore more likely to conform to the conjunction rule. Finally, we report evidence that the term ‘frequency’ narrows the spectrum of possible interpretations of ‘probability’ down to its mathematical meanings, and that this fact—rather than the presence or absence of ‘extensional cues’—accounts for the low proportion of violations of the conjunction rule when people are asked for frequency judgments. We conclude that a failure to recognize the human capacity for semantic and pragmatic inference can lead rational responses to be misclassified as fallacies. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The public's probabilistic numeracy: How tasks,education and exposure to games of chance shape it

As we navigate a world full of uncertainties and risks, dominated by statistics, we need to be able to think statistically. Very few studies investigating people's ability to understand simple concepts and rules from probability theory have drawn representative samples from the public. For this reason we investigated a representative sample of 1000 Swiss citizens, using six probabilistic problems. Most reasoned appropriately in problems representing pure applications of probability theory, but failed to do so in approximations of real‐world scenarios – a disparity we replicated in a sample of first‐year psychology students. Additionally, education is associated with probabilistic numeracy in the former but not the latter type of problems. We discuss possible reasons for these task disparities and suggest that gaining a comprehensive picture of citizens' probabilistic competence and its determinants requires using both types of tasks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability and Validity of the Dyadic Observed Communication Scale (DOCS)

We evaluated the reliability and validity of the Dyadic Observed Communication Scale (DOCS) coding scheme, which was developed to capture a range of communication components between parents and adolescents. Adolescents and their caregivers were recruited from mental health facilities for participation in a large, multi-site family-based HIV prevention intervention study. Seventy-one dyads were randomly selected from the larger study sample and coded using the DOCS at baseline. Preliminary validity and reliability of the DOCS was examined using various methods, such as comparing results to self-report measures and examining interrater reliability. Results suggest that the DOCS is a reliable and valid measure of observed communication among parent-adolescent dyads that captures both verbal and nonverbal communication behaviors that are typical intervention targets. The DOCS is a viable coding scheme for use by researchers and clinicians examining parent-adolescent communication. Coders can be trained to reliably capture individual and dyadic components of communication for parents and adolescents and this complex information can be obtained relatively quickly.