A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias

We conducted a meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias to gain an up-to-date summary of the overall strength of hindsight effects and to test hypotheses about potential moderators of hindsight distortion. A total of 95 studies (83 published and 12 unpublished) were included, and 252 independent effect sizes were coded for moderator variables in 3 broad categories involving characteristics of the study, of measurement, and of the experimental manipulation. When excluding missing effect sizes, the overall mean effect size was Md = .39 with a 95% confidence interval of .36 to .42. Five main findings emerged: (a) effect sizes calculated from objective probability estimates were larger than effect sizes calculated from subjective probability estimates; (b) effect sizes of studies that used almanac questions were larger than effect sizes of studies that used real-world events or case histories; (c) studies that included neutral outcomes resulted in larger effect sizes than studies that used positive or negative outcomes; (d) studies that included manipulations to increase hindsight bias resulted in significantly larger effect sizes than studies in which there were no manipulations to reduce or increase hindsight bias; and (e) studies that included manipulations to reduce hindsight bias did not produce lower effect sizes. These findings contribute to our understanding of hindsight bias by updating the state of knowledge, widening the range of known moderator variables, identifying factors that may activate different mediating processes, and highlighting critical gaps in the research literature.     

Recognition of complex object-centred spatial configurations in early infancy

In a series of experiments we tested 4- and 8-month-olds’ ability to represent the spatial layout of an object across changes in its orientation with respect to egocentric spatial coordinates. A fixed-trial familiarization procedure based on visual habituation behaviour shows that both age groups are able to discriminate between different object-centred spatial configurations. Furthermore, both age groups demonstrate the ability to make discriminations of object-centred spatial coordinates that require simultaneous reference to at least two spatial axes of the object. We discuss these findings in relation to theories of the early development of object recognition and spatial reference skills.     

Early mathematics achievement trajectories: English-language learner and native English-speaker estimates, using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey

This study used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999, to (a) estimate mathematics achievement trends through 5th grade in the population of students who are English-language proficient by the end of kindergarten, (b) compare trends across primary language groups within this English-language proficient group, (c) evaluate the effect of low socioeconomic status (SES) for English-language proficient students and within different primary language groups, and (d) estimate language-group trends in specific mathematics skill areas. The group of English-language proficient English-language learners (ELLs) was disaggregated into native Spanish speakers and native speakers of Asian languages, the 2 most prevalent groups of ELLs in the United States. Results of multilevel latent variable growth modeling suggest that primary language may be less salient than SES in explaining the mathematics achievement of English-language proficient ELLs. The study also found that mathematics-related school readiness is a key factor in explaining subsequent achievement differences and that the readiness gap is prevalent across the range of mathematics-related skills.     

Non-cognitivism and rational inference

Non-cognitivism might seem to offer a plausible account of evaluative judgments, at least on the assumption that there is a satisfactory solution to the Frege–Geach problem. However, Cian Dorr has argued that non-cognitivism remains implausible even assuming that the Frege–Geach problem can be solved, on the grounds that non-cognitivism still has to classify some paradigmatically rational inferences as irrational. Dorr’s argument is ingenious and at first glance seems decisive. However, in this paper I will show that Dorr’s argument equivocates between two different notions of evidence, and that once this equivocation is noted there is no reason to doubt that non-cognitivism is consistent with the rationality of such inferences, at least if it is assumed that the Frege–Geach problem can be solved. In particular, I will show that non-cognitivists can endorse the same explanation of the rationality of such inferences that cognitivists should endorse, and that there is thus no need for non-cognitivists to offer any sort of idiosyncratic account of the epistemology of such cases, in contrast to what other commentators on Dorr’s argument have thought.     

Which Domain of the PSY–5 Is Most Relevant to Substance Use?

