Psychological conceptions of randomness

This article presents a critique of the concept of randomness as it occurs in the psychological literature. The first section of our article outlines the significance of a concept of randomness to the process of induction; we need to distinguish random and non-random events in order to perceive lawful regularities and formulate theories concerning events in the world. Next we evaluate the psychological research that has suggested that human concepts of randomness are not normative. We argue that, because the tasks set to experimental subjects are logically problematic, observed biases may be an artifact of the experimental situation and that even if such biases do generalise they may not have pejorative implications for induction in the real world. Thirdly we investigate the statistical methodology utilised in tests for randomness and find it riddled with paradox. In a fourth section we find various branches of scientific endeavour that are stymied by the problems posed by randomness. Finally we briefly mention the social significance of randomness and conclude by arguing that such a fundamental concept merits and requires more serious considerations.     

Covert visual orienting: Hemifield-activation can be mimicked by zoom lens and midlocation placement strategies

How is attention distributed over visual space when an observer expects a target to occur at one of several possible locations? Two experiments sought to understand the source of the conflict between studies leading to the notions of hemifield activation (Hughes and Zimba 1985) and attentional gradients (Downing and Pinker 1985; Shulman et al. 1985, 1986). Subjects were cued to attend one of the 4 corners of an imaginary square centered at fixation, allowing comparison of uncued locations in the cued and uncued hemifields. In one experiment marking of the 4 locations was varied to determine if providing a ‘target’ for attention is necessary to obtain within-hemifield gradients. RT was faster at the cued location than at the three uncued locations which had equivalent latencies, a pattern that was unaffected by marking of the potential target locations. This result, which is consistent with the notion of a gradient around the attended location is a strong disconfirmation of the hemifield activation hypothesis. The second experiment demonstrated that an unusual procedure for presenting the probe stimuli in Hughes and Zimba (1985) is at least partially responsible for their evidence for uniform hemifield activation. It is proposed that visual attention is directed to visuo-spatial channels with fixed structural properties, and that when attention to two locations is desired, the subject may attend a spatial channel located between them.     

Cognitive bias and irrational belief as predictors of avoidance

Cognitive bias, i.e. overestimates of subjective probability and cost of catastrophic events, and irrational belief were explored as predictors of avoidance. Three groups-anxiety disordered clients, a mixed group of clinic outpatients, and normals--were administered several self-report inventories. Multiple regression analyses were used to investigate a modified version of the Agoraphobic Cognitions Questionnaire, the Belief Scale, and the Body Sensations Questionnaire as predictors of avoidance, as measured by the Mobility Inventory. It was hypothesized that frequency x probability x cost of catastrophic cognitions (and the occurrence of the events they represent) would be a better predictor of avoidance than frequency alone. It was also hypothesized that irrational thinking would be a significant predictor of avoidance. The results generally supported the hypotheses, with subjective probability emerging as a particularly potent predictor of avoidance. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed.     

An exploratory study of planning, attention, simultaneous, and successive cognitive processes

Although there has been a considerable amount of research on simultaneous and successive processing (Luria's second functional unit) by Das and others, there have been relatively few investigations into the measurement of attention and planning (the first and third functional units, respectively). The purpose of this investigation was to examine the factorial validity of tasks designed to measure cognitive processing in each of Luria's three functional units. A sample of 112 normal fourth- and fifth-grade students were administered nine experimental tasks chosen or developed according to the theoretical components of planning, attention, simultaneous, and successive processes. Principal factor analyses (orthogonal and oblique) with rotation of four factors resulted in solutions that closely matched the anticipated groupings based on a structural analysis of the tasks. General support for the feasibility of measurement of Luria's cognitive processing model, and the need to further develop and refine these and other experimental tasks, was obtained.     

Determinants of Mediator Behavior: A Test of the Strategic Choice Model1

The present study simulated an organizational dispute to test 12 hypotheses about mediator behavior that were derived from the strategic choice model of mediation. This model is based on the assumption that mediators have four basic strategies to resolve disputes: (a) integrate, which involves a search for mutually acceptable outcomes; (b) press, which involves lowering one or both parties' aspirations; (c) compensate, which involves offering positive benefits in exchange for concessions; and (d) inaction, which involves letting the parties handle the dispute by themselves. The major proposition of the model is that two factors, the mediator's assessment of the likelihood of a mutually acceptable agreement and the mediator's concern for the parties' aspirations, interact to predict mediator behavior. Nine of the 12 hypotheses derived from the model were supported. Pressing by mediators occurred most when mediators had a low estimate of the likelihood of agreement in combination with a low concern for the parties' aspirations. Compensating occurred most when mediators had a low estimate of the likelihood of agreement in combination with a high concern for the parties' aspirations. Inaction occurred most when the mediators' estimate of the likelihood of agreement was high and their concern for the parties' aspirations was low. Integrating occurred most when the mediators had a high concern for the parties' aspirations.     

Orientations toward relationships: Choosing a situation in which to begin a relationship

An investigation was conducted to examine how individuals choose situations in which to initiate relationships. It was hypothesized that individuals' self-monitoring orientation and the characteristics of their relationship partners would interact to determine situation choices. Accordingly, low- and high-self-monitoring men were asked to rate their preferences for interacting in romantic and nonromantic situations with particular types of partners. The characteristics of the partners were varied along two dimensions: physical attractiveness and personality desirability. Results demonstrated that low-, relative to high-, self-monitoring individuals' preferences for interacting in romantic situations were more influenced by the personality characteristics of potential partners. In contrast, high-, relative to low-, self-monitoring individuals' preferences for interacting in romantic situations were more influenced by the physical attractiveness of potential partners. Neither of these effects occurred when preferences for nonromantic situations were assessed. Implications of these differences for the initiation, maintenance, and dissolution of relationships were discussed.     

Relationships and Emotional Experience in a Process of Gay Identity Development: A Case-Study Based on Personal Construct Theory

A case-study of gay identity development is presented based on Kelly's personal construct theory. The subject is a married man in his early thirties. Repertory grid technique is used to investigate the subject's construing of his relationships with gay men, and Kelly's account of emotion in terms of constructs of transition is used in analysing the emotional dimensions of the subject's experience. Three dimensions of interpersonal construing emerged from the grid analysis: emotional impact, negative affect and friendship. Five aspects of the subject's emotional experience are discussed: aggression, threat, anxiety, hostility and guilt. Some implications of the study for counselling are outlined, its limitations noted, and possible avenues for further research identified. It is argued that the study serves to illustrate the value of Kelly's perspective in understanding the interpersonal and emotional dimensions of gay identity development.     

Qualifications and Labour-Market Outcomes among 16-Year-Old School-Leavers

Young people's qualifications are strongly related to their occupational success. It is often assumed that this can be largely accounted for by employers' selection on the basis of attainment. A variety of attainment-related attitudes and behaviour among young people which may contribute to the relationship are examined. The findings suggest that qualifications subsume a variety of behavioural factors which have an important direct effect on young people's chances in the job market.