Counterfactual reasoning and the problem of selecting antecedent scenarios

A recent group of social scientists have argued that counterfactual questions play an essential role in their disciplines, and that it is possible to have rigorous methods to investigate them. Unfortunately, there has been little (if any) interaction between these social scientists and the philosophers who have long held that rigorous counterfactual reasoning is possible. In this paper, I hope to encourage some fresh thinking on both sides by creating new connections between them. I describe what I term “problem of selecting antecedent scenarios,” and show that this is an essential challenge in real-life counterfactual reasoning. Then, I demonstrate that the major extant theories of counterfactuals (especially the Lewis/Stalnaker theory and Igal Kvart’s rival account) are unable to solve this problem. I show that there are instances of real-life counterfactual reasoning in the social sciences that are counterexamples to both of these accounts. And finally, I develop a new theory of how to select antecedent scenarios that overcomes these difficulties, and so would be part of a more adequate theory of counterfactuals (and counterfactual reasoning).     

Longitudinal Test of Forgiveness and Perceived Forgiveness as Mediators between Religiosity and Marital Satisfaction in Long-Term Marital Relationships

Abstract

Substantial research has found relations between religiosity and martial satisfaction. More longitudinal studies are needed to understand the inner-workings of this relationship. Over a four-year period, dyadic data from 331 married couples was used to test the longitudinal mediating effects of spousal forgiveness and partners’ perceptions of spousal forgiveness between religiosity and marital satisfaction. Husbands’ religiosity was associated with increases in wives’ marital satisfaction but the measures of forgiveness were not significant mediators in this relationship. Wives’ religiosity was predictive of lower levels of wives’ perceptions of spousal forgiveness, which led to decreases in both wives’ and husbands’ marital satisfaction.     

Action-control beliefs and behaviors as predictors of change in adjustment across the transition to middle school

Abstract

We examined longitudinal changes in young adolescents’ (N=368) action-control beliefs, coping behaviors, and adjustment (i.e., positive and negative affect, depression, aggression) across the transition from elementary school to middle school. Results indicated greater inter-individual instability in adjustment during this transition than during the previous school year. Using ordinary least-squares (OLS) growth models to extract intra-individual change scores for each variable (i.e., slopes and intercepts), we conducted a series of stepwise regressions to determine which features of control beliefs and coping behaviors best predicted changes in adjustment across the transition to middle school. We found that negative coping behaviors (i.e., antisocial coping) consistently predicted negative changes in the adjustment variables (e.g., greater depression, more aggression), whereas positive beliefs and behaviors did not consistently predict changes in the adjustment variables.     

The Gettier Intuition from South America to Asia

Journal of Indian Council of Philosophical Research - This article examines whether people share the Gettier intuition (viz. that someone who has a true justified belief that p may nonetheless fail...     

Cross-cultural comparison of ADHD symptoms among Japanese and US university students

Problems related to attention, hyperactivity, and impulsiveness are known to impact social, academic, and vocational success. When the problems begin in childhood and lead to impaired functioning, the syndrome is identified as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Symptoms of the syndrome persist into adolescence and adulthood for many individuals, but less is known about characteristics of adults compared to children, especially adults attending university. Furthermore, there is little cross-national and cross-cultural research. This study compared DSM-IV-TR ADHD symptoms of US university students (N=271) to Japanese peers (N=712). Comparison of group means on a DSM-IV-TR-based checklist indicated that Japanese students reported more problems with inattention (and overall ADHD symptoms) but not hyperactive-impulsive symptoms. Although differences were statistically significant, effect sizes were small, indicating that for practical purposes, the students reported similar levels of symptoms. Japanese students reported higher rates of meeting or exceeding symptom counts that comprise diagnostic criteria for ADHD, but differences were quite small. Using DSM-IV-TR thresholds, 5.70% of US students and 6.27% of Japanese students reported enough symptoms to meet the cut-off for inattentive, hyperactive/impulsive, or combined type during childhood. With regard to recent problems, 2.66% of US students and 4.52% of Japanese students reported enough symptoms to meet the cut-off for one of the three subtypes. Comparisons using other methods of calculating rates are also provided. This research adds to the limited knowledge of ADHD symptoms in university students across countries and it supports the view that ADHD is not merely a cultural construct. This study is among the first to identify potential attention problems in Japanese university students.