Identifying Hypothesis Confirmation Behaviors in a Simulated Murder Investigation: Implications for Practice

Investigators have been shown to be prone to accessing information that confirms their preferred hypothesis. This tendency has been termed hypothesis confirmation. Hypothesis confirmation behaviour was explored in two studies using a computer administered simulation of a murder investigation. In Study 1, hypothesis confirmation behaviour did not differentiate successful and unsuccessful participants. However, unsuccessful participants stored more confirmatory information than non‐confirmatory information. Successful participants did not show this pattern. In Study 2, unsuccessful participants tended to settle early on a suspect and then acquired information that supported their decision. Successful participants tended to consider a number of suspects for longer and accessed a greater diversity of information. Taken together, these findings are highly suggestive of the role of information acquisition as an important component of hypothesis confirmatory behaviour, which is associated with unsuccessful information processing in the context of a simulated murder investigation. Implications for practice are presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Body size over-estimation in women with anorexia nervosa is not qualitatively different from female controls

Over-estimation of body size is a cardinal feature of anorexia nervosa (AN), usually revealed by comparing individuals who have AN with non-AN individuals, the inference being that over-estimation is pathological. We show that the same result can be reproduced by sampling selectively from a single distribution of performance in body size judgement by comparing low BMI individuals with normal BMI individuals. Over-estimation of body size in AN is not necessarily pathological and can be predicted by normal psychophysical biases in magnitude estimation. We confirm this prediction in a dataset from a morphing study in which 30 women with AN and 137 control women altered a photograph of themselves to estimate their actual body size. We further investigated the relative contributions of sensory and attitudinal factors to body-size overestimation in a sample of 166 women. Our results suggest that both factors play a role, but their relative importance is task dependent.     

The Other Side of Method Bias: The Perils of Distinct Source Research Designs

Common source bias has been the focus of much attention. To minimize the problem, researchers have sometimes been advised to take measurements of predictors from one observer and measurements of outcomes from another observer or to use separate occasions of measurement. We propose that these efforts to eliminate biases due to common source variance create serious problems. To demonstrate the problems of using what we term the “distinct sources” measurement design, we provide an integrative review of the literature regarding both contamination and deficiency of measures. Building on this theme, the article uses simulated data to demonstrate how using data from distinct observers or occasions of measurement can distort estimates of predictor importance at least as much as common source variance. Alternative multisource designs are advocated and examined for tractability by simulating various numbers of observations and sources in the research design.     

Social desirability, approval and public good contribution

Behaviour in public good experiments is usually attributed partly to rational self-interest and partly to social norms and preferences. This paper examines if sensitivity to social desirability affects public good contribution and in what way. A pre-experimental measure of social desirability (SDS17) was used to match partners in a two-person public good game. Half the participants received experimenter approval based upon their investment. Contrary to predictions, the highest public good investment was by low social desirability participants in the approval condition. Social desirability was not positively related to pro-social behaviour. We consider its relation to experimental and social conformity.     

Symbol-string sensitivity and children's reading

In this study of primary school children, a novel 'symbol-string' task is used to assess sensitivity to the position of briefly presented non-alphabetic but letter-like symbols. The results demonstrate that sensitivity in the symbol-string task explains a unique proportion of the variability in children's contextual reading accuracy. Moreover, developmental dyslexic readers show reduced sensitivity in this task, compared to chronological age controls. The results suggest that limitations set by visuo-spatial processes and/or attentional iconic memory resources may constrain children's reading accuracy.     

Procrastination's Impact in the Workplace and the Workplace's Impact on Procrastination

Procrastination is a self‐regulatory failure, whose costs are debated. Here, we establish its impact in the workplace. Using an Internet sample, we assessed 22,053 individuals in terms of their sex, employment status, employment duration, income, occupational attainment and level of procrastination. High levels of procrastination is associated with lower salaries, shorter durations of employment, and a greater likelihood of being unemployed or under employed rather than working full‐time. Also, procrastination partially mediates sex's relationship with these work variables. Women tend to procrastinate less than men, evidently giving women an employment advantage. If women procrastinated the same as men, there should be 1.5 million fewer women in full‐time employment in the US. alone. Determining the causes of procrastination in the workplace, we also examined it at an occupational level. The results strongly support the gravitational hypothesis: jobs that require higher levels of motivational skills are less likely to retain procrastinators. However, there was some support that jobs can foster procrastination. Procrastinators tend to have jobs that are lower in intrinsically rewarding qualities.     

