Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

A Patient-Tailored Evidence-Based Approach for Developing Early Neuropsychological Training Programs in Addiction Settings

Neuropsychology Review - Substance use disorders (SUDs) are associated with impairments of cognitive functions, and cognitive training programs are thus rapidly developing in SUD treatment....     

Acquisition of joint attention by olive baboons gesturing toward humans

Animal Cognition - Joint attention is a core ability of human social cognition which broadly refers to the coordination of attention with both the presence and activity of social partners. In both...     

On the examination couch: the relationship between the egocentric perspective and the attentional focus

Determined by anatomical characteristics, the binocular visual field has an elliptical shape. Whereas the focus of attention – that area of the visual field in which objects can be consciously perceived – is significantly smaller, its shape is not necessarily dependent on the same factors. Indeed, it is yet unknown if the maximum extents of the attentional focus’ meridians are dimensionally stable or adapt to the egocentric perspective. In this study, we intended to measure the expansion up to which peripheral stimuli can still be perceived while participants were sitting and lying on the left and on the right body side. Results demonstrate that contrary to the visual field the maximum extents along the attentional focus’ meridians remain stable across different head positions with a greater horizontal than vertical alignment. This indicates that the expansion ratios of the meridians of the attentional focus are not dependent on the egocentric perspective. Rather, they appear stable in space and gravity-based. Findings are discussed in terms of our visual environment and current as well as alternative interpretations are weighed against each other.     

Where have all the (ape) gestures gone?

Comparative analysis of the gestural communication of our nearest animal relatives, the great apes, implies that humans should have the biological potential to produce and understand 60–70 gestures, by virtue of shared common descent. These gestures are used intentionally in apes to convey separate requests, rather than as referential items in syntactically structured signals. At present, no such legacy of shared gesture has been described in humans. We suggest that the fate of “ape gestures” in modern human communication is relevant to the debate regarding the evolution of language through a possible intermediate stage of gestural protolanguage.     

Using Sex-Related Alcohol Expectancies to Predict Condom Use Among a General Sample of Men and Women in the United States

Sex-related alcohol expectancies (SRAE) are known to moderate the relationship between alcohol use and risky sexual behavior in high risk populations; however, SRAEs have not been thoroughly explored in populations traditionally viewed at lower risk for HIV and/or STI. Participants (n = 649) were recruited through internet-based direct marketing in the United States. Predictors of SRAE vary by gender. Controlling for alcohol use and other predictors, age predicted condom use among women, and SRAE was correlated with condom use for men. Sexual health programming geared towards non-traditionally identified high-risk populations is necessary and provides unique opportunities to increase condom usage.     

Using Automated Learning Devices for Monkeys (ALDM) to study social networks

Social network analysis has become a prominent tool to study animal social life, and there is an increasing need to develop new systems to collect social information automatically, systematically, and reliably. Here we explore the use of a freely accessible Automated Learning Device for Monkeys (ALDM) to collect such social information on a group of 22 captive baboons (Papio papio). We compared the social network obtained from the co-presence of the baboons in ten ALDM testing booths to the social network obtained through standard behavioral observation techniques. The results show that the co-presence network accurately reflects the social organization of the group, and also indicate under which conditions the co-presence network is most informative. In particular, the best correlation between the two networks was obtained with a minimum of 40 days of computer records and for individuals with at least 500 records per day. We also show through random permutation tests that the observed correlations go beyond what would be observed by simple synchronous activity, to reflect a preferential choice of closely located testing booths. The use of automatized cognitive testing therefore presents a new way of obtaining a large and regular amount of social information that is necessary to develop social network analysis. It also opens the possibility of studying dynamic changes in network structure with time and in relation to the cognitive performance of individuals.     

Group and individual stereotype threat and identity management strategies: An investigation of rugby women

The aim of this study was to test the gender identification effect on the stereotype threat (ST) experience felt, and whether the individual or group ST experience influenced the identity management strategies. Ninety‐six French rugby women were asked to imagine a training situation in which they practiced rugby in the presence of men. Results showed that the group identification did not affect Individual or Group ST and that the more women feel an individual ST the more they assess men's ability positively, and the less they assesses women's ability positively and that the more they feel a group ST the more they assess the ability of women positively. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.     

The role of pain behaviour and family caregiver responses in the link between pain catastrophising and pain intensity: A moderated mediation model

Objectives: This study investigated the mediating role of pain behaviours in the association between pain catastrophising and pain intensity and explored the moderating role of family caregivers’ responses to pain in the link between pain behaviours and pain intensity.

Methods: The sample consisted of 154 chronic pain patients and their family caregivers. Patients completed questionnaires regarding pain intensity, pain catastrophising, pain behaviours and their caregivers’ responses to their pain. Family caregivers reported their responses to the patients’ pain.

Results: Pain catastrophising was associated with pain intensity (r = 0.37) and pain behaviours partly mediated this association. The positive association between pain behaviours and pain intensity was significant only if patients reported that their family caregivers showed high levels of solicitous (effect = .49) and distracting responses (effect = .58), and if caregivers reported to show high levels of solicitous responses (effect = .51). No support was found for negative responses as a moderator neither based on patients’ perception of negative responses nor based on caregivers’ perception of negative responses.

Conclusions: The findings are in line with the idea that family caregivers’ solicitous and distracting responses convey to patients that their condition is serious, which may reinforce patients’ pain and pain behaviours, especially in those who catastrophise.     

Child-Oriented or Parent-Oriented Focused Intervention: Which is the Better Way to Decrease Children’s Externalizing Behaviors?

Research has tried to identify risk factors that increase the likelihood of difficulties with externalizing behavior. The relations between individual or environmental factors and externalizing behavior have been especially documented. Child-oriented and parent-oriented interventions have been designed in order to decrease externalizing behavior in preschoolers. To date, however, research has largely been compartmentalized. It is therefore not known whether child-oriented or parent-oriented intervention is more effective in reducing externalizing behavior. The aim of the current study was to answer this question by comparing two 8-week child with two 8-week parent-oriented group programs sharing a common experimental design. This was done in a pseudo-randomized trial conducted with 73 3–6-year-old children displaying clinically relevant levels of externalizing behavior who were assigned to one of the four interventions and 20 control participants who were allocated to a waiting list. The results indicate that the four programs focusing on a specific target variable, i.e., social cognition, inhibition, parental self-efficacy beliefs, or parental verbal responsiveness, are all effective in reducing externalizing behavior among preschoolers. Their effectiveness was moderated neither by their orientation toward the child or the parent nor by their content, suggesting that several effective solutions exist to improve behavioral adaptation in preschoolers. A second important highlight of this study is that, thanks to comparable effect sizes, brief focused programs appear to be a reasonable alternative to long multimodal programs, and may be more cost-effective for children and their families.