On the relative importance of linear model and human judge(s) in combined forecasting

When and to what extent should forecasts rely on linear model or human judgment? The judgmental forecasting literature suggests that aggregating model and judge using a simple 50:50 split tends to outperform the two inputs alone. However, current research disregards the important role that the structure of the task, judges’ level of expertise, and the number of individuals providing a forecasting judgment may play. Ninety-two music industry professionals and 88 postgraduate students were recruited in a field experiment to predict chart entry positions of pop music singles in the UK and Germany. The results of a lens model analysis show how task structure and domain-specific expertise moderate the relative importance of model and judge. The study also delineates an upper boundary to which aggregating multiple judgments in model-expert combinations adds predictive accuracy. It is suggested that ignoring the characteristics of task and/or judge may lead to suboptimal forecasting performance.     

The interplay of received social support and self-regulatory factors in smoking cessation

Objective: In smoking cessation, individual self-regulation and social support have both proven to be useful. However, the roles of self-regulatory processes and social support are mostly examined separately. The present study aims at examining the unique and joint interactive effects of self-regulation as specified in the health action process approach (HAPA) and social support on smoking cessation. The study tested whether social support can compensate for low levels of self-regulation or whether synergistic effects emerge.

Design & Measures: Around a self-set quit date, 99 smokers completed baseline questionnaires on HAPA-variables, smoking-specific received social support and smoking cessation (continuous abstinence and point prevalence), with a follow-up Cpproximately 29?days after the quitdate.

Results: Social support moderated the association between volitional self-efficacy and smoking, as well as coping planning and smoking but not between action planning and smoking. No compensatory effect of social support for lower levels of individual regulation emerged but the combination of high levels of the individual variables and social support was related to successful smoking cessation, indicating a synergistic effect.

Conclusions: The results confirm the importance of examining both self-regulation and social factors in smoking cessation. This should be considered when developing future interventions for smoking cessation.     

The impact of cognitive control on children’s goal monitoring in a time-based prospective memory task

The present study investigated whether developmental changes in cognitive control may underlie improvements of time-based prospective memory. Five-, 7-, 9-, and 11-year-olds (N = 166) completed a driving simulation task (ongoing task) in which they had to refuel their vehicle at specific points in time (PM task). The availability of cognitive control resources was experimentally manipulated by imposing a secondary task that required divided attention. Children completed the driving simulation task both in a full-attention condition and a divided-attention condition where they had to carry out a secondary task. Results revealed that older children performed better than younger children on the ongoing task and PM task. Children performed worse on the ongoing and PM tasks in the divided-attention condition compared to the full-attention condition. With respect to time monitoring in the final interval prior to the PM target, divided attention interacted with age such that older children’s time monitoring was more negatively affected by the secondary task compared to younger children. Results are discussed in terms of developmental shifts from reactive to proactive monitoring strategies.     

Structural Equation Modeling of Spatial Presence: The Influence of Cognitive Processes and Traits

This article examines the formation process of spatial presence, which is conceived as a two-step process involving the construction of a mental model of the mediated environment, followed by the emergence of spatial presence. During both stages, cognitive processes and user traits are in effect. We present data derived from a pooled set of data of three studies using the same virtual environment. Structural equation modeling is used to confirm the proposed theoretical model. The results show that attention and the trait of visual spatial imagery are positive predictors of the mental model of the mediated environment. In the second step, the formation of spatial presence is governed by involvement, the suspension of disbelief, and the domain-specific interest, together with the mental model.     

Priming the mental time-line: effects of modality and processing mode

The notion of a mental time-line (i.e., past corresponds to left and future corresponds to right) supports the conceptual metaphor view assuming that abstract concepts like “time” are grounded in cognitively more accessible concepts like “space.” In five experiments, we further investigated the relationship between temporal and spatial representations and examined whether or not the spatial correspondents of time are unintentionally activated. We employed a priming paradigm, in which visual or auditory prime words (i.e., temporal adverbs such as yesterday, tomorrow) preceded a colored square. In all experiments, participants discriminated the color of this square by responding with the left or the right hand. Although the temporal reference of the priming adverb was task irrelevant in Experiment 1, visually presented primes facilitated responses to the square in correspondence with the direction of the mental time-line. This priming effect was absent in Experiments 2, 3, and 5, in which the primes were presented auditorily and the temporal reference of the words could be ignored. The effect, however, emerged when attention was oriented to the temporal content of the auditory prime words in Experiment 4. The results suggest that task demands differentially modulate the activation of the mental time-line within the visual and auditory modality and support a flexible association between conceptual codes.     

