Probability and radical behaviorism

The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively.     

Task bias and the accuracy of judgment: Setting a baseline for expected group performance

When a judgment task evokes unbiased estimates (i.e. the errors in individual judgments are distributed randomly around the true value), mathematical aggregation of individual estimates, even by a simple arithmetic mean, often will outperform all group members. However, when a task evokes biased estimates, mathematical aggregation does not perform so well. In this study, simulated data were accumulated to specify the expected' accuracy of mathematical aggregation relative to the accuracy of observed judgment of individual group members under varying conditions of task bias. Three types of judgment tasks were employed: (1) single-estimate, holistic tasks, (2) multiple-estimate, ranking tasks, and (3) multi-cue, decomposed tasks. Findings indicated across all task types that a large percentage of judgment-making group estimates formed strictly by computing the arithmetic mean of individual estimates performed better than their most capable members when a judgment task evoked little or no bias, a result particularly pronounced for ranking tasks. When the task was more greatly bias-evoking, a large percentage of parallel groups performed more poorly than average (or median) members, again a pattern more starkly evident for ranking tasks. These results suggest that the extent to which a judgment task evokes bias in a population of prospective group members is an important explanatory variable deserving much greater attention in the study of group performance. For example, an assertion about the efficacy of a particular group intervention based on a reliable demonstration of group performance as accurate as the most capable members may be unfounded when a task evokes no bias, since the baseline standard under such conditions should be much higher. By selecting tasks and populations that jointly produced highly biased estimates, researchers can lower the performance floor enough to detect (with reasonably small samples of groups) experimental effects should they occur.     

Oculomotor readiness and covert orienting: Differences between central and peripheral precues

The costs produced by invalid precues can depend on the spatial relationship between the cued location and the target location. If oculomotor programs mediate attention shifts, then the effect of varying the spatial relation between the cue and target should be the same for covert orienting (indexed by manual responses) and saccadic responses. We found this to be true only for central precues. With central precues, both manual and saccadic costs were greater when cue and target occurred on opposite sides of the vertical meridian than when they occurred on the same side. With peripheral precues, there were no meridian effects in either response condition, but there was a significant dissociation in the pattern of saccadic and manual costs. For manual responses costs were greater when the target was eccentric relative to the cue, whereas for saccades costs were greater when the cue was eccentric to the target. These results provide additional support for the idea that different orienting mechanisms are engaged by central and peripheral precues. They further suggest that the relationship between oculomotor and attentional orienting may depend on the nature of the precue, with the potential for interdependence being greater with central precues.     

HIV counselling in the national blood transfusion service

The problems caused for the NBTS by the advent of HIV are reviewed, with particular reference to the impact on blood donor numbers, the strategies adopted to minimise the risk of HIV infection through blood transfusion, and the counselling dilemmas faced by the Service in the setting of the blood donor clinic. The notification procedure for blood donors found anti-HIV positive is described, with the importance of confirmation of such results before approach to the donor emphasised. Counselling issues arising from indeterminate and false positive lest results are explored and those arising from enquiries generated by cases of possible post-transfusion HIV infection are examined.     

Conversational skills for autistic adolescents: An autistic peer as prompter

In this study, an autistic youth served as peer prompter for three other autistic adolescents. The peer prompter encouraged the other boys to talk about sports, a topic frequently discussed by typical teenagers. A multiple-baseline design across participants was used to assess the effectiveness of the peer-prompting procedure. During baseline, the youth rarely talked about sports, although all three had previously completed a sports-appreciation class and had displayed large pre-to-post gains on a paper-and-pencil test. During intervention, when a peer prompted sports discussions, all three youth engaged in much more sports-related conversation. Generalization measures indicated that: (1) the youth engaged in sports discussions in groups, as well as in the dyads that characterized the training situation; (2) they talked about sports in a setting other than the training setting; (3) they discussed sports with their peers when an unfamiliar teacher was present; and (4) they continued to discuss sports when training tapes and behavioral contracts between the teacher and the peer prompter were withdrawn. Previously, it has been common to use nonhandicapped or less-handicapped peers as tutors; this study demonstrates that an autistic youth may also effectively serve as a prompter who assists his schoolmates in acquiring conversational skills that contribute to their normalization.     

