Mental models and probabilistic thinking

This paper outlines the theory of reasoning based on mental models, and then shows how this theory might be extended to deal with probabilistic thinking. The same explanatory framework accommodates deduction and induction: there are both deductive and inductive inferences that yield probabilistic conclusions. The framework yields a theoretical conception of strength of inference, that is, a theory of what the strength of an inference is objectively: it equals the proportion of possible states of affairs consistent with the premises in which the conclusion is true, that is, the probability that the conclusion is true given that the premises are true. Since there are infinitely many possible states of affairs consistent with any set of premises, the paper then characterizes how individuals estimate the strength of an argument. They construct mental models, which each correspond to an infinite set of possibilities (or, in some cases, a finite set of infinite sets of possibilities). The construction of models is guided by knowledge and beliefs, including lay conceptions of such matters as the “law of large numbers”. The paper illustrates how this theory can account for phenomena of probabilistic reasoning.     

The pain behavior scale: Modification and validation for outpatient use

The present study investigated the validity of an inpatient pain behavior rating scale modified for outpatient use. A series of 43 consecutive outpatients referred for evaluation of chronic pain was examined using the Pain Behavior Scale (PBS) and other psychometric instruments. Analyses revealed significantly higher Pain Behavior Scale scores for low back and multiple pain-site groups. The results also indicated a high degree of internal consistency of the scale. A multiple regression analysis, predicting observed pain behavior from reported pain behavior, indicated that decreased activity accounted for 32% of the variance in the PBS score. A similar regression for pain experience found that the pain level and the sensory scale score on the McGill Pain Questionnaire accounted for 39% of the PBS variance. Psychological characteristics including disease conviction, self-control, depression, and anxiety explained 45% of the variability in the PBS score. Thus, the scale is related to pain intensity, interference with activities, and a variety of psychological characteristics. The scale provides a measure of observable pain behavior that is also relatively independent of these clinical data sources. The Pain Behavior Scale as modified for outpatient use provides a brief index of pain behavior with potential use in the comprehensive evaluation of the pain patient.     

Spontaneous startle activity in newborn infants

Spontaneous startles have been reported to occur most frequently in quiet sleep, less frequently in active sleep and drowse, and relatively nonexistent in the waking states. These findings may be a result of a focus on infants whose prenatal histories reflect a restricted range of the conditions to which normal newborns are exposed. The present study examined the spontaneous startle behavior of 30 newborn infants characterized by high numbers of obstetric complications and by indicators of prenatal malnutrition, but within the range of normal, healthy newborns. In this sample, startles were not limited to the sleep and drowse states. Because individual differences in a number of neonatal behaviors have been related to autonomic nervous system (ANS) functioning, the different pattern of spontaneous startles observed in this sample may be related to the functional integrity of this system.     

The contribution of sex distribution,job content,and occupational classification to job sextyping: Two studies

The distribution of males and females on a job, occupational classification, and job content as defined by the DOT analysis of job activity demands were examined as predictors of job sex stereotypes in two studies. Results indicate that the actual base rate of males and females in the job is the most important predictor of job sextypes, accounting for 48 and 70% of the adjusted variance in sextypes in the two studies. The results lend little support to the proposition that job content makes a significant contribution to the perception of job sextypes.     

The neurotic paradox and self-punitive behavior in humans

Human subjects learned a key-pressing response in order to avoid or escape shock. The reinforcement contingencies were then changed to punishment or to regular nonpunished extinction. The locus of shock onset and offset was systematically varied during the punishment phase. More subjects reported awarencess of the change in the nonpunished extinction group. By inference, the punished groups responded more, and thus the results appear analogous to animal studies on vicious circle, self-punitive responding. Discriminability of change from acquisition to extinction appeared to affect detection of the change.     

Effects of visual familiarity on “same” and “different” decision processes

An experiment was conducted in which subjects matched upper and lower case versions of well-known abbreviations, such as BBC and etc, and meaningless controls. “Same” RT showed a familiarity effect for upper case versions of abbreviations such as BBC and GPO, but not for the lower case versions bbc and gpo. The converse did not occur for abbreviations such as etc, which were thought to occur most frequently in lower case. The “different” RT was inhibited by familiarity, with pairs such as IBM GPO being classified less rapidly than their lower case versions or controls. These effects occurred for subjects instructed to report “No” for “same” displays and “Yes” for “different” displays as well as for subjects given a conventional decision-report assignment. Some implications of these results for an account of the manner in which familiarity affects graphemic comparison processes are considered.     

Comparative evaluation of the Job Club program with welfare recipients

About 1000 WIN welfare clients were selected in five cities: Harlem, New Brunswick, Milwaukee, Wichita, and Tacoma, and half were randomly assigned to the Job Club program. Of the continuing clients, 87% of the Job Club sample obtained jobs vs 59% of the Control sample at the 12-month follow-up and 80 vs 48% at 6 months. The Job Club was more effective in each of the five cities, for men and women, for high school graduates or dropouts, for blacks, whites, and Spanish, for handicapped or nonhandicapped, veterans or nonveterans, the young and the older, and for those required to participate as well as those who volunteered. The jobs obtained by the Job Club clients were comparable to the Control clients' jobs in terms of mean salary, full-time status, and type of job, and were more likely to be enduring, nonsubsidized, and obtained by the job-seeker's own efforts. Job Club members obtained employment in a median of six sessions (mean of 11); 90% obtained jobs within 23 sessions. Follow-up questionnaire data indicated comparable job retention in the two samples but slightly greater advancement and job satisfaction for the Job Club clients. The method appears to assure employment to virtually all participating welfare clients.     

Eysenck's theory of incubation: A critical analysis

Eysenck's theory of incubation is summarized. Arguments and evidence concerning its validity and potential value are presented.     

APPLICATION OF A SOCIAL SKILLS TRAINING PROGRAM IN THE MODIFICATION OF INTERPERSONAL DEFICITS AMONG RETARDED ADULTS: A CLINICAL REPLICATION

Six mentally retarded adults, equally divided into two treatment groups, were provided with individualized social skills training programs. Treatment, evaluated via a multiple-baseline design strategy, was sequentially and cumulatively applied across target behaviors over a four-week intervention period. Behavioral observation probes and social validation measures served as the primary dependent variables. Results indicated that (a) treatment was effective for virtually all behaviors across all subjects, (b) improvements occurred for both training and generalization scenes, and (c) behavioral performance was maintained one month following the termination of treatment.