The foundations of epistemological probability

Epistemological probability is the kind of probability relative to a body of evidence. Many philosophers, including Henry Kyburg and Roderick Chisholm, hold that all epistemological probabilities reflect a relation between an evidential body of propositions and other propositions. But this article argues that some epistemological probabilities for empirical propositions must be relative to non-propositional evidence, specifically the contents of non-propositional perceptual states. In doing so, the article distinguishes between internalism and externalism regarding epistemological probability, and argues for a version of awareness internalism. The article draws three main concluding lessons. First, epistemological probability is not to be identified with the sort of objective, experience-independent probability that is familiar from statistical and propensity interpretations of probability. Second, it is doubtful that epistemological probability is measurable, in any useful way, by real numbers, even if it admits of comparative assessments. Third, contrary to the familiar claim of C. I. Lewis, epistemological probability should not be viewed as requiring a basis of certainty.     

Subject knowledge of the Experimenter''s interest in handedness and familial sinistrality variables and laterality test outcomes

We investigated the possible influence of common "demand characteristics" on the results on behavioral language laterality tasks. The demand characteristics were (1) whether Ss were or were not recruited for study according to their handedness, and (2) whether a detailed familial sinistrality inquiry was conducted before or after the tasks. Tasks were the Dichotic Consonant Vowel Task (DCVT) and the Bilateral Object Naming Latency Task (BONLT). Results showed no effect of demand characteristics on the BONLT. On the DCVT, however, prior inquiry regarding familial sinistrality was associated with significantly reduced right ear advantages (REAs). Interactions showed that the greatest reduction in REAs occurred in Ss with left-handedness in their families, who were asked about familial sinistrality prior to the tasks, who took the DCVT after the BONLT, and who were also recruited by handedness. Results, though generally reassuring regarding the robustness of the tasks against these sources of bias, raise some cautions for the DCVT.     

Accuracy of estimations of body-frame size as a function of sex and actual frame size

Body-frame size is an important factor in determining an optimal body weight for a given height. Previous studies have indicated that many individuals incorrectly estimate their body-frame size, and, as a result, incorrectly assess their ideal weight. The present study investigated the accuracy of estimation of body-frame size as a function of sex and actual frame size. The subjects were 66 men and 52 women participating in a community adult fitness program. Data indicated that medium-framed individuals were the most accurate in their estimations of body-frame size. Also, women were twice as likely to be accurate as were men. These results are interpreted to mean that most people assume they are medium-framed and that there is a sex difference in the way body-frame size is estimated.     

SETTING CUTOFF SCORES: LEGAL, PSYCHOMETRIC, AND PROFESSIONAL ISSUES AND GUIDELINES

Cutoff scores are used in a variety of settings to help managers make personnel decisions. Although cutoff scores are used widely, information about their derivation and appropriate use is scattered in the legal, psychometric, and professional literatures. The purpose of this paper is to analyze critically and to integrate these diverse literatures, to summarize what is known and what is unknown about the use and misuse of cutoff scores. Alternative methods are examined in relation to legal precedents set by the courts, to psychometric principles, and to the various sets of professional guidelines. Directions for future research are suggested, and we conclude with a set of recommendations regarding acceptable professional practice in this area.     

Self-esteem of adolescent girls as related to weight

The Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale was administered to 550 14- and 16-yr.-old (+/- 6 mo.) girls. Self-esteem scores were categorized by weight and weight by height. Scores on the Quetelet Index for obesity were correlated with self-esteem scores. Mean self-esteem of the low- and middle-weight by height group was significantly higher than the mean of the high-weight by height group. In analyzing weight alone, the self-esteem of the middle-weight group was significantly higher than the self-esteem of the high-weight group. The correlation of the obesity index and self-esteem indicated that as weight increased self-esteem decreased.     

Listeriosis of the central nervous system in children beyond the neonatal period

Observations on three children with neurolisteriosis (one case of meningitis, two cases of meningoencephalitis, each Serovar 4 b), show that even after the neonatal period, listeriosis must not be ignored in the process of diagnosis and therapy. It is the bacteriological examination of the cerebrospinal fluid, together with the blood culture, and not clinical symptoms and serology that guarantee a timely diagnosis and therapy (ampicillin and gentamicin).     

Sample size determinations for the two rater kappa statistic

This paper gives a method for determining a sample size that will achieve a prespecified bound on confidence interval width for the interrater agreement measure,. The same results can be used when a prespecified power is desired for testing hypotheses about the value of kappa. An example from the literature is used to illustrate the methods proposed here.     

Effects of aging and task difficulty on divided attention performance

We report two experiments that compare the performance of young and older adults on perceptual-motor tasks involving division of attention. Previous studies have shown older people to be especially penalized by divided attention situations, but the generality of this finding was recently challenged by Somberg and Salthouse (1982). The present study was conducted to investigate the possibility that age differences in dual-task performance are amplified by an increase in the difficulty of the constituent tasks, where difficulty was manipulated by varying the central, cognitive nature of the tasks (Experiment 1) or the degree of choice involved (Experiment 2). With the present tasks, strong evidence was found for an age-related decrement in divided attention performance. Contrary to our original expectations, however, it does not seem that division of attention presents some especial difficulty to older people. Rather, division of attention is one of several equivalent ways to increase overall task complexity. In turn, age differences are exaggerated as tasks are made more complex.     

S-R compatibility between response position and destination of apparent motion: evidence of the detection of affordances

In choice reaction time, stimuli and responses in some combinations (e.g., based on spatial arrangement) are faster than in other combinations. To test whether motion toward a position yields faster responses at that position, a computer-generated square in front of one hand appeared to move either toward that hand or toward the other hand. Compatible responses (e.g., motion toward left hand/left response) were faster than incompatible responses, even when that opposed traditional positional compatibility. In Experiment 2, subjects responded to the same stimuli but with both hands left, right, or on the body midline. Medial responses were the fastest, showing that destination, rather than mere relative position, was a critical variable. It was suggested that spatial compatibility effects are not unique to position but apply to a variety of task situations, describable by J.J. Gibson's theory of affordances, in which he claims that one perceives the actions (e.g., catching) permitted in a situation.