Examining the trade‐off between confidence and optimism in future forecasts

Confident business forecasters are seen as more credible and competent (“confidence heuristic”). We explored a boundary condition of this effect by examining how individuals react to the trade‐off between confidence and optimism. Using hypothetical scenarios, we examined this trade‐off from the perspectives of judges (i.e., business owners who hired analysts to make sales predictions) and forecasters (i.e., the analysts hired to make predictions). Participants were assigned to the role of either judges or forecasters and were asked to rate 2 potential forecasts. In the “no trade‐off” condition, the 2 forecasts were aligned in optimism and confidence (the more confident forecast was also more optimistic); in the “trade‐off” condition, the more confident forecast was less optimistic. In Experiment 1, judges were more likely to positively evaluate confident forecasters when confident forecasters were the more (vs. less) optimistic ones. Experiment 2 demonstrated that forecasters were aware of judges' preferences for optimism and strategically relied on methods that resulted in more optimistic (but less reliable) predictions. Experiment 3 directly compared the perspectives of judges and forecasters, revealing that forecasters overestimated judges' preferences for optimism over confidence. The present studies show that forecasters and judges have different views of the trade‐off between confidence and optimism and that forecasters may unnecessarily sacrifice accuracy for optimism.     

Parenting practices and adolescent social anxiety: A direct or indirect relationship?

Background/ObjectivesAccording to existing evidence, parental educational practices and social anxiety are to some degree connected. However, the possibility that this relationship is an indirect one and is mediated by individual factors such as self-esteem or emotional regulation has not yet been explored. The aim of this study was therefore to explore the relationship between maternal and paternal educational practices and social anxiety, and test both the direct and the indirect pathways. Method: The representative sample consisted of 2,060 Andalusian students (47.7% girls, M_age = 14.34) who filled in various self-reports. Results: The structural equation models confirmed that a direct relationship, with a low effect size, exists between parental educational practices and social anxiety and that there is also an indirect relationship, mediated by negative self-esteem and emotional suppression (the emotional regulation strategy), which accounted here for 49.1% of the variance in social anxiety. Conclusions: Parental education practices seem to act as a family asset which either promotes or hinders the development of basic attitudes and competencies such as self-esteem or emotional regulation and, by doing this, either encourages or prevents the emergence of problems such as social anxiety.     

A LACANIAN LOOK AT ENGLISH ELEGANCE: SOME REFLECTIONS ON IAN MCEWAN'S ENDURING LOVE

This paper makes use of certain thought-provoking ideas from Lacan's seminars in the years between 1959 and 1962 in order to engage with the very subtly conveyed inner drama that subtends the plot of Ian McEwan's novel Enduring Love . Freud, in his 1914 paper 'On narcissism', had referred to theories on the earliest moments of subjectivity as 'nebulous, scarcely imagined concepts'. In 1959 Lacan created a concept that he called the o-object to make incursions into theories on the lasting impact of the anxiety-ridden passage of the small pre-subject into subjective existence. In particular, the seminar on Anxiety (1962-3), for all the convolutions of syntax and sense that render it so difficult to read, opens up reflections on this topic that are not dissimilar to those stimulated by McEwan's accomplished prose. Both Lacan and McEwan explore the problematic dissolution of the everyday distinction between subjectivity and objectivity attendant on the upsurge of anxiety driven by unconscious forces.     

Let's Ask the Homeless People Themselves: A Needs Assessment Based on a Probability Sample of Adults

A probability sample of 301 homeless adults from Buffalo, NY, was followed over 6 months to document the utilization of a variety of community services, examine services desired, and identify factors associated with service utilization, preference, and satisfaction. The following needs were all rated as at least equally important as the need for affordable housing: safety, education, transportation, medical/dental treatment, and job training/placement (most of these needs were also rated as difficult to obtain). Needs for formal mental health and substance abuse services were rated as relatively unimportant and easy to obtain, and for those who actually used them, respondents were often dissatisfied with them. Of 16 predictor variables examined in multivariate analyses, several showed consistent relationships with subsequent service use, preference, and satisfaction. Younger adults, persons of color, those with dependent children, and persons having fewer social supports reported less service utilization, less satisfaction with services received, different perceived needs for particular services, and/or greater difficulty obtaining services.     

Job security and job satisfaction among Greek fitness instructors

In analyzing the relation between job satisfaction and job security, a sample of 97 Greek fitness instructors, 18 to 42 years of age, showed statistically significant positive correlations between job security and job satisfaction (p<.002). Particularly, job security was correlated with pay .54, promotion .43, job itself .41, and the organization as a whole .43.     

Social connectedness as a source and consequence of meaning in life

Multiple studies have shown that the sense of belonging and connectedness contribute to meaning in life, but does meaning also influence social connectedness? The present research examines the reciprocal relationships between meaning and different types of connectedness: intimate, relational, and collective. Analyzing data from a nationally representative longitudinal study (Study 1) with cross-lagged panel models, we found that only collective connectedness was prospectively associated with meaning, whereas meaning was prospectively associated with all three types of connectedness, controlling for life satisfaction. The beneficial effect of meaning extended to behavioral indicators of collective and intimate connectedness (Study 2). Higher levels of meaning in life were prospectively associated with an increased likelihood of joining voluntary associations and getting married, and, for people high in marital satisfaction, with a decreased likelihood of marital separation. Together, these findings suggest that the relationship between social connectedness and meaning in life is bidirectional.     

Human Rights and Religion: A Sociological Perspective

This essay aims to review mainstream literature and research perspectives on the sociology of human rights with the further focus on relationship between human rights and religion. We consider the challenges of late engagement of sociology with human rights and current narratives of the relationship of human rights and religion that encompass normativity as the central category of historically oriented sociology. We discuss the contribution of two empirical research mainstreams on human rights and religion and focus on a new field of study—sociology of religious freedom. A detailed new agenda for sociological research on human rights and religion is explored in the final part of our assessment.