BasicBayes: A tutor system for simple Bayesian inference

To date, attempts to teach Bayesian inference to nonexperts have not met with much success. BasicBayes, the computerized tutor presented here, is an attempt to change this state of affairs. BasicBayes is based on a novel theoretical framework about Bayesian reasoning recently introduced by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995). This framework focuses on the connection between “cognitive algorithms” and “information formats.” BasicBayes teaches people how to translate Bayesian text problems into frequency formats, which have been shown to entail computationally simpler cognitive algorithms than those entailed by probability formats. The components and mode of functioning of BasicBayes are described in detail. Empirical evidence demonstrates the effectiveness of BasicBayes in teaching people simple Bayesian inference. Because of its flexible system architecture, BasicBayes can also be used as a research tool.     

小学儿童合取概念的形成及其与元认知的关系

采用个别访谈与问卷相结合的方法．研究了小学四、五、六年级共48名儿童合取概念的形成及其元认知的发展。结果表明．小学儿童形成合取概念的能力发展既具有渐进性,又有不均衡性;其元认知知识水平和元认知监控能力的发展均呈现出稳中有变的趋势;各年级的元认知能力与形成合取概念的步数之间均存在非常显著的相关。     

中国和澳大利亚父母报告的儿童社会性发展

采用作者编制的《３－９岁儿童社会性发展量表》的英译本,在２８４名澳大利亚儿童中进行测试。结果表明,对于社会文化背景差异巨大的中国和澳大利亚,本量表具有较好的稳定性和跨文化适用性。儿童社会性发展的各个方面,在中澳父母心目中占有不同地位：中国父母重视自我意识、社会技能、意志品质,而澳大利亚父母更重视社会技能和社会情绪的发展。在中澳两个样本中,女孩的社会性发展量表得分均高于男孩。     

Heading and path information from retinal flow in naturalistic environments

In four experiments, we explored the heading and path information available to observers as we simulated their locomotion through a cluttered environment while they fixated an object off to the side. Previously, we presented a theory about the information available and used in such situations. For such a theory to be valid, one must be sure of eye position, but we had been unable to monitor gaze systematically; in Experiment 1, we monitored eye position and found performance best when observers fixated the designated object at the center of the display. In Experiment 2, when we masked portions of the display, we found that performance generally matched the amount of display visible when scaled to retinal sensitivity. In Experiments 3 and 4, we then explored the metric of information about heading (nominal vs. absolute) available and found good nominal information but increasingly poor and biased absolute information as observers looked farther from the aimpoint. Part of the cause for this appears to be that some observers perceive that they have traversed a curved path even when taking a linear one. In all cases, we compared our results with those in the literature.     

Understanding the Determinants of Consumer Composting Behavior1

This study compared 3 models of waste management behavior: (a) a theory of reasoned action model, (b) an environmental belief-behavior model, and (c) an integrated waste management model which is based on the theory of planned behavior. The three models were compared using data from a sample of over 1,400 individual respondents who each completed a survey and a 2-week diary of their consumer composting activities. Overall, the results suggest that while the environmental beliefs-behavior model and the integrated waste management models both fit the data well, the integrated waste management model provided better predictive power and offers significant insight into the factors that influence composting behavior.     

Religious Coping and Heart Transplantation: From Threat to Health

Previous research has established the existence of homogeneous religious coping profiles in cardiac-transplantation candidates labeled as the deferring/collaborators, self-directors, and the eclectic religious copers. However, their prospective impact on outcome has not yet been established. This paper examines potential differences between pre-cardiac transplantation religious coping cluster groups on post-cardiac transplantation quality of life (physical functioning, mental health, and general health). Results indicated that the religious coping profiles of deferring/collaborators and self-directors had significantly better scores on mental health and general health than did the eclectics. Implications for religious-coping research and clinical practice are discussed.     

Intrinsic Properties Defined

Philosophical Studies -     

The Belief in Good Luck Scale

The construction and properties of the Belief in Good Luck (BIGL) Scale are described. Three studies provide evidence that reliable individual differences exist with respect to beliefs about luck. Some individuals maintain an irrational view of luck as a somewhat stable force that tends to influence events in their own favor, while others seem to hold the more rational belief that luck is random and unreliable. Further, these beliefs showed a considerable amount of stability over time. The BIGL was significantly related to locus of control (primarily to a chance subscale), but other evidence suggested these constructs were distinct. Belief in good luck was not related to general optimism, academic pessimism, self-esteem, desire for control, or achievement motivation. There was also evidence that belief in good luck was distinct from feeling fortunate or generally satisfied with one's life. Ethnic group differences were observed for the BIGL scale, showing that Asian-Americans were more likely to endorse superstitious beliefs about luck than non-Asians. Finally, the BIGL scale was shown to predict positive expectations for the outcome of everyday situations that are typically associated with luck. This is generally in agreement with previous findings suggesting that people who believe in personal good luck react to lucky events by becoming more positive about the likelihood of future success (Darke & Freedman, 1997). In general, it is suggested that irrational beliefs about luck can serve as a source of positive expectations for the outcome of future events.     

Cerebral Anesthetization for Localization of Speech: The Contribution of W. James Gardner

In 1949, the neurologist Juhn Wada reported the first use of a new procedure for determining the localization of speech and language in neurological patients: examination of the effects on speech and language after injecting a barbiturate, sodium amytal, into the internal carotid artery of each hemisphere in succession. By the 1960s, Wada'sIntracarotid Amobarbital Procedure,orIAP,had become the method of choice for identifying the speech-dominant side in one kind of neurological patient, persons with epilepsy who are candidates for surgical resection, and it remains so today. In 1941, however, an American neurosurgeon, W. James Gardner, reported his use of a different anesthetization procedure for speech localization in neurological patients. Instead of injecting sodium amytal through the blood supply, as in the IAP, Gardner injected procaine hydrochloride directly into cortical tissue. In this paper, we provide a brief biography of Gardner. We then discuss his method of cortical anesthetization, the theoretical and empirical background guiding his use of this method and his choice of patients, and, finally, the fate of Gardner's method within the scientific community.