The role of visual information in the processing of

Visual information provided by a talker’s mouth movements can influence the perception of certain speech features. Thus, the “McGurk effect” shows that when the syllable /bi/ is presented audibly, in synchrony with the syllable /gi/, as it is presented visually, a person perceives the talker as saying /di/. Moreover, studies have shown that interactions occur between place and voicing features in phonetic perception, when information is presented audibly. In our first experiment, we asked whether feature interactions occur when place information is specified by a combination of auditory and visual information. Members of an auditory continuum ranging from /ibi/ to /ipi/ were paired with a video display of a talker saying /igi/. The auditory tokens were heard as ranging from /ibi/ to /ipi/, but the auditory-visual tokens were perceived as ranging from /idi/ to /iti/. The results demonstrated that the voicing boundary for the auditory-visual tokens was located at a significantly longer VOT value than the voicing boundary for the auditory continuum presented without the visual information. These results demonstrate that place-voice interactions are not limited to situations in which place information is specified audibly. In three follow-up experiments, we show that (1) the voicing boundary is not shifted in the absence of a change in the global percept, even when discrepant auditory-visual information is presented; (2) the number of response alternatives provided for the subjects does not affect the categorization or the VOT boundary of the auditory-visual stimuli; and (3) the original effect of a VOT boundary shift is not replicated when subjects are forced by instruction to \ldrelabel\rd the /b-p/auditory stimuli as/d/or/t/. The subjects successfully relabeled the stimuli, but no shift in the VOT boundary was observed.     

Woman and athlete: Toward role consistency

The purpose of this study was to examine the attitudes of a general population toward female participation in sports and to replicate a previous study. The two areas investigated were (1) the perception of enhancement or detraction of femininity by girls' participation in athletics, and (2) whether different sports elicited different attitudes towards female participation in athletics. A town in Iowa was sampled. The results indicated that, in general, participation in sports neither detracted from nor enhanced femininity. Furthermore, most of the people wanted their daughters to play basketball, even though it neither detracted from nor enhanced femininity. The data suggest that traditional, rigid sex-role stereotypes were transcended and the opportunity set was dominant.This study was partially funded by a grant from the University of Iowa Graduate School. Appreciation is expressed to Dr. Eldon Snyder for graciously sharing his instrument and recent work.     

The psychological cost of waiting

The study of any problem involving waiting situations invariably assumes that people dislike having to wait. The analysis of queueing problems usually prescribes that some costs should be associated with the time people spend waiting to be served. These are usually considered to be of an economic nature, though the existence of other costs of a psychological nature is accepted. It is generally accepted that after having to wait for a certain amount of time, anxiety and stress start to build up in an individual, due both to the sense of waste and the uncertainty involved in a waiting situation. This work provides a theoretical basis for analysing this building up process as it occurs during the waiting period. It is proved that, under very general conditions, the resulting psychological stress accumulated during the process is a marginal increasing function of the waiting time, and some strategies to minimise it are developed. The results obtained give theoretical support to the usual assumptions underlying the development of systems to provide “real time” information to people in waiting situations. This is especially important in the operation of public transportation systems. The results also provide theoretical support to the “convex” treatment usually given to the waiting cost function in queueing problems.     

Causal internalization of academic performance as a function of self-esteem and performance satisfaction

In the present investigation, we integrated self-theories (specifically, theories of cognitive consistency and self-esteem) with attribution theory. Our intent was to clarify the effects of different levels of self-esteem and performance satisfaction on causal internalization of academic performance. Subjects were 162 university students who attributed causality for their individual performances on a midterm examination. Attributions to four internal and four external causal sources were analyzed with a 2 × 2 (Self-Concept × Performance Satisfaction) MANOVA and with follow-up univariate F ratios. Most of the findings support the predictions based on self-esteem theory; i.e., satisfaction with performance, rather than consistency of performance with self-esteem, served as the primary influence on internalization of causality, with students internalizing satisfying outcomes more than dissatisfying outcomes. Cognitive-consistency theory and B. Weiner's (1979, Journal of Educational Psychology, 71, 3–25) attribution proposal regarding maintenance of a stable self-concept also received support, as attributions to the internal and stable causal sources of ability and general effort were a function of an interaction of self-esteem and performance satisfaction. Hence, neither self-theory adequately anticipated the effects of self-esteem and performance satisfaction on causal internalization. Rather, a consolidation of theories is needed to explain the results.     

Sex roles and depression: A preliminary investigation of the direction of causality

The present study examined the direction of the relation between sex role self-concept and depression. A total of 23 males and 32 females were given the Personal Attributes Questionnaire and the Beck Depression Inventory at two times separated by a 3-month interval. Results of a cross-lagged panel correlational analysis found no evidence for sex role orientation as a cause of depression. Instead, the data suggested that emotional well being precedes self-perceived instrumentality, but the influence of third variables could not be overlooked. The implications of these data are discussed with particular reference to the need for more complex theoretical formulations of the relation between self-perceived instrumentality and adjustment.