Rumor and Prediction: Making Sense (but Losing Dollars) in the Stock Market

It is proposed that by making sense of unpredictable price movements, rumors spawn anti-regressive predictions and adversely affect trading decisions despite investor denigration of rumors. Two experimental stock market simulations investigated these ideas. Subjects were presented with news (Study 1) and published and unpublished rumors (Study 2) while participating in a computerized investment game. As compared with controls, all manipulations caused departures from a profitable buy-low-sell-high (tracking) trading strategy despite strong differences in rated credibility between types of information source. Subjects claimed that rumor sources were non-credible and that they were not influenced by rumors in trading decisions; nevertheless they traded on rumors as though they were news. Results integrate rumor theory with the psychology of prediction, extend the corpus of rumor literature to behavior, and highlight the sense-making function of rumor in situations filled with uncertainty.     

Eric J. Sharpe (1933–2000)

This paper gives a general account of the developments in the Baha'i Faith over the last three decades. The period began with the Baha'i Faith as a little-known religion with a hereditary leadership of predominantly Iranian membership but with some spread to the West. At the present time the religion has been transformed into a much better-known religion led by an elected council. It has increased some 20-fold in numbers and is now world-wide in membership. The major structural changes involved as the previous hereditary leadership at the international level was converted into the leadership of an elected council are analysed. The growth and development of the religion over this period are described and some statistical information is given. The central concerns of the religion during this time are described in terms of a number of motifs: polar, legalism, millenarianism, social reformism, universalism, liberalism, and martyrdom and sacrifice. An attempt is made to analyse some of the present problems facing the Baha'i community, both in terms of the persecutions that it suffers as well as the problems presented by its successful expansion, and to describe the ways in which it copes with these.     

The role of idiosyncratic attribute evaluation in mass customization

The growing use of mass customization necessitates an understanding of consumers' evaluations of mass customization platforms. We hypothesize that consumers' objective and subjective knowledge of the customized product moderate the influence of idiosyncratically evaluated (i.e., personalizable) attributes on satisfaction with a customization platform. Consistent with our theoretical framework, results from three experiments show that offering greater variety in idiosyncratically evaluated attribute options increases consumers' satisfaction to a greater extent for: (1) novices than experts (2) consumers with more subjective knowledge, and (3) miscalibrated consumers whose subjective knowledge does not match their objective knowledge, than calibrated consumers whose subjective and objective knowledge match.     

Rumors Denials as Persuasive Messages: Effects of Personal Relevance,Source, and Message Characteristics1

Denial is a commonly used strategy to rebut a false rumor. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the effectiveness of denials in combating rumors. Treating denials as persuasive messages, we conducted 3 laboratory‐based simulation studies testing the overall effectiveness of denials in reducing belief and anxiety associated with an e‐mail virus rumor. Under the framework of the elaboration likelihood model, we also tested the effects of denial message quality and source credibility, and the moderating effects of personal relevance. Overall, the results provided some support for the effectiveness of denials with strong arguments and an anxiety‐alleviating tone in reducing rumor‐related belief and anxiety. The effects of denial wording and source credibility were visible for participants who perceived high personal relevance of the topic. Limitations of the current research and future research directions are discussed.     

Evaluating and Improving Probability Assessment in an Ambiguous,Sequential Environment

The current study explores the validity of verbal probability assessments in a sequential and highly ambiguous task, that is, one in which it is virtually impossible to know or learn about the true probabilities of possible outcomes. Participants observed the pre-defined motion of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), such that the participant’s success depended on the UAV reaching a target sector without being spotted by an opponent UAV. At several points in each trajectory, participants’ task was to evaluate the likelihood of reaching the target successfully. The study utilized a 2?×?2 independent-groups factorial design to examine the effect of probability incentivization (Brier vs none), in which participants receive payment based on the nearness of their predictions to actual outcomes, and informational reviews (present vs absent), in which participants engage in detailed discussion with the experimenter, regarding their assessments in seven previous trials before continuing, on probability assessment. A statistically significant main effect of Brier scoring was found, such that Brier based incentivization improved assessment accuracy. The effect of informational review and the interaction effect were not significant. All groups performed significantly better than random and uninformed performance. Outcomes from this study improve our understanding of the validity of online judgments made by operators of unmanned vehicles in strategic settings. It is concluded that non-expert probability assessments carry important information value even in ambiguous settings and even without incentives, and importantly, are further amenable to incentives and training.     

Association of maternal interaction with emotional regulation in 4- and 9-month infants during the Still Face Paradigm

This study used the Still Face Paradigm to investigate the relationship of maternal interaction on infants' emotion regulation responses. Seventy infant-mother dyads were seen at 4 months and 25 of these same dyads were re-evaluated at 9 months. Maternal interactions were coded for attention seeking and contingent responding. Emotional regulation was described by infant stress reaction and overall positive affect. Results indicated that at both 4 and 9 months mothers who used more contingent responding interactions had infants who showed more positive affect. In contrast, mothers who used more attention seeking play had infants who showed less positive affect after the Still Face Paradigm. Patterns of stress reaction were reversed, as mothers who used more attention seeking play had infants with less negative affect. Implications for intervention and emotional regulation patterns over time are discussed.     

Starting on haemodialysis: A qualitative study to explore the experience and needs of incident patients

Dialysis can be very stressful with the initial months onto treatment being highly critical in terms of both adaptation and mortality. This qualitative study aimed to explore the lived experiences of incident haemodialysis patients in Singapore. Topics related to the end-stage renal disease diagnosis and haemodialysis treatment were raised with 13 incident haemodialysis patients in the form of semi-structured interviews, and interpretative phenomenological analysis was undertaken as the framework for data analysis. Emotional distress, treatment-related concerns and social support emerged as main issues following a critical review of themes. Our study revealed that incident haemodialysis patients have emotional and informational needs, highlighting the importance of intervention programmes in particular to this patient group to promote better psychosocial adjustment to the disease and its treatment.     

When employees behave badly: the roles of contract importance and workplace familism in predicting negative reactions to psychological contract breach

In this paper, we examine the influence of contract importance, feelings of violation, and workplace familism on the relationship between psychological contract breach and organizational deviance. Results from a study of 168 supervisor–employee dyads in a pharmaceutical organization suggest that (a) feelings of violation mediated the relationship between perceived breach and supervisor‐rated organizational deviance; (b) relational and transactional contract importance influenced the relationship between breach and feelings of violation such that the relationship was stronger under conditions of high relational and transactional importance; and (c) high levels of workplace familism mitigated the effects of feelings of violation on supervisor‐rated organizational deviance.