动机的概率意义——概率归并定理与Monty Hall问题的非贝叶斯解

本文探讨Monty Hall问题认知困惑的形成因素。通过对该问题数学结构的分析,导出一个与该问题的解密切相关的定理——概率归并定理;并依据该定理给出了Monty Hall问题的一种更直观的数学解。     

THOG问题促进效应研究

通过选取经典的THOG问题作为实验材料,探讨了大学生解决具体以及抽象选言推理问题的认知机制,结果发现:(1)具体内容的选言推理问题对抽象内容的选言推理问题有明显的促进效应,表现为先解决逃犯问题后解决THOG问题组的正确率显著高于先解决THOG问题后解决逃犯问题组;(2)提供笼统的解题策略对大学生解决THOG问题几乎没有促进作用。     

假言推理中的概率效应

近来Oaksford等人的研究表明,概率信息对假言推理的认知过程有着显著的影响,在一定程度上可以用它来解释和预测个体在推理中的行为反应。该文针对这种新的观点,就假言推理中所涉及的前后件概率信息、条件概率信息、连接概率信息、因果概率信息以及额外前提条件等对假言推理的影响分别做了简要的阐述,并介绍了一些相关的实验研究,最后作了总结和展望。     

从"扁鹊自责"谈我国糖尿病防治现状及对策

全球糖尿病发病率日益增多.我国糖尿病诊断率及治疗达标率低,并发症发生率高、进展快,治疗现状令人担忧.减轻体重干预糖耐量受损,是决定疾病转归的关键环节、生活方式及药物干预均可降低糖尿病发生率.只有重视普及糖尿病相关知识,提高专业队伍素质,针对高危人群重点筛查及干预,早期发现糖尿病及综合治疗,才有可能减少糖尿病发病率及致残、致死率.     

无神论在当代文化语境下的话语权问题——2008年学术年会发言摘要

2008年12月6日至7日．中国无神论学会在北京举行了2008年学术年会．主题是“无神论在当代文化语境下的话语权”。参加会议的来自中国社科院、中国科学院、中国科协、中央党校、中央社会主义学院、中央民族大学、中国地质大学、北京师范大学、上海师范大学等30多个全国科研院所和部分省市高校的学者．共计50多人。     

捍卫科学与世俗主义的新举动

总部建在美国布法罗市阿姆赫斯特的国际探索中心,有其鲜明的宗旨——积极捍卫和推动理性、科学,以及在人们企及的所有领域中自由的探索。     

Satisficing when buying information

In two studies expected value, expected utility, and satisficing approaches to one's decision to buy information were compared. The task for the first study was to judge the maximum worth of information by bidding to reduce an ambiguous prospect to a risky one when given an option between a risky prospect and an ambiguous one. A within-subjects design was used in which, for the risky prospect, the probability of gain and expected value were varied. The results were inconsistent with both expected value and expected utility models, but were consistent with a satisficing strategy. The second study was similar to the first but with context changes in the stimuli and a slightly different decision task. The results showed that the effects are robust across task and context. The main behavioral effect is that people appear more willing to buy information that may decrease an expected loss than information that may increase an expected gain. A decision justification principle is consistent with that effect.     

Exploring a Source of Uneven Score Equity across the Test Score Range

Score equity assessment (SEA) refers to an examination of population invariance of equating across two or more subpopulations of test examinees. Previous SEA studies have shown that score equity may be present for examinees scoring at particular test score ranges but absent for examinees scoring at other score ranges. No studies to date have performed research for the purpose of understanding why score equity can be inconsistent across the score range of some tests. The purpose of this study is to explore a source of uneven subpopulation score equity across the score range of a test. It is hypothesized that the difficulty of anchor items displaying differential item functioning (DIF) is directly related to the score location at which issues of score inequity are observed. The simulation study supports the hypothesis that the difficulty of DIF items has a systematic impact on the uneven nature of conditional score equity.     

齐《易》学刍议

在经学发展过程中,齐经学的地位至关重要,这主要表现为齐人对儒经的传授、齐经学成为汉代经学的主流等方面。而齐《易》学是齐经学的重要组成部分,本文将在齐《易》学的渊源、齐《易》学的传承以及齐《易》学的主要特点与影响等方面试作探讨。