Dealing with Multiple Solutions in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

Structural vector autoregressive models (VARs) hold great potential for psychological science, particularly for time series data analysis. They capture the magnitude, direction of influence, and temporal (lagged and contemporaneous) nature of relations among variables. Unified structural equation modeling (uSEM) is an optimal structural VAR instantiation, according to large-scale simulation studies, and it is implemented within an SEM framework. However, little is known about the uniqueness of uSEM results. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate whether multiple solutions result from uSEM analysis and, if so, to demonstrate ways to select an optimal solution. This was accomplished with two simulated data sets, an empirical data set concerning children's dyadic play, and modifications to the group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) program, which implements uSEMs with group- and individual-level relations in a data-driven manner. Results revealed multiple solutions when there were large contemporaneous relations among variables. Results also verified several ways to select the correct solution when the complete solution set was generated, such as the use of cross-validation, maximum standardized residuals, and information criteria. This work has immediate and direct implications for the analysis of time series data and for the inferences drawn from those data concerning human behavior.     

Business Ethics without Philosophers? Evidence for and Implications of the Shift From Applied Philosophers to Business Scholars on the Editorial Boards of Business Ethics Journals

This article considers the relationship between business ethics and philosophy, specifically in relation to the field and persons working in it. The starting point is a grammatical one: business ethics by the rules of grammar belongs to ethics. In terms of academic disciplines, it belongs to applied ethics, which belongs to ethics, which belongs to practical philosophy, which belongs to philosophy. However, in the field of business ethics today one will seldom meet colleagues from philosophy; instead, they will come from business, applying business studies perspectives, approaches, and increasingly quantitative methods. This article provides empirical evidence that today the three top journals with “business ethics” in their titles (and “awarded” a high impact factor) are mostly run (in terms of their editorial boards) by business scholars with PhDs in business. The article compares the three journals today with their inaugural issues and finds that at their inception all three were run by a majority of philosophers. The article discusses six possible explanations for this shift and provides suggestions for how to bring business ethics back to philosophers (and vice versa).     

Problems with Norms of Assertion

In this paper I draw attention to a number of problems that afflict norm accounts of assertion, i.e. accounts that explain what assertion is, and typically how speakers understand what assertion is, by appeal to a norm of assertion. I argue that the disagreements in the literature over norm selection undermines such an account of understanding. I also argue that the treatment of intuitions as evidence in the literature undermines much of the connection to empirical evidence. I further argue that appeals made to conversational patterns do not require the existence of any norms at all.     

Philosophy,Famine Relief,and the Skeptical Challenge From Disagreement

Disagreement has been grist to the mills of sceptics throughout the history of philosophy. Recently, though, some philosophers have argued that widespread philosophical disagreement supports a broad scepticism about philosophy itself. In this paper, I argue that the task for sceptics of philosophy is considerably more complex than commonly thought. The mere fact that philosophical methods fail to generate true majority views is not enough to support the sceptical challenge from disagreement. To avoid demanding something that human reasoning cannot supply, sceptics must show that philosophers have sufficient overlap to resolve their disagreements in particular concrete cases.     

Examining the role of positive and negative metacognitive beliefs in depression

Many psychological models have been developed to explain the development and maintenance of depression. The most widely evaluated model is the cognitive model of depression, and it is against this model that emerging models should be compared. Accordingly, this cross‐sectional study examined whether metacognitive beliefs, as specified in the metacognitive model of depression, would explain additional variance in depressive symptoms over dysfunctional attitudes; the core feature of the cognitive model. Moreover, mediational relationships between metacognitive beliefs, rumination, and depressive symptoms, predicted by the metacognitive model were also explored, whilst controlling for dysfunctional attitudes. A sample of 715 students completed self‐report questionnaires measuring depressive symptoms, rumination, dysfunctional attitudes, and metacognitive beliefs. Regression analyses showed that metacognitive beliefs made a significant statistical contribution to depressive symptoms, after controlling for age, gender, rumination and dysfunctional attitudes. Furthermore, as predicted by the metacognitive model, the relationship between positive metacognitive beliefs and depressive symptoms was fully mediated by rumination, whilst the relationship between negative metacognitive beliefs about uncontrollability and danger and depressive symptoms was partially mediated by rumination. The results provide further empirical support for the metacognitive model of depression and indicate that positive and negative metacognitive beliefs play an integral role in the maintenance of depressive symptoms.     

Adolescent Egocentrism and the Illusion of Transparency: Are Adolescents as Egocentric as we Might Think?

The illusion of transparency, or people’s tendency to believe their thoughts and feelings as more apparent to others than they actually are, was used to investigate adolescent egocentrism. Contrary to previous research demonstrating heightened adolescent egocentrism, adolescents exhibited similar levels of egocentrism to adults. In experiment 1, 13-14 year-olds and adult participants both truthfully described and lied about a series of pictures. Both adolescent and adult liars indicated that they were more confident that other participants would know when they were lying, than other participants actually indicated. In experiment 2, 13-14 year-olds, 15-16 year-olds and adult participants read to an audience. The illusion of transparency effect manifested itself differently according to gender: Female participants indicating that they looked more nervous than audiences thought, whilst male participants indicating that they were more entertaining than audiences thought. Results were interpreted using simulation theory, and suggested that adolescents might not be as egocentric as previously thought.     

Psychological Inflexibility and Child Anxiety

Psychological flexibility is the main outcome of acceptance commitment therapy. Insight into the usefulness of measuring psychological flexibility is an important step to enable studies on the effectiveness of acceptance commitment therapy in middle-aged children (8–10 years). For this purpose, we examined the factor structure, the construct validity and the reliability of the Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth. The Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth taps psychological inflexibility (the opposite of psychological flexibility) in children and adolescents. Although the questionnaire has been extensively validated in older children, this is not the case for middle-aged children. The Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth contains 17 items and is constituted of the subscales cognitive fusion, experiential avoidance and behavioral ineffectiveness. A shortened 8-item version also exists, the Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth-8, which does not distinguish between these subscales. We performed a confirmatory factor analysis. Additionally, we assessed the relationship between psychological flexibility and child anxiety. Children, aged 8–10 years, were recruited via regular primary schools. Of the 459 approached children, 267 (58?%) parents signed informed consents for their children (Age: M?=?9.18; SD?=?.79; Sex: n _boys?=?137, 51?%). Children completed the questionnaires during regular classes. In this sample, the 17-item version of the Avoidance and Fusion Questionnaire for Youth was less appropriate for measuring psychological inflexibility than the 8-item version. Furthermore, we found a significant positive relationship between psychological inflexibility and child anxiety. We argue that acceptance commitment therapy would be an interesting candidate for intervening early on in dysfunctional child anxiety, as acceptance commitment therapy’s cognitive elements require cognitive skills that children are likely to master early on.