The neural basis of the right visual field advantage in reading: an MEG analysis using virtual electrodes

Right-handed participants respond more quickly and more accurately to written words presented in the right visual field (RVF) than in the left visual field (LVF). Previous attempts to identify the neural basis of the RVF advantage have had limited success. Experiment 1 was a behavioral study of lateralized word naming which established that the words later used in Experiment 2 showed a reliable RVF advantage which persisted over multiple repetitions. In Experiment 2, the same words were interleaved with scrambled words and presented in the LVF and RVF to right-handed participants seated in an MEG scanner. Participants read the real words silently and responded "pattern" covertly to the scrambled words. A beamformer analysis created statistical maps of changes in oscillatory power within the brain. Those whole-brain maps revealed activation of the reading network by both LVF and RVF words. Virtual electrode analyses used the same beamforming method to reconstruct the responses to real and scrambled words in three regions of interest in both hemispheres. The middle occipital gyri showed faster and stronger responses to contralateral than to ipsilateral stimuli, with evidence of asymmetric channeling of information into the left hemisphere. The left mid fusiform gyrus at the site of the 'visual word form area' responded more strongly to RVF than to LVF words. Activity in speech-motor cortex was lateralized to the left hemisphere, and stronger to RVF than LVF words, which is interpreted as representing the proximal cause of the RVF advantage for naming written words.     

The Rorschach Suicide Constellation: assessing various degrees of lethality

In this article we examine the relation between the Rorschach Comprehensive System's Suicide Constellation (S-CON; Exner, 1993; Exner & Wiley, 1977) and lethality of suicide attempts during the course of patients' hospitalization at the Austen Riggs Center (Stockbridge, MA). Patient records were rated as nonsuicidal (n = 37), parasuicidal (n = 37), or near-lethal (n = 30) based on the presence and lethality of self-destructive acts. Diagnostic efficiency statistics utilizing a cutoff score of 7 or more positive indicators successfully predicted which patients would engage in near-lethal suicidal activity relative to parasuicidal patients (overall correct classification rate [OCC] = .79), nonsuicidal inpatients (OCC = .79), and college students (OCC = .89). Although these predictions were influenced by relatively high base rates in the hospital population (14.5%), base rate estimates were calculated for other hypothetical populations revealing different prediction estimates that should be considered when judging the relative efficacy of the S-CON. Logistic regression analysis revealed that an S-CON score of 7 or more was the sole predictor of near-lethal suicide attempts among 9 psychiatric and demographic variables.     

An empirical study of seriously disturbed suicidal patients

Aspects of unconscious processes in a group of seriously disturbed psychiatric patients are examined in an effort to predict near-lethal suicide attempts and explore psychoanalytic formulations of suicide. The Rorschach Inkblot Test, the most widely used projective measure in suicide research (Bongar 1991), was chosen for its potential to shed light on specific unconscious processes. Psychic states commonly associated with suicide were measured by psychoanalytic Rorschach analog scales and then subjected to a progression of statistical analyses in order to predict future occurrence and lethality of suicide attempts. On the basis of a priori hypotheses, the authors developed a suicide index comprising four psychoanalytic Rorschach signs that predicted, with considerable accuracy, which patients would later make near-lethal suicide attempts. The best predictors were unconscious processes indicative of penetrating affective overstimulation, disturbance in the capacity to maintain adequate ego boundaries, and depressive affective states characterized by a morbid preoccupation with death and inner decay. These findings provide empirical support for several well-known formulations of the unconscious motivations for suicide.     

Symbol-string sensitivity and adult performance in lexical decision

In this study of adult readers, we used a symbol-string task to assess participants' sensitivity to the position of briefly presented, non-alphabetic but letter-like symbols. We found that sensitivity in this task explained a significant proportion of sample variance in visual lexical decision. Based on a number of controls, we show that this relationship cannot be explained by other factors including: chronological age, intelligence, speed of processing and/or concentration, short term memory consolidation, or fixation stability. This approach represents a new way to elucidate how, and to what extent, individual variation in pre-orthographic visual and cognitive processes impinge on reading skills, and the results suggest that limitations set by visuo-spatial processes constrain visual word recognition.