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51.
People chronically underestimate how long tasks will take. In their original article, the present authors (M. M. Roy, N. J. S. Christenfeld, & C. R. M. McKenzie, suggested a simple, broadly applicable explanation: Biased predictions result from biased memories. In their comment article, D. Griffin and R. Buehler suggested that in many domains in which this memory-bias account appears to out-predict their own account, theirs actually makes no prediction at all. However, the present authors did not suggest that only 1 theory is right but that theirs is consistent with data that prior theories, including their own, cannot explain. Ignoring memories of past tasks is not a complete explanation for the phenomenon if the memories people could consult are themselves biased. Nonetheless, underestimating future task duration is almost certainly multiply determined, and thus our account and theirs can coexist. 相似文献
52.
A simple and reliable apparatus for recording directional head movements of infants is described. The technique permits unrestricted movement and avoids distress associated with mechanical head harnesses. 相似文献
53.
Kyle Possemato Shannon McKenzie Meghan E. McDevitt-Murphy Joah L. Williams Paige Ouimette 《Military psychology》2013,25(1):15-22
Combat traumas precipitate posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); however, nontraumatic deployment and postdeployment factors may also contribute to PTSD severity. The Deployment Risk and Resilience Inventory (DRRI) was used to investigate pre-, peri-, and postdeployment factors associated with current PTSD severity in 150 recent combat veterans with PTSD and hazardous alcohol use. Hierarchal linear regression analyzed what factors independently predicted PTSD severity when controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and combat specific variables. Four postdeployment factors independently predicted PTSD severity: unemployment, alcohol use, social support, and stressful (nontraumatic) life events. The centrality of trauma in the maintenance of PTSD and clinical implications for treatment providers are discussed. 相似文献
54.
J. McKenzie Alexander 《Philosophical Studies》2010,147(1):103-121
Whereas The Stag Hunt and the Evolution of Social Structure supplements Evolution of the Social Contract by examining some of the earlier work’s strategic problems in a local interaction setting, no equivalent supplement exists for The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation. In this article, I develop a general framework for modeling the dynamics of rational deliberation in a local interaction setting. In doing so, I show that when local interactions are permitted, three interesting phenomena occur: (a) the attracting deliberative equilibria may fail to agree with any of the Nash equilibria of the underlying game, (b) deliberative dynamics which converged to the same deliberative outcome in The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation may lead to different deliberative outcomes here, and (c) Bayesian deliberation seems to be more likely to avoid nonstandard deliberative outcomes, contrary to the result reported in The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation, which argued in favour of the Brown–von Neumann–Nash dynamics. 相似文献
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Craig R.M. McKenzie Michael J. Liersch Ilan Yaniv 《Organizational behavior and human decision processes》2008
People’s 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students about both the IT industry and UCSD. This within-subjects experiment showed that experts and novices were about equally overconfident. Experts reported intervals that had midpoints closer to the true value—which increased hit rate—and that were narrower (i.e., more informative)—which decreased hit rate. The net effect was no change in hit rate and overconfidence. Experiment 2 showed that both experts and novices mistakenly expected experts to be much less overconfident than novices, but they correctly predicted that experts would provide narrower intervals with midpoints closer to the truth. Decisions about whether to consult experts should be based on which aspects of performance are desired. 相似文献
58.
A Randomized Controlled Trial of Coach Contact During a Brief Online Intervention for Distressed Couples 下载免费PDF全文
The negative impacts of relationship distress on the couple, the family, and the individual are well‐known. However, couples are often unable to access effective treatments to combat these effects—including many couples who might be at highest risk for relationship distress. Online self‐help interventions decrease the barriers to treatment and provide couples with high quality, research‐based programs they can do on their own. Using a combined multiple baseline and randomized design, the present study investigated the effectiveness of the Brief OurRelationship.com (Brief‐OR) program with and without staff support in improving relationship distress and individual functioning. Results indicated the program produced significant gains in several areas of relationship functioning; however, these gains were smaller in magnitude than those observed in Full‐OR. Furthermore, effects of Brief‐OR were not sustained over follow‐up. Comparisons between couples randomized to Brief‐OR with and without contact with a staff coach indicated that coach contact significantly reduced program noncompletion and improved program effects. Limitations and future directions are discussed. 相似文献
59.
McKenzie CR Wixted JT Noelle DC 《Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition》2004,30(5):947-959
Many purported demonstrations of irrational behavior rely on the assumption that participants believe key task parameters that are merely asserted by experimenters. For example, previous researchers have found that participants who first reported confidence in items presented in a yes-no format did not change confidence to the degree prescribed by the normative model when those same items were later presented in a forced-choice format. A crucial assumption, however, was that participants fully believed the assertion that the forced-choice items were mutually exclusive and exhaustive. In this article, the authors derive and test a new normative model in which it is not assumed that participants fully believe the assertion. Two visual identification experiments show that the new normative model provides a compelling account of participants' confidence reports. 相似文献
60.
McKenzie CR 《Trends in cognitive sciences》2003,7(9):403-406
When people's behavior in laboratory tasks systematically deviates from a rational model, the implication is that real-world performance could be improved by changing the behavior. However, recent studies suggest that behavioral violations of rational models are at least sometimes the result of strategies that are well adapted to the real world (and not necessarily to the laboratory task). Thus, even if one accepts that certain behavior in the laboratory is irrational, compelling evidence that real-world behavior ought to change accordingly is often lacking. It is suggested here that rational models be seen as theories, and not standards, of behavior. 相似文献