Forecasting outcomes of the World Cup 2006 in football: Performance and confidence of bettors and laypeople

ObjectivesMotivated by a paucity of research on sports forecasting, this paper examines how well individuals with varying degrees of relevant knowledge predict football (soccer) and how much confidence they have in their predictions.Design and procedureThree groups of participants (110 art students, 81 sports students, and 85 bettors) representing three levels of knowledge (poor, moderate, and expert) performed five forecasting tasks with relation to the outcome of the first round of the World Cup 2006. The tasks were assumed to reflect different degrees of complexity. About half of the participants obtained relevant information (world rankings). The participants stated their confidence in connection to conducting those tasks.ResultsWhereas the groups had roughly similar levels of performance in three tasks (i.e., predicting the teams qualifying for the second round as well as two types of match statistics), the knowledgeable and expert participants were better at predicting scores and percentage of ball possession in the matches than the naïve participants. Relatively few participants performed better than the simple rule that followed world rankings. Regardless of task complexity, the knowledgeable and expert participants were found to be significantly more confident about their forecasts than the naïve participants. Access to information had limited influence on forecasting performance and confidence.ConclusionThe present study shows that the forecasting performance of football experts and laypeople varies dependent on task. For easy tasks, they tend to predict equally well, partly because laypeople might use well-adapted heuristics. Once the prediction tasks become more difficult, the experts may take advantage of their domain-specific skills and produce forecasts that excel those of the laypeople.     

The challenge of measuring immigrant origin and immigration-related ethnicity in Europe

Different European nation-states use the most diverse statistical constructions of foreign origin or ethnic minority populations. Several countries traditionally even shun from producing such data. This makes international comparison a very difficult endeavour. Anyone wanting to perform comparative research on immigrants or (immigrant origin) ethnic minorities in Europe is unavoidably confronted with the most diverse types of national statistical data and has to opt for ad hoc solutions. Attempts at international comparison can thus be very tricky due to data characteristics. It is important that researchers are aware of these problems and do not simply accept data (especially in comparisons) at face value. In this article we embark on a comparative explorative study of the way in which immigrant background and immigration related ethnicity is taken stock of by national statistical institutes in a set of European nation-states.     

One algorithm to rule them all? An evaluation and discussion of ten eye movement event-detection algorithms

Almost all eye-movement researchers use algorithms to parse raw data and detect distinct types of eye movement events, such as fixations, saccades, and pursuit, and then base their results on these. Surprisingly, these algorithms are rarely evaluated. We evaluated the classifications of ten eye-movement event detection algorithms, on data from an SMI HiSpeed 1250 system, and compared them to manual ratings of two human experts. The evaluation focused on fixations, saccades, and post-saccadic oscillations. The evaluation used both event duration parameters, and sample-by-sample comparisons to rank the algorithms. The resulting event durations varied substantially as a function of what algorithm was used. This evaluation differed from previous evaluations by considering a relatively large set of algorithms, multiple events, and data from both static and dynamic stimuli. The main conclusion is that current detectors of only fixations and saccades work reasonably well for static stimuli, but barely better than chance for dynamic stimuli. Differing results across evaluation methods make it difficult to select one winner for fixation detection. For saccade detection, however, the algorithm by Larsson, Nyström and Stridh (IEEE Transaction on Biomedical Engineering, 60(9):2484–2493,2013) outperforms all algorithms in data from both static and dynamic stimuli. The data also show how improperly selected algorithms applied to dynamic data misestimate fixation and saccade properties.     

Do elderly couples have a better prospective memory than other elderly people when they collaborate?

A naturalistic study investigated how memory tasks affected group productivity for two individuals working in three kinds of group constellations: old married couples, old non‐friend pairs, and nominal groups of two individuals working on their own. The retrospective memory task was to recall episodic information given on a visit to a university campus. The prospective memory task was to remind the participants of actions to be performed during the visit. The prospective memory tasks were event‐based or time‐based. The delay or retention interval was also manipulated. In addition, an interview on how the elderly handled remembering during daily life was included. The results suggest that: (1) dyads suffered from collaboration relative to the predicted potential, replicating earlier research; old married couples did not reduce the same productivity loss as clearly as friends did in former studies; the couples who claimed that they used a transactive memory system, however, achieved the same productivity as the nominal pairs (i.e. the predicted potential; (2) the task effects produced unexpected results, some of which could be accounted for by the naturalistic setting used. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social determinants of subjective well-being among young adults living in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

We investigated the relationships between certain social determinants (age, gender, marital status, education, income, and employment) and subjective well-being (SWB) in a young adult population in the Eastern Cape Province in South Africa. The participants consisted of 977 persons aged 18 to 40 years living in the historically deprived Eastern Cape, South Africa (females = 48%; age range = 18 to 40; rural dwellers = 15%). We measured their SWB utilising the World Health Organization (Ten) Well-Being Scale. Results following analysis of variance showed that age, education, and income were predictors of SWB. Higher SWB was associated with being older, having a higher level of formal education, and having a higher level of income. However, employment status did not have a significant relationship with SWB, suggesting the relative importance of other social indicators of social functioning in this population.     

The effects of clinical supervision on supervisees and patients in cognitive behavioral therapy: a systematic review

Clinical supervision is a central part of psychotherapist training but the empirical support for specific supervision theories or features is unclear. The aims of this study were to systematically review the empirical research literature regarding the effects of clinical supervision on therapists’ competences and clinical outcomes within Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT). A comprehensive database search resulted in 4103 identified publications. Of these, 133 were scrutinized and in the end 5 studies were included in the review for data synthesis. The five studies were heterogeneous in scope and quality and only one provided firm empirical support for the positive effects of clinical supervision on therapists’ competence. The remaining four studies suffered from methodological weaknesses, but provided some preliminary support that clinical supervision may be beneficiary for novice therapists. No study could show benefits from supervision for patients. The research literature suggests that clinical supervision may have some potential effects on novice therapists’ competence compared to no supervision but the effects on clinical outcomes are still unclear. While bug-in-the-eye live supervision may be more effective than standard delayed supervision, the effects of specific supervision models or features are also unclear. There is a continued need for high-quality empirical studies on the effects of clinical supervision in psychotherapy.     

Empirically Defining Treatment Response and Remission in Body Dysmorphic Disorder Using a Short Self-Report Instrument

Determining response or remission status in body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) usually requires a lengthy interview with a trained clinician. This study sought to establish empirically derived cutoffs to define treatment response and remission in BDD using a brief self-report instrument, the Appearance Anxiety Inventory (AAI). Results from three clinical trials of BDD were pooled to create a sample of 123 individuals who had received cognitive-behavioral therapy for BDD, delivered via the Internet. The AAI was compared to gold-standard criteria for response and remission in BDD, based on the clinician-administered Yale–Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale, modified for BDD (BDD-YBOCS), and evaluated using signal detection analysis. The results showed that a ≥ 40% reduction on the AAI best corresponded to treatment response, with a sensitivity of 0.71 and a specificity of 0.84. A score ≤ 13 at posttreatment was the optimal cutoff in determining full or partial remission from BDD, with a sensitivity of 0.75 and a specificity of 0.88. These findings provide benchmarks for using the AAI in BDD treatment evaluation when resource-intensive measures administered by clinicians are not feasible.     

Anders Örtenblad (ed.): Debating Equal Pay for All: Economy,Practicability and Ethics Palgrave Macmillan, 2021. eBook (ISBN 978-3-030-53575-9) 85.59 €. 320 pages

Ethical Theory and Moral Practice -