Improving judgmental forecasts with judgmental bootstrapping and task feedback support

This study examines the utility of two widely advocated methods for supporting judgmental forecasts—providing task feedback and providing judgmental bootstrapping support. In a simulated laboratory based experiment that focused on producing composite sales forecasts from three individual components, we compared the effectiveness of these two methods in improving final judgmental forecasts. In the presence of cognitive feedback task, feedback led to better forecasts than providing judgmental bootstrap forecasts. Simply providing bootstrap forecasts was of no additional benefit over a control condition. This was true in terms of the Brunswik Lens model measures of achievement, knowledge, and consistency, and in terms of forecast accuracy. This occurred both in stable environments and when special events (unusual one‐time events requiring adjustments to the forecasts) arose. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is risky sexual behavior continuous or categorical? A taxometric analysis of the Sexual Risk Survey

Risky sexual behaviors are behaviors that involve the possibility of an adverse outcome, such as contracting a sexually transmitted infection or unwanted pregnancy. The question of whether risky sexual behavior exists as a discrete class (i.e., taxon) or as a dimensional construct has not previously been explored. The authors performed a set of taxometric analyses on 4 factor scales derived from the Sexual Risk Survey (Turchik & Garske, 2009) with data from 1,103 college students. The results provided consistent support for a dimensional latent structure in which variations in reported risky sexual behavior reflect differences in degree and not differences in kind. The implications of these findings for the assessment of risky sexual behavior are discussed.     

Dissecting the genetic architecture of human personality

The first candidate gene studies of human personality promised much but, in the fifteen years since their publication, have delivered little in the way of clear evidence for the contribution of specific genetic variants to observed variation in personality traits. This is most likely due to the very small effects conferred by individual loci. The advent of genome-wide association studies has brought growing awareness that high levels of statistical stringency, very large sample sizes, and independent replication will be minimum requirements for future genetic studies of personality. At the same time, evidence from other fields indicates that the genetic architecture of personality is likely to consist of the combined effect of many hundreds, if not thousands, of small effect loci.     

The relation between action, predictability and temporal contiguity in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented a subjective temporal attraction between actions and their effects. This finding, named intentional binding, is thought to be the result of a cognitive function that links actions to their consequences. Although several studies have tried to outline the necessary and sufficient conditions for intentional binding, a quantitative comparison between the roles of temporal contiguity, predictability and voluntary action and the evaluation of their interactions is difficult due to the high variability of the temporal binding measurements. In the present study, we used a novel methodology to investigate the properties of intentional binding. Subjects judged whether an auditory stimulus, which could either be triggered by a voluntary finger lift or be presented after a visual temporal marker unrelated to any action, was presented synchronously with a reference stimulus. In three experiments, the predictability, the interval between action and consequence and the presence of action itself were manipulated. The results indicate that (1) action is a necessary condition for temporal binding; (2) a fixed interval between the two events is not sufficient to cause the effect and (3) only in the presence of voluntary action do temporal predictability and contiguity play a significant role in modulating the effect.These findings are discussed in the context of the relationship between intentional binding and temporal expectation.     

The therapeutic alliance in adolescent substance abuse treatment: a one-with-many analysis

Studies of the therapeutic alliance typically use a one-with-many (OWM) design in which each therapist (the one) treats multiple clients (the many). This study used Kenny, Kashy, and Cook's (2006) OWM method to examine the composition of the therapeutic alliance and to analyze the association between alliance and outcome in a sample of 398 adolescents treated for substance abuse by 14 therapists. Both the client and therapist alliance ratings yielded large relationship variances, with limited consensus among clients treated by the same therapist about the quality of the alliance. If a client reported an especially strong alliance with his or her therapist, the therapist was likely to also report an especially strong alliance with that client (dyadic reciprocity). The association between the components of the alliance and treatment outcome was complicated, with different levels of measurement and different components of the alliance (perceiver, partner, or relationship) derived from different informants (therapist or client) relating to different outcomes.     

The role of expectation and probabilistic learning in auditory boundary perception: a model comparison

Grouping and boundary perception are central to many aspects of sensory processing in cognition. We present a comparative study of recently published computational models of boundary perception in music. In doing so, we make three contributions. First, we hypothesise a relationship between expectation and grouping in auditory perception, and introduce a novel information-theoretic model of perceptual segmentation to test the hypothesis. Although we apply the model to musical melody, it is applicable in principle to sequential grouping in other areas of cognition. Second, we address a methodological consideration in the analysis of ambiguous stimuli that produce different percepts between individuals. We propose and demonstrate a solution to this problem, based on clustering of participants prior to analysis. Third, we conduct the first comparative analysis of probabilistic-learning and rule-based models of perceptual grouping in music. In spite of having only unsupervised exposure to music, the model performs comparably to rule-based models based on expert musical knowledge, supporting a role for probabilistic learning in perceptual segmentation of music.     

On the Observability of Purely Behavioral Sunk-Cost Effects: Theoretical and Empirical Support for the BISC Model

There is growing interest in whether and how sunk-cost effects for purely behavioral investments occur. In this article, we further discuss Cunha and Caldieraro's (2009) Behavioral Investment Sunk Cost (BISC) model and reconcile Otto's (2010) results with the BISC model predictions. We also report new data from two unpublished experiments that are consistent with the BISC model, and we discuss the conditions under which purely behavioral sunk-cost effects are likely to be observed.     

Non‐Relativist Contextualism about Free Will

Abstract: Contextualist accounts of free will recently proposed by Hawthorne and Rieber imply that the same action can be both free and unfree (depending on the attributor's context). This paradoxical consequence can be avoided by thinking of contexts not as constituted by arbitrary moves in a conversation, but rather by (relatively stable) social practices (such as the practices of attributing responsibility or of giving scientific explanations). The following two conditions are suggested as each necessary and jointly sufficient for free will: (i) the agent is able to form considered practical judgements and to act accordingly, and (ii) the agent (or some agent‐involving event) is the original cause of her actions. A contextualist reformulation of the second condition is developed according to which only contexts in which responsibility is attributed are relevant for the kind of original causation required for free will, which allows for a non‐relativist contextualism about free will.