Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information

This paper reports on three studies investigating how accurately bettors (=people who regularly bet on sports events) interpret the probabilistic information implied by betting odds. All studies were based on data collected by web surveys prompting a total of 186 experienced bettors to convert sets of representative odds into frequency judgments. Bayesian statistical methods were used to analyze the data. From the results, the following conclusions were made: (i) On the whole, the bettors produced well‐calibrated judgments, indicating that they have realistic perceptions of odds. (ii) Bettors were unable to consciously adjust judgments for different margins. (iii) Although their interval judgments often covered the estimates implied by the odds, the bettors tended to overestimate the variation of expected profitable bets between months. The results are consistent with prior research showing that people tend to make accurate probability judgments when faced with tasks characterized by constant and clear feedback. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Being Employed by a Co-national: A Cul-de-sac or a Short Cut to the Main Road of the Labour Market?

This paper analyses the impact of working in an ethnic economy on subsequent labour market performance for newly arrived immigrants. Is it a short cut to the labour market or does it lock immigrants into low income jobs? Working in an ethnic economy is defined as being employed by a self-employed co-national. The comparison group is a matched sample of newly arrived immigrants who were without employment during the same period. Swedish panel data for the period 1998?C2005 are used, and the sample is restricted to male immigrants, 20?C55?years of age. Using propensity score matching, we find that immigrants who were employed by self-employed co-nationals are more likely to be employed in the near future, but that the types of employment they have are associated with lower incomes. Many continue to be employed by self-employed co-nationals or become self-employed themselves.     

Effects of the timing and identity of retrieval cues in individual recall: an attempt to mimic cross-cueing in collaborative recall

Inhibitory effects in collaborative recall have been attributed to cross-cueing among partners, in the same way that part-set cues are known to impair recall in individuals. However, studies of part-set cueing in individuals typically involve presenting cues visually at the start of recall, whereas cross-cueing in collaboration is likely to be spoken and distributed over time. In an attempt to bridge this gap, three experiments investigated effects of presenting spoken part-set or extra-list cues at different times during individual recall. Cues had an inhibitory effect on recollection in the early part of the recall period, especially when presented in immediate succession at the start of recall. There was no difference between the effects of part-set and extra-list cues under these presentation conditions. However, more inhibition was generated by part-set than extra-list cues when cue presentation was distributed throughout recall. These results are interpreted as suggesting that cues presented during recall disrupt memory in two ways, corresponding to either blocking or modifying retrieval processes. Implications for explaining and possibly ameliorating inhibitory effects in collaborative recall are discussed.     

Creativity and the subliminal manipulation of projected self‐images

Abstract:

This is a report of two experiments on the relationship between creativity and the effects of manipulations of self‐image. Creativity was estimated with the Creative Functioning Test (CFT), an assessment of the tendency to bar the use of subjective interpretations when the support for a “correct” interpretation is being gradually eroded. Self‐image was manipulated in the Identification Test (IT). This involves a backwards masking design in which an ambiguous picture of a face is presented briefly on a viewing screen, preceded by either of two subliminal verbal messages. These were I SUPERIOR and I INFERIOR in a pilot study (n = 25) and I GOOD and I BAD in the main study (n = 33). In the latter, there was also an interview which served to further cross‐validate the CFT. In both studies, creative subjects alternated between reporting young faces and adult ones significantly more often than uncreative subjects. Their identity was not, then, fixedly adult. Creative and uncreative subjects also defended their projected self‐image in different ways against the subliminal manipulations. High and stable self‐confidence was typical of both highly creative and uncreative subjects, but not of subjects in the middle range. Still, the self‐confidence in the two extreme groups was only superficially similar.     

Using facial emotional stimuli in visual search experiments: The arousal factor explains contradictory results

For more than two decades, visual search experiments using pictures of emotional faces as stimuli have generated contradictory results. Evidence of a superior detection of angry faces compared to happy faces have been mixed with an equal amount of evidence in the opposite direction. In this article, we review this literature, and examine the hypothesis that the neglected stimulus factor of emotional arousal may explain these contradictory results. Through an extensive reanalysis of results from our own laboratory as well as from other researchers, we show that the arousal factor systematically influences the outcome of the reviewed visual search experiments, and may thus provide a key to the historical contradictions within this research field.     

Hearing Impairment, Coping Strategies, and Anxiety Sensitivity

The aim was to study coping strategies among hearing-impaired individuals by using a validated coping instrument—The Ways of Coping Questionnaire (WOCQ; S. Folkman & R. Lazarus, 1988)—and to relate the use of coping with anxiety sensitivity and experience of hearing impairment. A questionnaire booklet was sent out to the members of the local branch of the Swedish Hard of Hearing Association. Ninety-four members responded to the questionnaire, yielding a 53% response rate. Primary outcome measures were the WOCQ, the Anxiety Sensitivity Index, and visual analogue scale rating of discomfort from hearing impairment. Repeated measures analysis of WOCQ subscales showed that the participants used planful problem solving and self-controlling coping strategies whereas escape/avoidance responses were less frequently used than the other coping strategies. Anxiety sensitivity was associated with escape/avoidance coping (r = .63, p < .0001). In conclusion, hearing-impaired individuals do not use escape/avoidance coping more than other coping strategies. However, escape/avoidance coping is associated with anxiety sensitivity, suggesting that sensitivity to anxiety sensations is an important associated factor. Coping strategies were not associated with discomfort from hearing impairment in any meaningful way.     

On central control of body fluid homeostasis

The paper is a discussion of the manners in which cerebral receptor systems may perceive the changes in the internal environment which arise in consequence of deviations from fluid balance. Arguments are presented against the current osmoreceptor theory which implies that receptors in the hypothalamic region are stimulated directly by blood hypertonicity. Recent studies are reviewed which indicate that a possible alternative to hypothalamic osmoreceptors may be receptors in the close vicinity of the third ventricle which are influenced by the Na⁺ concentration of the cerebrospinal fluid. Evidence is presented that a sodium sensitive receptor system of this kind participates, not only in the control of water balance, but also in the regulation of the renal Na⁺ excretion and of the arterial blood pressure. The demonstration of a striking central sodium-angiotensin interaction implies that periventricular sodium sensitive receptors also may be a final link in a volumetric regulation of thirst and ADH release which is mediated by the reninangiotensin system.