Prediction and prejudice

Evidence that supports a theory may be available to the scientist who constructs the theory and used as a guide to that construction, or it may only be discovered in the course of testing the theory. The central claim of this essay is that information about whether the evidence was accommodated or predicted affects the rational degree of confidence one ought to have in the theory. Only when the evidence is accommodated is there some reason to believe that the theoretical system was ‘fudged’ to fit the evidence in a way that weakens support. This weakening is an objective matter, but not one that can be conclusively determined by examining the contents of the theory and its logical relationship to the evidence. Consequently, there is less reason to believe a theory on the basis of that evidence when it is known that the evidence was accommodated than there would be if it was known instead that the same evidence had been predicted.     

Scotching the Dutch Book Argument

Consistent application of coherece arguments shows that fair betting quotients are subject to constraints that are too stringent to allow their identification with either degrees of belief or probabilities. The pivotal role of fair betting quotients in the Dutch Book Argument, which is said to demonstrate that a rational agent's degrees of belief are probabilities, is thus undermined from both sides.     

Inquiry into intentional systems I: Issues in ecological physics

Summary The role of intention in guiding the behavior of goal-directed systems is a problem that continues to challenge behavioral science. While it is generally agreed that intentional systems must be consistent with the laws of physics, there are many obvious differences between inanimate, physical systems and sentient, intentional systems. This suggests that there must be constraints over and above those of physics that govern goal-directed behavior. In this paper it is suggested that generic properties of self-organizing mechanisms may play a central role in the origin and evolution of intentional constraints. The properties of self-organizing systems are first introduced in the context of simple physical systems and then extended to a complex (biological) system. Whereas behavior of an inanimate physical system is lawfully determined by force fields, behavior of an animate biological system is lawfully specified by information fields. Biological systems are distinguished from simple physical systems in terms of their ubiquitous use of information fields as special (biological and psychological, social, etc.) boundary conditions on classical laws. Unlike classical constraints (boundary conditions), informational constraints can vary with time and state of the system. Because of the nonstationarity of the boundary conditions, the dynamic of the system can follow a complex trajectory that is organized by a set of spatially and temporally distributed equilibrium points or regions. It is suggested that this equilibrium set and the laws that govern its transformation define a minimal requirement for an intentional system. One of the benefits of such an approach is that it suggests a realist account for the origin of semantic predicates, thereby providing a basis for the development of a theory of symbolic dynamics. Therefore, the principles of self-organization provide a comprehensive basis for investigating intentional systems by suggesting how it is that intentions arise, and by providing a lawful basis for intentional behavior that reveals how organisms become and remain lawfully informed in the pursuit of their goals.     

Linear Analogue Self-Assessment and Procrustean Measurement: A Critical Review of Visual Analogue Scaling in Pain Assessment

Visual analogue scales (VASs) are one of the most widely used self-report measures of clinical pain. This article reviews the empirical literature on linear analogue self-assessment (LASA) and critically examines the features that appear to have made it such an attractive measurement option in pain assessment. It is concluded that analogue scaling does not withstand critical scrutiny as a primary measure of either pain intensity or pain affect and that, in most circumstances, the overall clinical utility of VASs is inferior to that of more structured pain indices.     

Beyond Stewardship? Dietrich Bonhoeffer on Nature

This article questions whether the model of stewardship is helpful in considering Christian responsibility towards non‐human nature and proposes a different way of treating the issue of care of the environment. In an extended engagement with the theology of Dietrich Bonhoeffer, the article argues that human relations to non‐human nature are best understood by seeing humanity as historical, political and natural. In theological formulation, humanity must be understood asimago dei, imago civitatis andimago mundi. Therefore the place of humanity cannot properly be understood without reference to both God and nature. Humanity, nature and God thereby constitute a ‘common realm’. A new test of Christian responsibility towards non‐human nature is introduced: of primary interest is how historical, political and natural humanity acts in ways which either reveal or obscure the ‘common realm of God, nature and humanity’. At this point, theological self‐understanding moves beyond the model of stewardship.     

BasicBayes: A tutor system for simple Bayesian inference

To date, attempts to teach Bayesian inference to nonexperts have not met with much success. BasicBayes, the computerized tutor presented here, is an attempt to change this state of affairs. BasicBayes is based on a novel theoretical framework about Bayesian reasoning recently introduced by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage (1995). This framework focuses on the connection between “cognitive algorithms” and “information formats.” BasicBayes teaches people how to translate Bayesian text problems into frequency formats, which have been shown to entail computationally simpler cognitive algorithms than those entailed by probability formats. The components and mode of functioning of BasicBayes are described in detail. Empirical evidence demonstrates the effectiveness of BasicBayes in teaching people simple Bayesian inference. Because of its flexible system architecture, BasicBayes can also be used as a research tool.     

Introduction and commentary to: M.I. Mityushov (1954) “Conditioned reflex secretion of insulin”

Recent research on the role of classical conditioning in homeostatic regulation (Dworkin, 1993; Siegel, Krank & Hinson, 1987) has underscored the potential importance of the work of earlier Eastern-European work on physiological conditioning. The present article is a translation and discussion of a paper on blood glucose conditioning, first published in 1954 by the Russian physiologist M.I. Mityushov. Dr. Mityushov was able to demonstrate conditioned hypoglycemia in humans and dogs after using an injection procedure as the CS and intravenous glucose as the UCS. The translation is preceded by a general introduction and followed by a reanalysis and discussion of Mityushov’s results.     

Internalizing and externalizing characteristics of sexually and/or physically abused children

This study evaluates the behavioral consequences of childhood abuse (sexual, physical, or both), with particular focus on prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Three abuse type groups and nonabused controls were contrasted on behavioral rating scales and on structured psychiatric interview data. The participants (109 abused children and 16 normal control children) were recruited from Arkansas Children’s Hospital and local agencies for abused children. As expected, proportionately more females than males were sexually abused. Overall, males were rated as more disturbed than females. Type of abuse did not consistently influence behavioral ratings. Externalizing scores were significantly higher than internalizing scores in all abused groups. PTSD was diagnosed in 50% of the abused children, with a higher rate for boys who had been sexually abused as opposed to physically abused only (58% versus 13%). The most frequent comorbid condition with PTSD was Separation Anxiety. Sexually abused boys were hospitalized for psychiatric treatment at a higher rate than were other abused children.