Reducing cognitive biases in probabilistic reasoning by the use of logarithm formats

Research on probability judgment has traditionally emphasized that people are susceptible to biases because they rely on “variable substitution”: the assessment of normative variables is replaced by assessment of heuristic, subjective variables. A recent proposal is that many of these biases may rather derive from constraints on cognitive integration, where the capacity-limited and sequential nature of controlled judgment promotes linear additive integration, in contrast to many integration rules of probability theory (Juslin, Nilsson, & Winman, 2009). A key implication by this theory is that it should be possible to improve peoples’ probabilistic reasoning by changing probability problems into logarithm formats that require additive rather than multiplicative integration. Three experiments demonstrate that recasting tasks in a way that allows people to arrive at the answers by additive integration decreases cognitive biases, and while people can rapidly learn to produce the correct answers in an additive formats, they have great difficulty doing so with a multiplicative format.     

Trends in timing of sleep in the general population of Norway: 1980 to 20001

The aim of the current study was to examine whether the timing of sleep have changed over the last two decades. As part of a general survey of activities throughout the 24-hr. cycle, collected in 1980, 1990, and 2000 by Statistics Norway, information on sleep timing was obtained for every 15-min. interval for 1 wk. All three samples were representative of Norwegians. The age span was from 16 to 74 years. Timing of sleep was significantly delayed in 2000 compared to 1990 and especially so in 1980, but with no change in total amount of sleep. From 1980 to 2000, there was an increasing discrepancy in sleep or wake timing between weekdays and weekends. The current analyses show that people sleep as much as before but do so at different times. The increased discrepancy between weekdays and weekends indicates that overall sleep habits are poorer now than previously.     

A self-help book is better than sleep hygiene advice for insomnia: a randomized controlled comparative study

The objective was to compare the effects of two types of written material for insomnia in a randomized trial with follow-up after three months. Insomniacs were recruited through newspaper advertisements to a web-based survey with validated questionnaires about sleep, anxiety, depression, and use of sleep medications. A self-help book focusing on cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia was compared to standard sleep hygiene advice; 77 and 78 participants were randomized to self-help book or sleep hygiene advice, respectively. The response rate was 81.9%. The self-help book gave significantly better scores on the sleep questionnaires compared to sleep hygiene advice. The proportion using sleep medications was reduced in the self-help book group, whereas it was increased in the sleep hygiene group. Compared to pre-treatment, the self-help book improved scores on the sleep (effect sizes 0.61-0.62) and depression (effect size 0.18) scales, whereas the sleep hygiene advice improved scores on some sleep scales (effect sizes 0.24-0.28), but worsened another (effect size -0.36). In addition, sleep hygiene advice increased the number of days per week where they took sleep medications (effect size -0.50). To conclude, in this randomized controlled trial, the self-help book improved sleep and reduced the proportion using sleep medications compared to sleep hygiene advice. The self-help book is an efficient low-threshold intervention, which is cheap and easily available for patients suffering from insomnia. Sleep hygiene advice also improved sleep at follow-up, but increased sleep medication use. Thus, caution is warranted when sleep hygiene advice are given as a single treatment.     

Ambivalent sexism: a tool for understanding and improving gender relations in organizations

This study tested predictions regarding ambivalent sexism, previously studied cross-culturally, here "within-culturally", between groups from different organizational settings. Based on three samples (334 adults in general, 744 industrial employees, and 189 high school students), completing a Swedish version of the Ambivalent Sexism Inventory (ASI), the results revealed that men scored higher on hostile and benevolent sexism than women, and high school students scored higher than both adult samples on both forms of sexism. The results generally confirmed the predictions; the gender gap in benevolent sexism decreased as a function of increasing levels of general sexism and the correlation between hostile and benevolent sexism decreased with higher levels of general sexism. In fact, the groups scoring highest on general sexism displayed significant negative correlations indicating a polarized ideology of women among these groups. Implications, both theoretical and practical, derived from these results are discussed.     

Changes in driver celeration behaviour over time: Do drivers learn from collisions?

Although it is well known that drivers’ accident risk changes with experience, it has never been specified exactly how this comes about in terms of changes of behaviour, or what features of their experiences are important for this change. One possibility is that drivers learn from their collision involvement, and change their behaviour after such events, as some studies indicate. However, relative accident involvement tends to be very stable over time, which indicates the opposite. Repeated measurements of celeration (speed change) behaviour of bus drivers were compared between two groups; drivers without accidents within the measurement period (about 3 years), and drivers with at least one crash. For the crash group, there was a steady decline in their celeration values over time, but this was not related to their crashes. A similar reduction was also present for the non-crash sample. The results would seem to be in agreement with the theory of accident proneness; there exist stability in driver behaviour over time, despite accident involvement. However, this stability is relative within the sample, and not absolute. The reduction in celeration values for both groups over time would seem to indicate that drivers learn from their experiences in general, but not specifically from accidents. The present study seems to indicate that daily experience of driving situations is the strongest factor for changes in driving behaviour.     