Substance use has generally been related to lower levels of agreeableness and conscientiousness, but has evidenced relationships with other personality trait domains as well, including impulsivity. This study was conducted to determine which trait domain of personality is most related to substance use from the perspective of the Personality Psychopathology Five model (Harkness &; McNulty, 1994 Harkness, A. R., &; McNulty, J. L. (1994). The Personality Psychopathology Five (PSY–5): Issue from the pages of a diagnostic manual instead of a dictionary. In S. Strack &; M. Lorr (Eds.), Differentiating normal and abnormal personality (pp. 291–315). New York, NY: Springer. [Google Scholar]). Archival data were used from 2 clinical settings: 1 outpatient community mental health center and 1 inpatient Veteran's Affairs hospital. The outpatient sample was mostly female (58.9%), White (78.7%), and had a mean age of 33.01 (SD = 10.26). The inpatient sample was entirely male, predominantly White (91.5%), and had a mean age of 48.03 (SD = 13.88). Correlations were conducted to identify the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory–2–Restructured Form Personality Psychopathology Five scales (Ben-Porath &; Tellegen, 2008 Ben-Porath, Y. S., &; Tellegen, A. (2008). MMPI–2–RF: Manual for administration, scoring, and interpretation. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. [Google Scholar]; Harkness et al., 2013 Harkness, A. R., McNulty, J. L., Finn, J. A., Reynolds, S. M., Shields, S. M., &; Arbisi, P. (2013). The MMPI–2–RF Personality and Psychopathology Five (PSY–5) scales: Development and validity research. Journal of Personality Assessment, 96, 140–150. doi:10.1080/00223891.2013.823439[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) that were significantly related to variables measuring substance use. Subsequent regression analyses revealed that Disconstraint was the only significant predictor in the majority (89%) of analyses. In the event Disconstraint was not the only significant predictor, it continued to exhibit the largest unique predictive impact in the regression models. These results suggest that Disconstraint is the Personality Psychopathology-Five dimension most relevant to substance use.     

Having Our Say: African American Women,Diversity, and Counseling

African American female counseling professionals contribute greatly to the multicultural growth of the counseling profession by spurring the profession's evolution and defining new paradigms and counseling activities. Despite their contributions, they face serious organizational, intrapersonal, and interpersonal challenges to their success in academia. This article seeks to elucidate the challenges to African American female counseling professionals and offers systemic and personal strategies that will facilitate the profession's evolution to culturally competent, ethical, and intentional helping orientations and worldviews.     

Psychometric Properties of Parent–Child (0–5 years) Interaction Outcome Measures as Used in Randomized Controlled Trials of Parent Programs: A Systematic Review

This systematic review sought to identify observational measures of parent–child interactions commonly implemented in parenting program research, and to assess the level of psychometric evidence available for their use with this age group. Two separate searches of the same databases were conducted; firstly, to identify eligible instruments, and secondly to identify studies reporting on the psychometric properties of the identified measures. Five commercial platforms hosting 19 electronic databases were searched from their inception to conducted search dates. Fourteen measures were identified from Search 1; a systematic search of randomized controlled trial evaluations of parenting programs. For Search 2, inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied to 1327 retrieved papers that described the development and/or validation of the 14 measures identified in Search 1. Seventeen articles met the inclusion criteria, resulting in five observational measures for the final review. Data were extracted and synthesized using the COSMIN rating system to describe the methodological quality of each article alongside the overall quality rating of the psychometric property reported for each measure using the Terwee checklist. Measure reliability was categorized into four domains (internal consistency, test-re-test, inter-rater, and intra-rater). Measure validity was categorized into four domains (content, structural, convergent/divergent, and discriminant). Results indicated that the majority of psychometric evidence related to children aged from birth the three with internal consistency, inter-rater reliability, and structural validity the most commonly reported properties, although this evidence was often weak. The findings suggest further validation of the included measures is required to establish acceptability for the whole target age group.

     

From sharing to dividing: young children’s understanding of division

Children have particular difficulty with division problems, as compared to sharing problems. An inability to discriminate between the dividend, divisor and quotient might contribute to their difficulty with division. This study investigates whether young children (5–9 years) were able to discriminate between the divisor and quotient in simple division problems that were modeled for them. Children were presented with partitive and quotitive division problems in which the dividend was grouped either by the divisor or by the quotient. The children showed a very different pattern of results in the partitive and quotitive problems; they found it easier to identify the answer (quotient) when the dividend was grouped by the divisor in partitive problems and by the quotient in quotitive problems. It is argued that children rely on a schema of action of creating ‘portions’ when they first learn about division, and that the ‘portions’ produced by sharing are different in partitive and quotitive problems. We discuss this finding in terms of the importance of problem representation, children’s schemas of action and mental models.