THE FALSE PROMISES OF RISK ANALYSIS

The relatively new discipline of risk analysis promises to provide objective guidance in some of the most controversial issues in modern high-technology societies. Four conditions are discussed that must be satisfied for this promise to be fulfilled. Since none of these conditions is satisfied, risk analysis does not keep its promise. In its attempts to reduce genuinely political issues to technocratic calculations, it neglects many of the factors that should influence decisions on risk acceptance. A list of tentative guidelines is given for numerical decision support that encourages democratic decision-making instead of trying to evade it.     

Impulsivity in suicidal and nonsuicidal adolescents

Nonsuicidal and suicidal adolescent inpatients were compared to community high school students using behavioral measures of impulsivity. Measures of problem solving ability, hopelessness, and depression were also administered to all groups. The suicidal inpatients were characterized by greater impulsivity, hopelessness, and depression than both nonsuicidal inpatients and community high school students. There were no differences in problemsolving abilities found between the suicidal inpatients and either the nonsuicidal inpatients or the community controls.     

From the casino to the jungle

Clear-cut cases of decision-making under risk (known probabilities) are unusual in real life. The gambler’s decisions at the roulette table are as close as we can get to this type of decision-making. In contrast, decision-making under uncertainty (unknown probabilities) can be exemplified by a decision whether to enter a jungle that may contain unknown dangers. Life is usually more like an expedition into an unknown jungle than a visit to the casino. Nevertheless, it is common in decision-supporting disciplines to proceed as if reasonably reliable probability estimates were available for all possible outcomes, i.e. as if the prevailing epistemic conditions were analogous to those of gambling at the roulette table. This mistake can be called the tuxedo fallacy. It is argued that traditional engineering practices such as safety factors and multiple safety barriers avoid this fallacy and that they therefore manage uncertainty better than probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). PRA is a useful tool, but it must be supplemented with other methods in order not to limit the analysis to dangers that can be assigned meaningful probability estimates.     

Counteractive Self-Control

ABSTRACT— We propose a self-control analysis of the role of availability in valuation. We explored the hypothesis that, when temptation becomes available, counteractive self-control processes render it less valuable. We found evidence for devaluation of available temptation among gym users before they choose to forgo an unhealthy snack rather than after they make their choice (Study 1), and among students evaluating leisure activities when their decision to enroll in an uninteresting class is reversible rather than irreversible (Study 2).     

The Rôle of Language In Belief Revision

Analytical tools that give precision to the concept of "independence of syntax" are developed in the form of a series of substitutivity principles. These principles are applied in a study of the rôle of language in belief revision theory. It is shown that sets of sentences can be used in models of belief revision to convey more information than what is conveyed by the combined propositional contents of the respective sets. It is argued that it would be unwise to programmatically restrain the use of sets of sentences to that of representing propositional contents. Instead, the expressive power of language should be used as fully as possible. Therefore, syntax-independence should not be seen as a criterion of adequacy for language-based models of information-processing, but rather as a property that emerges from some but not all the idealization processes through which such models are constructed.     

Neuropsychological test norms controlled for physical health: Does it matter?

The objective of the present study was to investigate the effects of physical health on neuropsychological test norms. Medical and neuropsychological data from 118 healthy volunteer controls, aged 26–91 years, were collected during five recruitment occasions. The examinations included a clinical investigation, brain neuroimaging, and a comprehensive neuropsychological test battery. Test‐specific statistical regression‐weights for age, education and gender were calculated to establish preliminary test norms. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that control in addition for physical health moved best performance from age 60 to 65 for abstraction; replaced a plateau above age 70 for verbal fluency, with a continued rise in performance; eliminated significant negative influences of age on auditory learning, spatial reasoning and complex copying; reduced them on wordlist recall, psychomotor speed, visual scanning and mental shifting; and slightly reduced negative influences of low education on most verbal tests, several memory tests, and psychomotor speed, indicating rises in normative scores of up to 0.8 SD at age 80 and 0.4 SD at age 60. No differences were found at age 40. Although the sample size is not adequate to be used for normative data, the findings indicate that norms uncontrolled for health overestimate the negative influence of advanced age and low education, implying a risk of drawing false diagnostic conclusions.     

Psychological Empowerment Among Urban Youth: Measurement Model and Associations with Youth Outcomes

Empowerment‐based strategies have become widely used method to address health inequities and promote social change. Few researchers, however, have tested theoretical models of empowerment, including multidimensional, higher‐order models. We test empirically a multidimensional, higher‐order model of psychological empowerment (PE), guided by Zimmerman's conceptual framework including three components of PE: intrapersonal, interactional, and behavioral. We also investigate if PE is associated with positive and negative outcomes among youth. The sample included 367 middle school youth aged 11–16 (M = 12.71; SD = 0.91); 60% female, 32% (n = 117) white youth, 46% (n = 170) African‐American youth, and 22% (n = 80) identifying as mixed race, Asian‐American, Latino, Native American, or other ethnic/racial group; schools reported 61–75% free/reduced lunch students. Our results indicated that each of the latent factors for the three PE components demonstrate a good fit with the data. Our results also indicated that these components loaded on to a higher‐order PE factor (X² = 32.68; df: 22; p = .07; RMSEA: 0.04; 95% CI: .00, .06; CFI: 0.99). We found that the second‐order PE factor was negatively associated with aggressive behavior and positively associated with prosocial engagement. Our results suggest that empowerment‐focused programs would benefit from incorporating components addressing how youth think about themselves in relation to their social contexts (intrapersonal), understanding social and material resources needed to achieve specific goals (interactional), and actions taken to influence outcomes (behavioral). Our results also suggest that integrating the three components and promoting PE may help increase likelihood of positive behaviors (e.g., prosocial involvement); we did not find an association between PE and aggressive behavior. Implications and future directions for empowerment research are discussed.