Robust interactive decision-analysis (RID): Behavioral results and implications

We have proposed a novel interactive procedure for performing decision analysis, called Robust Interactive Decision Analysis (RID), which permits a decision maker (DM) to voluntarily and interactively express strong (viz, sure) binary preferences for actions, partial decision functions, and full decision functions, and only imprecise probability and utility function assessments. These serve as INPUTS TO operators to prune the state probability space and decision space until an optimal choice strategy is obtained. The viability of the RID approach depends on a DM's ability to provide such information consistently and meaningfully. On a limited scale we experimentally investigate the behavioral implications of the RID method in order to ascertain its potential operational feasibility and viability. More specifically, we examine whether a DM can (1) express strong preferences between pairs of vectors of unconditional and conditional payoffs or utilities consistently; (2) provide imprecise (ordinal and interval) state probabilities that are individually as well as mutually consistent with the state probabilities imputed from the expressed strong preferences. The results show that a DM can provide strong individually and mutually consistent preference and ordinal probability information. Moreover, most individuals also appear to be able to provide interval probabilities that are individually and mutually consistent with their strong preference inputs. However, the several violations observed, our small sample size, and the limited scope of our investigation suggest that further experimentation is needed to determine whether and/or how such inputs should be elicited. Overall, the results indicate that the RID method is behaviorally viable.     

Cognitive guidelines for simplifying medical information: Data framing and perception

In this paper, 1 describe psychological guidelines for simplifying medical information — methods to aid the perception and recognition of abnormalities in medical test reports. These techniques resemble natural human editing strategies outlined in prospect theory. The methods pre-edit data as humans do but to reduce human effort. I review empirical studies assessing these techniques and discuss needs for further research.     

Psychological conceptions of randomness

This article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non-random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious considerations.     

Reliability of job evaluation: Differences across sex-typed jobs

Recent work has questioned whether a single job evaluation instrument can reliably measure jobs from different job families. To test this, a generalizability study was done to determine the reliability of three job evaluation instruments: one for male-dominated jobs, MIMA-Shop, one for female-dominated jobs, MIMA-office and one which evaluated both types, FES. Initial results indicated that the latter instrument suffered no loss in reliability, and that all three instruments were equally highly reliable. A second analysis evaluated the reliability of the FES for male-dominated jobs separately from the reliability of the FES for female-dominated jobs. These results indicated no significant difference in reliability for male-dominated jobs and for female-dominated jobs. Implications of these findings were discussed.A previous version of this paper was presented at the 95th Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association at New York City, August 1987.     

Using the microcomputer as a visual aid in the statistics classroom

A microcomputer running a spreadsheet program makes an excellent visual aid for demonstrating statistical concepts and procedures. Some advantages of this setup over traditional visual aids are described. Several statistical demonstrations that I have found to work well are presented.     

Covert visual orienting: Hemifield-activation can be mimicked by zoom lens and midlocation placement strategies

How is attention distributed over visual space when an observer expects a target to occur at one of several possible locations? Two experiments sought to understand the source of the conflict between studies leading to the notions of hemifield activation (Hughes and Zimba 1985) and attentional gradients (Downing and Pinker 1985; Shulman et al. 1985, 1986). Subjects were cued to attend one of the 4 corners of an imaginary square centered at fixation, allowing comparison of uncued locations in the cued and uncued hemifields. In one experiment marking of the 4 locations was varied to determine if providing a ‘target’ for attention is necessary to obtain within-hemifield gradients. RT was faster at the cued location than at the three uncued locations which had equivalent latencies, a pattern that was unaffected by marking of the potential target locations. This result, which is consistent with the notion of a gradient around the attended location is a strong disconfirmation of the hemifield activation hypothesis. The second experiment demonstrated that an unusual procedure for presenting the probe stimuli in Hughes and Zimba (1985) is at least partially responsible for their evidence for uniform hemifield activation. It is proposed that visual attention is directed to visuo-spatial channels with fixed structural properties, and that when attention to two locations is desired, the subject may attend a spatial channel located between them.     

