Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.     

Psychodynamische Zusammenh?nge zwischen Psychose und Lebensgeschichte

Using two cases as examples it is shown how psychotic experiences and behaviour are psychodynamically associated with the biography of affected patients and can be beneficially used in therapy. Based on the historic pioneer work of Sigmund Freud who, with his psychoanalytical interpretation of Daniel Paul Schreber??s autobiography Memoirs of my nervous illness (Denkwürdigkeiten eines Nervenkranken) from 1903 shortly after his death 100 years ago, was the first to attempt to construct an association between Schreber??s delusional symptoms and his past history, this approach will be extensively discussed for patients with schizophrenia and similar psychoses. Particular attention is paid to trigger situations for the occurrence of psychotic conditions and the interpretation of certain delusional symptoms with respect to conflictual subjects from the past. In patients suffering from monopolar or bipolar affective disorders or psychoses, the symptoms are generally less exaggerated and extravagant than in schizophrenic psychoses. However, in such cases it can also be beneficial for the therapy in depressive or manic episodes to follow up the long-lasting conflicts which existed prior to the psychosis, where they either experience an escalation or describe an attempt to free themselves from previous pathogenic settings.     

When promoting a charity can hurt charitable giving: A metacognitive analysis

Charities need to come to mind to enter a potential donor's consideration set. However, feeling familiar with a charity and its cause can facilitate or impair giving. In most cases, perceived good memory for details of the cause fosters the impression of personal importance, which increases giving (Studies 1 and 3). But when the charity aims to increase awareness of a cause, good memory for the cause suggests that awareness is already high, which impairs giving (Studies 2 and 3). Hence, promotions for awareness-raising charities can actually have negative consequences, confirming the predictions of a metacognitive analysis.     

Perceptual training methods compared: the relative efficacy of different approaches to enhancing sport-specific anticipation

The comparative efficacy of different perceptual training approaches for the improvement of anticipation was examined using a goalkeeping task from European handball that required the rapid prediction of shot direction. Novice participants (N = 60) were assigned equally to four different training groups and two different control groups (a placebo group and a group who undertook no training). The training groups received either (i) explicit rules to guide anticipation; (ii) direction as to the location of the key anticipatory cues provided either just verbally (verbal cueing) or supplemented with color highlighting (color cueing); or (iii) undertook a matching judgment task to encourage implicit learning. Performance of the groups was compared on an anticipation test administered before training, after the training intervention, under a condition involving evaluative stress, and after a 5-month retention period. The explicit learning, verbal cueing, and implicit learning conditions provided the greatest sustained improvements in performance whereas the group given color cueing performed no better than the control groups. Only the implicit learning group showed performance superior to the control groups under the stress situation. The verbal cueing, color cueing, and implicit learning groups formulated the lowest number of explicit rules related to the critical shoulder cue although the reported use of general cues and rules based on all cues did not differ between any of the groups. Anticipation can be improved through a variety of different perceptual training approaches with the relative efficacy of the different approaches being contingent upon both the time scale and conditions under which learning is assessed.     

Does internet-based prevention reduce the risk of relapse for anorexia nervosa?

Technological advancements allow new approaches to psychotherapy via electronic media. The eating disorder literature currently contains no studies on internet intervention in anorexia nervosa (AN). This study presents a RCT on an internet-based relapse prevention program (RP) over nine months after inpatient treatment for AN. The sample comprised 258 women, randomized to the RP or treatment as usual (TAU). Expert- and self-ratings were evaluated by intent-to-treat analyses. Concerning age, age at onset and comorbidity, both groups were comparable at randomization. During the RP, the intervention group gained weight while the TAU group had minimal weight loss. RP completers gained significantly more body weight than patients in the TAU condition. Group-by-time comparisons for eating-related cognitions and behaviors and general psychopathology showed a significantly more favorable course in the RP program for "sexual anxieties" and "bulimic symptoms" (interview), and "maturity fears" and "social insecurity" (EDI-2). General psychopathology showed no significant group-by-time interaction. Important factors for successful relapse prevention were adherence to the intervention protocol and increased spontaneity. Considering the unfavorable course and chronicity of anorexia nervosa (AN), internet-based relapse prevention in AN following inpatient treatment appears a promising approach. Future internet-based programs may be further improved and enhanced.     

On the advantage of being left-handed in volleyball: further evidence of the specificity of skilled visual perception

High ball speeds and close distances between competitors require athletes in interactive sports to correctly anticipate an opponent's intentions in order to render appropriate reactions. Although it is considered crucial for successful performance, such skill appears impaired when athletes are confronted with a left-handed opponent, possibly because of athletes' reduced perceptual familiarity with rarely encountered left-handed actions. To test this negative perceptual frequency effect hypothesis, we invited 18 skilled and 18 novice volleyball players to predict shot directions of left- and right-handed attacks in a video-based visual anticipation task. In accordance with our predictions, and with recent reports on laterality differences in visual perception, the outcome of left-handed actions was significantly less accurately predicted than the outcome of right-handed attacks. In addition, this left-right bias was most distinct when predictions had to be based on preimpact (i.e., before hand-ball contact) kinematic cues, and skilled players were generally more affected by the opponents' handedness than were novices. The study's findings corroborate the assumption that skilled visual perception is attuned to more frequently encountered actions.     

Zur Phänomenologie islamistisch-terroristischer Straftäter

Very little reliable information is currently known about the individual background of terrorist offences. The few empirical studies available are as a rule based on a consideration of the social statistical characteristics without reference to personality or psychopathological diagnostic findings. The present article is based on 40 expert opinions which were given by the author on a total of 29 subjects in the years 2000–2013. All subjects had committed crimes motivated by Islamic beliefs of which 23 could be explored and investigated in detail. Although the offenders included in this study consisted mainly of immigrants to Germany, in recent years a group of young offenders has crystallized, even in this sample of subjects, who were born and grew up in Germany. In the “immigrant” group (n?=?19) no psychopathological traits were detected and also only few ego-syntonic offenders who acted on convictions. In fact, these subjects were more a series of primarily conspicuously dissocial offenders and subjects who had failed to cope with their way of life or with their aims in life. Of the young Moslems who grew up in Germany (n?=?10) three subjects suffered from a schizophrenic psychosis and two had a primarily dissocial psychosis. Among the other subjects there were some special features in the developmental background, especially in the area of identity crises but without any noticeable uniform background pattern for a personality development to an Islamic offender.