Setting the sales budget: An exploratory study

This article explores how the sales budget is set in a business organization. Findings from a longitudinal participant observation study revealed that the sales budget is considered of great importance to the organization as sales estimates serve as premises for planning of production and supply and new product developments. It was observed that the sales budget was based on a narrow, inner-directed perspective, almost looking away from important environmental driving forces such as competitors and customers. The findings also showed that individuals involved in the sales budgeting process behaved opportunistically, influencing the budgetary process and outcomes. Theoretical and normative implications are highlighted.     

Functional measurement approach to self-estimation in multiattribute evaluation

Multiattribute analysis depends on measurement of values and weights. Unless these measures reflect the decision maker's true values and weights, the multiattribute formula may put a less-preferred alternative in first place. To avoid such disordinality requires stringent measurement conditions: First, the values and weights must be on linear (equal interval) or ratio (known zero) scales. Second, these scales must satisfy a condition of common unit across disparate attribute dimensions. Most methods of range adjustment beg both of these measurement questions. Functional measurement theory can solve both problems and so can be useful in multiattribute analysis. Past work has established the operation of a general cognitive algebra as an empirical reality. The averaging model, in particular, makes possible the definition and estimation of weights and values as distinct psychological parameters. It can also solve the problem of common unit. Cognitive algebra thus provides a grounded theoretical foundation on which to develop self-estimation methodology, in which decision makers provide direct estimates of their values and weights. The logic is straightforward. Functional measurement can analyze global judgments to obtain validated psychological scales. These scales may then be used as validational criteria for the self-estimates. Procedures to eliminate biases in the self-estimates can thus be tested and refined in well-learned multiattribute tasks, such as judgments of meals, in which global judgments are trustworthy. Once developed, such self-estimation procedures may be used with some confidence for general multiattribute analysis. A number of studies from 20-odd years of work on the theory of information integration are summarized to show good, although not unmixed promise for self-estimation.     

An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Reversal of genetic homeostasis in laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster under long-term selection for geotaxis and estimates of gene correlates: evolution of behavior-genetic systems

Among Drosophila melanogaster, divergently selected for geotaxis intermittently over 600 generations (28 years), about 80,000 animals have been analyzed behavior-genetically. Each major chromosome pair from two lines was isogenized on an unselected isogenic background. Measurement of their behavioral effects revealed the relative magnitudes II greater than III greater than X for the negatively geotactic (high) line and X greater than III greater than II for the positively geotactic (low) line. When reversing selection for the now phenotypically stable high and low lines and then repeatedly relaxing the reversals, a new genetic homeostasis in the low line was indicated by the return of the reversed-line average scores towards the low extreme; that is, the low line has attained a stable equilibrium for positive geotaxis, an uncharacteristic behavior and an effect not seen before 1979. This change suggests the recent evolution of a new coadaptation among genes. Although not as conclusive, a similar genetic interpretation is suggested for the high line.     

A developmental-genetic analysis of aggressive behavior in mice (Mus musculus): III. Behavioral mediation by heightened reactivity or immobility?

This research was designed to investigate development and behavioral mediation in lines of ICR mice that have been selectively bred for aggressive behavior. General behavioral reactivity and behavioral immobility have been implicated as potential mediators by prior analyses of preattack interactions. To evaluate the separate roles of these dispositions, the emergence of attacks in genetically selected lines was tracked for 11 years by three levels of analysis: over successive generations, over development, and over dyadic interactions. Convergent outcomes were observed in all three levels with respect to two findings: (a) Robust line differences were obtained in attack behaviors, and (b) strong associations were found between line differences in attacks and line differences in behavioral immobility. Conversely, all three levels of analysis indicated a weak and inconsistent association between line differences in attacks and measures of social and nonsocial reactivity.     

Coping with victimization: The impact of rape on female survivors,male significant others,and parents

This paper reports on an unusual study of survivors of rape and the effects on the victim, her significant male other person, and her parents. All survivors were victims of the same rapist and were interviewed from 21 months to ten years after the event. The study indicates that the long-term effects of rape may be more significant than previous researchers and practitioners thought was the case. Recommendations are given for more effective help for survivors and those close to them.This study was funded by the Ohio Department of Mental Health, Office of Program Evaluation and Research, Columbus, Ohio, 1985.     

Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Cance and luck are not the same

In the mind of many people chance and luck act as real but different causes of events. Even in strictly defined situations as casino gambling, people may perceive influences of luck that help to overcome the negative expectancy defined by the rules of chance. Interviews with gamblers in casinos confirmed this idea. In two experiments it was established that the distinction between chance and luck are also made by ordinary subjects in everyday situations. The results revealed that chance is perceived to operate when an event is surprising, an unexpected coincidence. Luck is perceived when an event implies the escape from negative consequences, or the achievement of something that is important and difficult. The distinction between chance and luck can explain why people are trapped by the illusion of control, even when it is clear that they have no influence on the physical causation determining the outcomes of events. They cannot change the outcome of the roulette wheel, but they can employ their luck, which helps them to place their bets on the winning number.     

Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.