Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence: Lessons Learned from Two Analytic Methods

One of the most common findings in behavioral decision research is that people have unrealistic beliefs about how much they know. However, demonstrating that misplaced confidence exists does not necessarily mean that there are costs to it. This paper contrasts two approaches toward answering whether misplaced confidence is good or bad, which we have labeled the overconfidence and unjustified confidence approach. We first consider conceptual and analytic issues distinguishing these approaches. Then, we provide findings from a set of simulations designed to determine when the approaches produce different conclusions across a range of possible confidence–knowledge–outcome relationships. Finally, we illustrate the main findings from the simulations with three empirical examples drawn from our own data. We conclude that the unjustified confidence approach is typically the preferred approach, both because it is appropriate for testing a larger set of psychological mechanisms as well as for methodological reasons. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical power of latent growth curve models to detect quadratic growth

Latent curve models (LCMs) have been used extensively to analyze longitudinal data. However, little is known about the power of LCMs to detect nonlinear trends when they are present in the data. For this study, we utilized simulated data to investigate the power of LCMs to detect the mean of the quadratic slope, Type I error rates, and rates of nonconvergence during the estimation of quadratic LCMs. Five factors were examined: the number of time points, growth magnitude, interindividual variability, sample size, and the R ²s of the measured variables. The results showed that the empirical Type I error rates were close to the nominal value of 5 %. The empirical power to detect the mean of the quadratic slope was affected by the simulation factors. Finally, a substantial proportion of samples failed to converge under conditions of no to small variation in the quadratic factor, small sample sizes, and small R ² of the repeated measures. In general, we recommended that quadratic LCMs be based on samples of (a) at least 250 but ideally 400, when four measurement points are available; (b) at least 100 but ideally 150, when six measurement points are available; (c) at least 50 but ideally 100, when ten measurement points are available.     

Cognitive function in older adults according to current socioeconomic status

Cognitive function may be influenced by education, socioeconomic status, sex, and health status. Furthermore, aging interacts with these factors to influence cognition and dementia risk in late life. Factors that may increase or decrease successful cognitive aging are of critical importance, particularly if they are modifiable. The purpose of this study was to determine if economic status in late life is associated with cognition independent of socioeconomic status in early life. Cross-sectional demographic, socioeconomic, and cognitive function data were obtained in 2592 older adults (average age 71.6 years) from the Center for Disease Control’s National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and analyzed with linear regression modeling. Cognitive function, as measured with a test of processing speed, was significantly associated with poverty index scores after adjusting for educational attainment as an estimate of childhood socioeconomic status, ethnic background, age, health status, and sex (P < 0.001). Our findings suggest that current economic status is independently associated with cognitive function in adults over age 60 years.     

A sham drug improves a demanding prospective memory task

Every day, people rely on prospective memory—our ability to remember to perform a future action—to carry out myriad tasks. We examined how a sham cognitive enhancing drug might improve people's performance on a prospective memory task. We gave some people (but not others) the sham drug, and asked everyone to perform a high-effort prospective memory task. People who received the sham drug performed better on the prospective memory task. They also took longer to perform their ongoing task, suggesting that they increased their effortful monitoring. These results fit with research showing that suggestions can lead people to increase cognitive effort and increase memory performance.     

The interpretation of change in verbal reports: Implications for health psychology

Abstract

This paper raises a number of issues for health psychology in relation to the interpretation of change in verbal reports. Drawing on a typology of change developed to evaluate organisational interventions, it is suggested that change may occur at an alpha level (e.g. changed health status), beta level (e.g. a recalibration of the respondent's scale for assessing health status) or gamma level (e.g. a reconceptualisation of the meaning attached to health). Given the likely presence of beta and/or gamma change in intervention data in health psychology, researchers may be analysing their change data at an inappropriate level. A number of existing methodologies which attempt to detect beta and gamma change are presented and discussed. The need to develop further methodologies which focus more explicitly on the nature of change is highlighted. Finally, the proposed typology has a number of practical implications for the design of health promotion interventions.     

Revs and Psychos: Role,Impact and Interaction of Sport Chaplains and Sport Psychologists within English Premiership Soccer

Despite an increased focus on spirituality and athlete well-being in sport (Watson, 2011), there is limited research regarding those who provide support to the athlete in these areas. The aim of this study was to explore the practice of sport psychologists and sport chaplains within professional soccer, and identify potential for working partnerships. By interviewing three psychologists and four chaplains who are employed currently within English Premiership soccer, it was revealed that significant overlap in their roles existed. The psychologists and chaplains identified barriers that restricted support offered to players, which may be addressed by working cooperatively in the future.