Inferring Others' Hidden Thoughts: Smart Guesses in a Low Diagnostic World

People are biased toward believing that what others say is what they truly think. This effect, known as the truth bias, has often been characterized as a judgmental error that impedes accuracy. We consider an alternative view: that it reflects the use of contextual information to make the best guess when the currently available information has low diagnosticity. Participants learnt the diagnostic value of four cues, which were present during truthful statements between 20% and 80% of the time. Afterwards, participants were given contextual information: either that most people would lie or that most would tell the truth. We found that people were biased in the direction of the context information when the individuating behavioral cues were nondiagnostic. As the individuating cues became more diagnostic, context had less to no effect. We conclude that more general context information is used to make an informed judgment when other individuating cues are absent. That is, the truth bias reflects a smart guess in a low diagnostic world. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Symbiosis of Science and Religion: A Jewish Perspective

Three theses are explored, the first two historical and the third philosophical-theological: (1) throughout most of the history ofWestern civilization, science and religion have been closely connected with each other, and each has benefited from the connection; (2) the belief that science and religion have always been in conflict is not based on the actual history of either set of institutions; and (3) structurally a relationship between the two institutions is in the interest of both. By religion here I mean specifically, but not exclusively, Judaism.     

Implementation Intentions and Facilitation of Prospective Memory

Forming detailed implementation intentions for a future behavior can increase the probability that the behavior is actually completed. We investigated whether this intention effect could be used to improve prospective memory in older adults. As expected, participants who formed an implementation intention were more than twice as likely to self-initiate the intended behavior (writing down the day of the week on every sheet of paper received during the experiment) compared with participants who either were merely instructed to do so or actively rehearsed the instruction. Forming an implementation intention, however, did not improve performance on a task that required a response to salient cues. We conclude that detailed implementation intentions facilitate prospective memory on tasks that lack salient cues and require self-initiation.     

Exceptions to the Rule: The Effects of Remorse,Status, and Gender on Decision Making1

One of several general rules suggested by past work is that it is advantageous to exhibit remorse when one has committed a transgression. A pair of experiments searched for the boundary conditions of this rule. In Experiment 1, mock jurors rated a remorseful defendant as more guilty when the law was fair than when the law was unfair. In contrast, an unremorseful defendant was viewed as equally guilty under both fairness levels. Study 2 conceptually replicated this result, and revealed a 3‐way interaction among remorse, status, and gender. It is argued that these findings illustrate the importance of violation of expectations on evaluation and judgment, inside the courtroom and elsewhere.     

Visual and Auditory Message Framing Effects on Tobacco Smoking1

Persuasive health messages can be framed to emphasize the benefits of adopting a health behavior (gains) or the risks of not adopting it (losses). This study examined the effects of message framing on beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors relevant to cigarette smoking. In video presentations about tobacco smoking, visual images and auditory voiceover content were framed either as gains or losses, yielding 4 message conditions. Undergraduates (N= 437) attending a public university in New England were assigned randomly to view one of these messages. Gain‐framed messages about smoking in visual and auditory modalities shifted smoking‐related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors in the direction of avoidance and cessation. Health‐communication experts, when promoting prevention behaviors like smoking avoidance or cessation, may wish to diverge from the tradition of using loss‐framed messages and fear appeals in this domain, and instead consider using gain‐framed appeals that present the advantages of not smoking.     

Attribution of Arousal as a Mediator of the Effectiveness of Fear-Arousing Communications1

Before watching a fear-arousing antismoking movie, male smokers were administered a placebo pill that was said to have either arousing, tranquilizing, or no side effects. Subjects reported less intention to reduce smoking when they could attribute their arousal to the presumably arousing pill, and greater intention to do so when they expected the pill to be tranquilizing, than when they expccted no side effects. The self-reported number of cigarettes smoked during a two-week period following the experiment decreased in both the tranquilizing and no side-effects conditions, but not in the arousing side-effects condition. The data on subjects' i]ntentions are consistent with predictions derived from Kelley's discounting and augmentation principles and demunstrate informational functions of affective states. Several explanations concerning the differences between intentions and behavior are discussed, and implications concerning strategies for behavior change are explored.     

Priming and communication: Social determinants of information use in judgments of life satisfaction

Two experiments examined the effects of answering a question about a specific component of life satisfaction on respondents' assessment of their overall satisfaction with life. The results suggest that the use of primed information in forming subsequent judgments is determined by Grice's conversational norms. In general, answering the specific question increases the accessibility of information relevant to that question. However, the effect that this has on the general judgment depends on the way in which the two questions are presented. When the two questions are merely placed in sequence without a conversational context, the answer to the subsequent general question is based in part on the primed specific information. As a result, the answer to the general question becomes similar to that for the specific question (i.e. assimilation). However, this does not occur when the two questions are placed in a communication context. Conversational rules dictate that communicators should be informative and should avoid redundancy in their answers. Therefore, when a specific and a general question are perceived as belonging to the same conversational context, the information on which the answer to the specific question was based is disregarded when answering the general one. This attenuates the assimilation effect. The conditions under which these different processes occur are identified and experimentally manipulated, and the implications of these findings for models of information use in judgment are discussed.     

Judgments of relationship satisfaction: Inter- and intraindividual comparisons as a function of questionnaire structure

Two experiments demonstrate that individuals use an interindividual comparison strategy to evaluate a specific life-domain if their attention is drawn to only one aspect of that domain, that has either positive or negative evaluative implications. If their attention is drawn to two aspects with opposite implications, however, an intraindividual strategy, based on the comparison of both aspects, is preferred. Whether one or two aspects bearing on a specific domain are salient is, among other conditions, a function of the number of aspects assessed in a questionnaire. Theoretical and methodological implications are discussed.     

Asking Difficult Questions: Task Complexity Increases the Impact of Response Alternatives

In providing behavioural frequency reports, respondents use the range of the response alternatives as a frame of reference, resulting in higher estimates on scales that offer high rather than low values. The present study demonstrates that the size of this effect increases with increasing question difficulty.