The prospective relationship between role stressors and new cases of self‐reported workplace bullying

In line with the “Work environment hypothesis,” role stressors have been proposed as important antecedents of bullying in the workplace. Only a few longitudinal studies on the relationship between role stressors and bullying exist, however, and earlier studies have largely been cross‐sectional. The aim of the present prospective study was to determine whether role stressors at baseline predict new cases of workplace bullying at follow‐up. A total of 2,835 Norwegian employees participated at both baseline and follow‐up, with an interval of two years between the measurements. The study supports the hypotheses that role ambiguity and role conflict, independently, contribute to subsequent new reports of workplace bullying. However, there was a weak reverse effect: reporting being bullied at work at baseline predicted reporting increased levels of role ambiguity and role conflict at follow‐up. Even though the results may indicate a circular relationship between the variables at hand, the weak reverse relationship seems to have little practical impact compared to the stronger relationship from role stressors to bullying. Hence, the results mainly support the hypotheses stating that role ambiguity and role conflict, independently, predict subsequent exposure to workplace bullying.     

Spontaneous Sourcing Among Students Reading Multiple Documents

This study used think-aloud methodology to explore undergraduates' spontaneous attention to and use of source information while reading six documents that presented conflicting views on a controversial social scientific issue in a Google-like environment. Results showed that students explicitly and implicitly paid attention to sources of documents as well as sources cited within documents and that their attention to source information was associated with its use in evaluating, predicting, and interpreting the content of the documents. Students' sourcing activity varied across documents. The two documents that took the strongest, opposing stances on the controversy elicited the most sourcing. We also observed that, in essays they wrote on the controversy, students' spontaneous sourcing activity was related to their citation of a particularly trustworthy source. The study's theoretical implications are discussed in terms of the Documents Model framework.     

Concepts and Intuitions: Adorno After the Linguistic Turn

Adorno's conception of conceptually articulated experience can be defended and made fruitful for a critical philosophy after the so-called linguistic turn. The aim is both to answer the criticisms raised by Jürgen Habermas and others that Adorno's philosophy remains bound by the premises of a subject-centred philosophy, and to criticize social-pragmatism from the vantage-point of Adorno's philosophy of language. It is shown that Adorno is committed to a picture of experience very much in line with the recent views of John McDowell, which extends the space of reasons beyond the space of concepts. Further, it is shown that non-inferential justification can be combined with an expressivist picture of judgment. Finally, it is argued that what is called the extended space of reasons is ultimately social; that representation, the aboutness of thought, serves expressive roles in a socially articulated space of reason-giving. The advantage of Adorno's position vis-à-vis a one-sided social-pragmatism consists in his defence of what is called subjective-material proprieties of judgment. Adorno's idea that the extended space of reasons implies the acknowledgement of what he refers to as the non-identical within conceptually articulated experience is thus reconstructed and defended. Such non-identity, it is claimed, is exhibited in successful art-works which thereby ought to be counted as forms of reasoning. On this basis, Adorno's philosophy acquires critical and normative significance after the linguistic turn.     

Cognitive Complexity and Dissociative Identity Disorder

Thirteen patients with dissociative identity disorder (DID), 13 with other mental disorders, and 10 nondiagnosed comparison participants were given individual grids. Results showed that displaying alternate personalities did not portend a more multidimensional level of thinking. Instead, the nonclinical comparison group had the greater degree of complexity in comparison to both clinical groups. A notable clinical observation was that DID patients, as compared to non-DID participants, had a greater understanding and speed in completing the grid. Findings are discussed in terms of the advantages of personal construct theory for conceptualizing the construct of dissociation.     

New Beginnings–an experience-based programme addressing the attachment relationship between mothers and their babies in prisons

Data about the quality of attachment between infants and parents in high-risk populations suggests that early intervention may be advantageous for positive developmental outcomes for the child. Mothers in prison represent a high-risk parenting population in terms of both attachment histories and economic and social risk factors. New Beginnings was constructed as a short term, experience-based programme for mothers and infants in the Mother and Baby Units of two UK women's prisons. It is based on the early intervention model developed at the Anna Freud Centre. The programme was piloted in 2004–5, with 27 participating dyads. This paper presents an overview of the pilot stage. Our aim is to introduce the thinking that went into the programme and to present initial observations concerning the effect of the programme. We describe the development of a framework for the programme and its preliminary evaluation using pre- and post-interview protocols concerning the mothers' thoughts and feelings about their babies. We used the Parent Development Interview, for both a qualitative analysis of the major themes in connection to child rearing and quantitative measures of reflective capacity in relation to the child on the part of mother-participants.