The nature of probability

The thesis of this article is that the nature of probability is centered on its formal properties, not on any of its standard interpretations. Section 2 is a survey of Bayesian applications. Section 3 focuses on two examples from physics that seem as completely objective as other physical concepts. Section 4 compares the conflict between subjective Bayesians and objectivists about probability to the earlier strident conflict in physics about the nature of force. Section 5 outlines a pragmatic approach to the various interpretations of probability. Finally, Sect. 6 argues that the essential formal nature of probability is expressed in the standard axioms, but more explicit attention should be given to the concept of randomness.     

Individuals and environments: Linking ability and skill ratings with interests

Holland's (1997) theory of corresponding person and work environment structures was evaluated by comparing the integration of individual and occupational ratings of interests, abilities, and skills. Occupational ratings were obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET database (U.S. Department of Labor, 2007). College students (494 women, 526 men) provided self-ratings of their interests, abilities, and skills. Property vector fitting was used to embed ability and skill ratings into the Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, and Conventional (RIASEC) interest structure, and bootstrapping was used to generate confidence intervals for the angles of the vectors and the magnitude of their fit to the Holland model. Across the individual and occupational ratings, 18 of 45 (40%) ability vectors and 41 of 48 (85%) skill vectors were fit into the RIASEC model. No significant gender differences were found in the integration of self-rated abilities and skills into the RIASEC circumplex; however, some differences were found between individual and environmental ratings. Obtained results highlight the potential utility and limitations of using Holland's model for representing both individual and occupational data in a common structure.     

We all live in Germany but … Ingroup projection,group‐based emotions and prejudice against immigrants

Immigration, cultural diversity and integration are among the most central challenges for modern societies. Integration is often impeded by negative emotions and prejudices held by the majority members towards immigrants in a common society. Based on the ingroup projection model (Mummendey & Wenzel, 1999), we examined the impact of perceived relative ingroup prototypicality on intergroup emotions and prejudice. Additionally, we examined whether this impact is causal and explored the issue of causality in more detail contrasting a linear causal model with bi‐directional or reciprocal causality. Hypotheses were tested in a study with a two‐wave panel of majority members (N=1085) in Germany. We examined the proposed relations between relative ingroup prototypicality, intergroup emotions and prejudice and determined the causal direction of these relationships. Results support the predictive power of relative ingroup prototypicality on intergroup emotions and prejudice. Moreover, most causal relations between our measures are reciprocally causal. We discuss the implications of these findings for the general conception of prejudice and intergroup emotions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ethnic Differences in Perceived Impairment and Need for Care

Latino children in the U.S. have high rates of unmet need for mental health services, perhaps due to biased perceptions of impairment and need for care by parents and providers. We tested this argument using an experimental vignette design. Vignettes described children with problems that varied on severity (mild vs. serious), nature of the problem (internalizing vs. externalizing), as well as gender and ethnicity (Latino vs. Anglo). Raters were Latino and Anglo parents (N = 185) and providers (N = 189). Vignettes with Latino names were viewed as more impaired by both parents and providers, and this effect was significantly stronger in Latino vignettes with less severe problems. Severity and Latino features of vignettes also interacted with judgments of need for service. At higher severity, vignettes with Anglo names were judged to need service more than vignettes with Latino names, despite the same judged levels of impairment. Results are discussed in the light of the unmet need for Latinos.     

Frontal cortex functioning in the infant broader autism phenotype

Atypical attention has been proposed as a marker of the broader autism phenotype. In the present study we investigated this and the related process of inhibitory control at the youngest possible age through the study of infant siblings of children with an autism spectrum disorder (Sibs-ASD). Both attention and inhibition have been related to the frontal cortex of the brain. Nine- to ten-month-old Sibs-ASD and low-risk control infants completed the Freeze-Frame task, in which infants are encouraged to inhibit looks to peripherally presented distractors whilst looking at a central animation. The attractiveness of the central stimulus is varied in order to investigate the selectivity of infants’ responses. In line with previous studies, it was found that a subset of Sibs-ASD infants had difficulty disengaging attention from a central stimulus in order to orient to a peripheral stimulus. The Sibs-ASD group also showed less Selective Inhibition than controls. However, Sibs-ASD infants did demonstrate Selective Inhibitory Learning. These results provide preliminary evidence for atypical frontal cortex functioning in the infant broader autism phenotype.     

Peter McHugh: A Memoir of the Passion of Theorizing

This paper is a personal and theoretic commemoration of Peter McHugh’s life and commitment through the prism of the writer’s discovery of, and involvement in, the effort from the late 1960s to diagnose and respond to “the failure of positivism” in sociology. Peter’s work (with that of Alan Blum) formed a central component of that effort. I trace the genealogy of Peter’s teaching and conversational practice, to his roots in ethnomethodology and his involvement with Harold Garfinkel. This is followed by an account of how Peter developed and transformed the ethnomethodological impulse, from the “uninterestingly” enforceable towards the invitation to share in the discovery and reconstruction of interest. The paper concludes by situating the time that is its focus, acknowledging the depth of Peter’s impact, and opening for future engagement the subsequent development of his work, in the context of various debates and questions (briefly alluded to) that form a part of the life of theorizing in the early twenty-first century.     

Horizontal and vertical attentional orienting in Parkinson’s disease

Patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) typically suffer from an asymmetric degeneration of dopaminergic cells in the substantia nigra, resulting in right-sided (RPD) or left-sided (LPD) predominance of motor symptomatology. As the dopaminergic system is also involved in attention, we examined horizontal and vertical orienting of attention in LPD (N = 10), RPD (N = 9) and controls (N = 10). Four LPD patients demonstrated left neglect and three LPD patients demonstrated neglect for the upper visual field. LPD patients demonstrated a slower performance in detecting targets in the left hemifield and did not demonstrate a validity effect, unlike RPD patients and controls. RPD patients performed similar to controls, with the exception of one patient showing left and another showing right neglect, and two RPD patients demonstrated lower neglect. In sum, horizontal and vertical orienting of attention can be affected in Parkinson’s disease – particularly in LPD – from very subtle slowing to clinically detectable horizontal and/or vertical neglect.     

Come on in, the Water is Fine: Achieving Mainstream Relevance through Integration with Primary Medical Care

Behavior analysis is a generic science, and Skinner's vision for it was that it would become a mainstream force, relevant for most if not all human concerns, major and minor. Clearly his vision has not been realized. Determining why this is the case would require a complex multifactorial analysis. One likely factor is that the majority of its basic science findings have been obtained from the study of rats and pigeons. Another likely factor, one directly addressed by this paper, is that the majority of its applied science findings have been obtained from the study of people in only one tail of the normal distribution. Regardless, those outside the field see the relevance of behavior analysis to general human affairs as very limited. Whether the path behavior analysis is on will lead to widespread perception of mainstream relevance anytime soon seems doubtful. An alternative route would involve integrating it with a field that has already made the trip successfully. A premier example involves primary medical care. This paper argues for the integration of behavior analysis with pediatric primary care, sketches a method for its accomplishment, and uses diurnal enuresis to illustrate the requirements of the method.