Coping among children and adolescents with chronic illness

The present study was aimed to investigate age and gender effects on coping with everyday stressors among children and adolescents with chronic illness and healthy controls. Patients (8–13 years of age) with asthma (n=47), atopic dermatitis (n=52), and cancer (n=57) were compared to healthy controls (n=158) matched by age, gender, and grade. Self-report data on coping with academic and interpersonal stressors were collected. The primary results indicated that coping with everyday stressors was improved in children and adolescents with chronic illness compared to healthy controls. Thus, patients reported less passive avoidance on cross-situational coping and tended to show more situation-specific coping with social and school-related stressors than healthy controls. Additionally, among the clinical groups, patients with atopic dermatitis and cancer scored higher on positive self-instructions than patients with asthma. Conclusively, the results suggest that coping with a chronic illness may lead to more effective coping with everyday stressors. Implications for evaluating coping styles in patients with chronic illness are discussed.     

On the relationship between mobbing factors,and job content,social work environment,and health outcomes

Abstract

This article analyses the relationship between mobbing, job characteristics, social environment variables, and psychological ill-health. The Leymann Inventory of Psychological Terrorization (LIFT) was factor analysed and led to seven factors in two samples of mobbing victims (N = 50 and N = 99): Mobbing by organizational measures, social isolation, attacking the victim's private life, attacking the victim's attitudes, physical violence, verbal aggression, and rumours. Mobbing was correlated with bad job content, a bad social environment, and psychological ill-health. The findings suggest that the more social support supervisors gave, the less the victims reported being shouted at, being constantly criticized, and receiving verbal threats. In contrast, the more social support the victims received from their colleagues the less they reported being socially isolated or being ridiculed with regard to their private life. Moreover, having private life attacked showed the strongest correlation with psychological ill-health. The data suggest that organizational factors are potential causes of mobbing at work.     

The impact of accountability on teachers’ assessments of student performance: a social cognitive analysis

Research on teachers’ judgments of student performance has demonstrated that educational assessments may be biased or may more correctly take the achievements of students into account depending on teachers’ motivations while making the judgment. Building on research on social judgment formation the present investigation examined whether the accountability of teachers has an influence on judgment formation. We predicted that unaccountable teachers would activate social categories and use them for the assessment, whereas accountable teachers’ attention would be directed to individual attributes of students. Using secondary school teachers as participants, three studies investigating teachers’ assessments, inferences and memory for students’ attributes supported these hypotheses. Thus, accountability appears to be a moderator of social information processing and judgment formation in the domain of educational assessments.     

What clocks tell us about the neural correlates of spatial imagery

We review a series of experimental studies aimed at answering some critical questions about the neural basis of spatial imagery. Our group used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to explore the neural correlates of an online behaviourally controlled spatial imagery task without need for visual presentation—the mental clock task. Subjects are asked to imagine pairs of times that are presented acoustically and to judge at which of the two times the clock hands form the greater angle. The cortical activation elicited by this task was contrasted with that obtained during other visual, perceptual, verbal, and spatial imagery tasks in several block design studies. Moreover, our group performed an event‐related fMRI study on the clock task to investigate the representation of component cognitive processes in spatial imagery. The bulk of our findings demonstrates that cortical areas in the posterior parietal cortex (PPC), along the intraparietal sulcus, are robustly involved in spatial mental imagery and in other tasks requiring spatial transformations. PPC is bilaterally involved in different kinds of spatial judgement. Yet the degree to which right and left PPC are activated in different tasks is a function of task requirements. From event‐related fMRI data we obtained evidence that left and right PPC are activated asynchronously during the clock task and this could reflect their different functional role in subserving cognitive components of visuospatial imagery.