An exploratory study of planning, attention, simultaneous, and successive cognitive processes

Although there has been a considerable amount of research on simultaneous and successive processing (Luria's second functional unit) by Das and others, there have been relatively few investigations into the measurement of attention and planning (the first and third functional units, respectively). The purpose of this investigation was to examine the factorial validity of tasks designed to measure cognitive processing in each of Luria's three functional units. A sample of 112 normal fourth- and fifth-grade students were administered nine experimental tasks chosen or developed according to the theoretical components of planning, attention, simultaneous, and successive processes. Principal factor analyses (orthogonal and oblique) with rotation of four factors resulted in solutions that closely matched the anticipated groupings based on a structural analysis of the tasks. General support for the feasibility of measurement of Luria's cognitive processing model, and the need to further develop and refine these and other experimental tasks, was obtained.     

The Role of Sympathy and Altruistic Personality Traits in Helping: A Reexamination

The purposes of this study were (a) to examine the role of social evaluative concerns in the self-report of sympathy and in the relation of sympathy to helping; and (b) to determine the role of "altruistic personality" traits and situationally induced vicarious emotional responses in the intention to help. Dispositional and situational self-reports of sympathy and other vicarious emotional reactions were obtained for persons who also were given the opportunity to assist a needy other. Moreover, dispositional measures of concern with social evaluation and an altruistic orientation were obtained, and a bogus pipeline manipulation was instituted for half the study participants. Both dispositional and situational self-reported sympathy were positively related to helping, as were other personality indices viewed as reflecting altruistic characteristics. The relations for the dispositional indices of sympathy were not due solely to social evaluative concerns or to other egoistic concerns. The effects on intended helping of dispositional sympathy, perspective taking, and the tendency to ascribe responsibility for others to the self appeared to be both direct and mediated by situational sympathetic responding. Finally, situational sadness did not mediate the effects of sympathetic responsiveness.     

STRATÉGIES COGNITIVES ET PROCESSUS D'AUTORÉGULATION CHEZ DES FAMILLES EN SITUATION DE RÉSOLUTION DE PROBLÈMES LOGIQUES*

The family is a fundamental learning environment for many basic skills such as the ability to solve everyday domestic problems. A lack of competence in this type of problem solving would expose the individual to more frustration and possibly create the conditions for greater aggression. Forty-two low SES families, each including an aggressive boy, were invited to the laboratory for a problem-solving session on two occasions, at an interval of two years. Subjects were asked to find four preset combinations of colours by systematic permutations of four colours using a computer. Three types of cognitive performance were examined: resolution strategies, autoregulation strategies and the success rate in finding the solution. Results showed that most of the families were consistent in their use of a non-systematic strategy. Although some improvement in planning is observed during the second testing, no other improvement in autoregulation strategies was observed. In general, families had a better rate of success in finding the solution in the second session. The low cognitive level of these families and its stability are discussed. Étant donné que la famille constitue un terrain privilégié d'apprentissage, l'aggressivité comportementale de certains enfants pourrait résider dans le peu d'opportunités offertes par leur famille d'apprendre à affronter les problèmes de la vie quotidienne d'une manière réfléchie. Quarante-deux familles de milieu socio-économique faible, dont un des enfants est à risque d'inadaptation sociale et dont les parents sont peu scolarisés, ont à résoudre un problème nécessitant l'intelligence logique et ce, à deux ans d'intervalle (T-1 et T-2). La tâche consite à résoudre un problème de permutations à quatre éléments et se présente sous la forme d'un jeu d'ordinateur. Le fonctionnement cognitif est examiné selon trois dimensions: les stratégies cognitivcs de résolution, les stratégies d'autorégulation exercées, sur la démarche cognitive et l'issue de la démarche cognitive. L'examen des stratégies cognitives révèle que la majorité des familles utilisent une approche non stratégique et que cette approche est maintenue aussi bien à l'intérieur d'une séance donnée que d'une séance à l'autre. Exception faite de l'amélioration relevée à la séance 2 quant au contrôle exercé par les familles sur le déroulement de leur démarche cognitive, aucun changement n'émerge sur les autres critères de l'autorégulation. Finalement, les familles obtiennent une meilleure performance à la deuxième séance. La discussion porte sur la relative stabilité du niveau de fonctionnement cognitif des familles ainsi que sur la pauvreté apparente de leur répertoire de schèmes.