Effects of Data Noise on Statistical Judgement

People made forecasts from graphically presented time series. Series were sinusoids overlaid by a zero or positive linear trend and a zero, low, moderate, or high level of noise. Forecasting performance was affected by both these variables. However, it did not correlate with ability to identify the trend and correlated significantly with ability to detect the sinusoidal pattern only when series were noise-free. A second experiment showed that the effect of data noise was not influenced by the number of forecasts that people made from a series. These findings are consistent with the view that data noise does not affect the way that forecasts are made but that it impairs them for two reasons. First, it renders the anchor-and-adjust heuristics underlying them less effective. Second, it causes people to add more noise to their judgements in their attempts to make them representative of the data.     

Depression at 3 Months Poststroke in the Elderly: Predictors and Indicators of Prevalence

The prevalence and determinants of depression in 79 elderly patients were assessed at 3 months poststroke. Predictor variables included gender, age, history of previous stroke, and hemispheric location of stroke. Indicator variables included two measures of physical functioning and seven aspects of cognitive functioning. Results indicated that 56% of patients had impairment in activities of daily living, and 39% reported clinically significant levels of depression. Prevalence of cognitive impairment ranged from 31% on a measure of basic cognitive functioning, through to 89% on a measure of complex attention. The results from a hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed that the combination of predictor and indicator variables explained 53% of the variance in depression scores. The three individual variables of history of previous stroke, physical functioning, and simple attention all made significant unique contributions to the variance in depression scores. The contribution of these findings to the ongoing debate concerning lesion location and poststroke depression is discussed.     

The stroop effect: Failure to focus attention or failure to maintain focusing?

Subjects matched the position (high or low) of a first stimulus with either the position or the meaning of a word (HI or LO) presented after an interstimulus interval (ISI). The form of the first stimulus (X or O) varied randomly within trial blocks and specified the relevant feature (meaning or position) of the second stimulus to the subject. When the relevant feature was meaning, Stroop interference from the second stimulus position was observed. This interference decreased as ISI increased. At the longest ISI, it was eliminated completely. A number of explanations for these effects are discussed and then tested in two further matching experiments. In a fourth experiment a similar decrease in interference was observed. These reductions in interference with increase in ISI appear to represent the development of attentional focusing on the relevant feature of the second stimulus. Stroop interference may occur in experiments where the relevant attribute is constant because of a difficulty associated with repeated focusing on the same attribute.     

Switching attention between the ears to monitor tones Nigel Harvey

Alternating dichotic presentation of tones was compared with monaural presentation in two different perceptual tasks. When Ss were asked to detect higher frequency target tones in fists of six background tones, they missed less than 5%. However, when the presentation was fast (10/sec) and the tones alternated dichotically, Ss reported “hearing” only three or four tones. In two further experiments, Ss were asked to judge the number of tones or to report their spatial and temporal positions; these tasks were much less accurately performed, for the dichotic lists, than the target detection task. The differing effects of switching rate on these tasks are discussed in relation to the types of processing they require.     

A continuous interference-filter monochromator

An inexpensive continuous interference-filter monochromator is described.     

Are absolute frequencies,relative frequencies,or both effective in reducing cognitive biases?

Biases in probabilistic reasoning are affected by alterations in the presentation of judgment tasks. In our experiments, students made likelihood judgments that an event was produced by various causes. These judgments were made in terms of probability, relative frequency or absolute frequency on a full or a pruned list of causes. When they had little personal experience of the event (causes of death), the pruning bias was smaller with relative frequencies than with absolute frequencies or probabilities. When they had more personal experience of the event (missing a lecture), the bias was less with both types of frequency than with probability but still lowest with relative frequency. We suggest that likelihood information is usually stored as relative frequencies when it has been obtained from public sources but that it is based on event counts when it is derived from personal experience. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theological Education in a New Missional Era: A Personal Journey with Seven Theses

The author's personal journey in discovering, developing, researching and practicing adult theological education in the church is rehearsed, pointing out key learning moments along the way. Out of this praxis seven theses are offered that set an agenda for theological education in the new missional era in which the church finds itself.     

Childhood fantasy play relates to adult socio-emotional competence

Childhood fantasy play and creation of imaginary companions are thought to confer socio-emotional benefits in children, but little is known about how they relate to socio-emotional competence in adulthood. A total of 341 adults (81 males) aged 18 and above (M = 31.47, SD = 12.62) completed an online survey examining their fantasy play as a child, their childhood imaginary companion status, and their adult socio-emotional competence. Adults who reported higher levels of childhood fantasy play were found to be significantly more prosocial, empathetic, and emotionally intelligent than their counterparts after controlling for demographic factors. Recall of a childhood imaginary companion, however, was significantly related only to higher scores for perspective-taking and did not explain unique variance in any adult competence measure. Findings suggest that engagement in fantasy play during childhood may be a precursor to later socio-emotional competence, while benefits previously associated with imaginary companions specifically may not extend into adulthood.