Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.     

A Patient-Tailored Evidence-Based Approach for Developing Early Neuropsychological Training Programs in Addiction Settings

Neuropsychology Review - Substance use disorders (SUDs) are associated with impairments of cognitive functions, and cognitive training programs are thus rapidly developing in SUD treatment....     

Acquisition of joint attention by olive baboons gesturing toward humans

Animal Cognition - Joint attention is a core ability of human social cognition which broadly refers to the coordination of attention with both the presence and activity of social partners. In both...     

On the examination couch: the relationship between the egocentric perspective and the attentional focus

Determined by anatomical characteristics, the binocular visual field has an elliptical shape. Whereas the focus of attention – that area of the visual field in which objects can be consciously perceived – is significantly smaller, its shape is not necessarily dependent on the same factors. Indeed, it is yet unknown if the maximum extents of the attentional focus’ meridians are dimensionally stable or adapt to the egocentric perspective. In this study, we intended to measure the expansion up to which peripheral stimuli can still be perceived while participants were sitting and lying on the left and on the right body side. Results demonstrate that contrary to the visual field the maximum extents along the attentional focus’ meridians remain stable across different head positions with a greater horizontal than vertical alignment. This indicates that the expansion ratios of the meridians of the attentional focus are not dependent on the egocentric perspective. Rather, they appear stable in space and gravity-based. Findings are discussed in terms of our visual environment and current as well as alternative interpretations are weighed against each other.     

Where have all the (ape) gestures gone?

Comparative analysis of the gestural communication of our nearest animal relatives, the great apes, implies that humans should have the biological potential to produce and understand 60–70 gestures, by virtue of shared common descent. These gestures are used intentionally in apes to convey separate requests, rather than as referential items in syntactically structured signals. At present, no such legacy of shared gesture has been described in humans. We suggest that the fate of “ape gestures” in modern human communication is relevant to the debate regarding the evolution of language through a possible intermediate stage of gestural protolanguage.     

Using Automated Learning Devices for Monkeys (ALDM) to study social networks

Social network analysis has become a prominent tool to study animal social life, and there is an increasing need to develop new systems to collect social information automatically, systematically, and reliably. Here we explore the use of a freely accessible Automated Learning Device for Monkeys (ALDM) to collect such social information on a group of 22 captive baboons (Papio papio). We compared the social network obtained from the co-presence of the baboons in ten ALDM testing booths to the social network obtained through standard behavioral observation techniques. The results show that the co-presence network accurately reflects the social organization of the group, and also indicate under which conditions the co-presence network is most informative. In particular, the best correlation between the two networks was obtained with a minimum of 40 days of computer records and for individuals with at least 500 records per day. We also show through random permutation tests that the observed correlations go beyond what would be observed by simple synchronous activity, to reflect a preferential choice of closely located testing booths. The use of automatized cognitive testing therefore presents a new way of obtaining a large and regular amount of social information that is necessary to develop social network analysis. It also opens the possibility of studying dynamic changes in network structure with time and in relation to the cognitive performance of individuals.     

Group and individual stereotype threat and identity management strategies: An investigation of rugby women

The aim of this study was to test the gender identification effect on the stereotype threat (ST) experience felt, and whether the individual or group ST experience influenced the identity management strategies. Ninety‐six French rugby women were asked to imagine a training situation in which they practiced rugby in the presence of men. Results showed that the group identification did not affect Individual or Group ST and that the more women feel an individual ST the more they assess men's ability positively, and the less they assesses women's ability positively and that the more they feel a group ST the more they assess the ability of women positively. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.     

Psychopathic Traits and Delinquency Trajectories in Adolescence

The utility of psychopathic traits predicting various forms of antisocial behavior has been demonstrated extensively. However, there are mixed results concerning which of the three psychopathic personality dimensions—callous and unemotional traits, grandiose and manipulative interpersonal style, impulsive-irresponsible behavior—is the best predictor of antisocial behavior in adolescence. In this study, we examined developmental trajectories of antisocial behavior over four years in adolescence and psychopathic traits as predictors of these trajectories. Participants were 811 adolescents from a longitudinal community sample (M _age = 14). Results showed that four trajectories described the development of antisocial behavior from early to middle adolescence in the current sample. Both grandiose-manipulative traits and impulsive-irresponsible behavior were significant predictors of the high and elevated trajectories whereas callous-unemotional traits were not. Our findings underline the importance of studying the dimensions of the psychopathy constructs uniquely and independently of each other.     

Child-Oriented or Parent-Oriented Focused Intervention: Which is the Better Way to Decrease Children’s Externalizing Behaviors?

Research has tried to identify risk factors that increase the likelihood of difficulties with externalizing behavior. The relations between individual or environmental factors and externalizing behavior have been especially documented. Child-oriented and parent-oriented interventions have been designed in order to decrease externalizing behavior in preschoolers. To date, however, research has largely been compartmentalized. It is therefore not known whether child-oriented or parent-oriented intervention is more effective in reducing externalizing behavior. The aim of the current study was to answer this question by comparing two 8-week child with two 8-week parent-oriented group programs sharing a common experimental design. This was done in a pseudo-randomized trial conducted with 73 3–6-year-old children displaying clinically relevant levels of externalizing behavior who were assigned to one of the four interventions and 20 control participants who were allocated to a waiting list. The results indicate that the four programs focusing on a specific target variable, i.e., social cognition, inhibition, parental self-efficacy beliefs, or parental verbal responsiveness, are all effective in reducing externalizing behavior among preschoolers. Their effectiveness was moderated neither by their orientation toward the child or the parent nor by their content, suggesting that several effective solutions exist to improve behavioral adaptation in preschoolers. A second important highlight of this study is that, thanks to comparable effect sizes, brief focused programs appear to be a reasonable alternative to long multimodal programs, and may be more cost-effective for children and their families.     

The Unconscious Consumer: Effects of Environment on Consumer Behavior

In this article, we argue that consumer behavior is often strongly influenced by subtle environmental cues. Using grocery shopping as an example (or a “leitmotif,” if you wish), we first argue that the traditional perspective on consumer choice based on conscious information processing leaves much variance to be explained. Instead, we propose that many choices are made unconsciously and are strongly affected by the environment. Our argument is based on research on the perception–behavior link and on automatic goal pursuit.