Estimating the probability of negative events

How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or not our probability estimates for negative events are systematically biased by their severity. In a minimal experimental context involving an unambiguous, objective representation of probability, we found that participants judged a controllable event as more likely to occur when its utility was extremely negative than when it was more neutral. A decision-theoretic explanation based on loss function asymmetries is advanced which supports the claim that probability estimates are not intrinsically biased by utilities.     

A probabilistic model of semantic plausibility in sentence processing

Experimental research shows that human sentence processing uses information from different levels of linguistic analysis, for example, lexical and syntactic preferences as well as semantic plausibility. Existing computational models of human sentence processing, however, have focused primarily on lexico-syntactic factors. Those models that do account for semantic plausibility effects lack a general model of human plausibility intuitions at the sentence level. Within a probabilistic framework, we propose a wide-coverage model that both assigns thematic roles to verb–argument pairs and determines a preferred interpretation by evaluating the plausibility of the resulting ( verb , role , argument ) triples. The model is trained on a corpus of role-annotated language data. We also present a transparent integration of the semantic model with an incremental probabilistic parser. We demonstrate that both the semantic plausibility model and the combined syntax/semantics model predict judgment and reading time data from the experimental literature.     

How to support learning from multiple hypertext sources

In the present study, we investigated three factors that were assumed to have a significant influence on the success of learning from multiple hypertexts, and on the construction of a documents model in particular. These factors were task (argumentative vs. narrative), available text material (with vs. without primary sources), and presentation format (active vs. static). The study was conducted with the help of the combination of three tools (DEWEX, Chemnitz LogAnalyzer, and SummTool) developed for Web-based experimenting. The results show that the task is the most important factor for successful learning from multiple hypertexts. Depending on the task, the participants were either able or unable to apply adequate strategies, such as considering the source information. It was also observed that argumentative tasks were supported by an active hypertext presentation format, whereas performance on narrative tasks increased with a passive presentation format. No effect was shown for the type of texts available.     

Acquiring a Taste: Alcohol Experiences of German Elementary School Children

Few data are available on alcohol experiences among elementary school children, although early onset and trying of alcohol use is known to be a risk factor for adolescent alcohol abuse. Until now, research leaves open the question on which factors encourage early trying behavior. In a cross-sectional study design, a written survey was conducted in 49 randomly selected elementary schools in Germany. The survey was carried out among 3rd and 4th graders with a median age of 9 years during class time in the school year 2010/2011. 1806 questionnaires were included in the study. The risk behavior of having tried alcohol was analyzed. A total of 37.7% (n = 681) of all children reported to have already tried alcohol. While grade and age had no significant influence in the final multivariate model, the gender effect stayed relevant (Male: aOR 1.2, 95%-CI 1.0–1.5), as did the question of whether the child liked going to school (No: aOR 1.4, 95%-CI 1.1–1.7), a lack of parental monitoring (aOR 1.5, 95%-CI 1.1–2.1), consistent parenting (Sometimes/never: aOR 1.5, 95%-CI 1.1–1.9), a regularly provided break-time snack (No: aOR 2.2, 95%-CI 1.3–3.8), as well as parents’ drinking (Yes: aOR 2.0, 95%-CI 1.6–2.6) and drinking among peers (Yes: aOR 8.5, 95%-CI 6.2–11.6). Our study shows that alcohol experiences can be highly prevalent among 3rd and 4th grade elementary school children in Germany. Our findings suggest that especially those variables which may be controlled by the parents are strongly associated with children’s alcohol experiences suggesting a starting point for preventative intervention measures. The results also indicate the need for innovative gender-sensitive approaches in the living environment of elementary school children.     

Looking Beyond the Church Tax: Families and the Disaffiliation of Austrian Roman Catholics

This study aims to understand the reasons why Roman Catholics leave the church based on the example of Austria, a country with high rates of disaffiliation since the 1980s. Although previous research focused mainly on the church tax, this study provides a more comprehensive analysis based on a mixed‐methods approach that reveals the central relevance of the family in the process. We began by conducting and analyzing 19 qualitative interviews with former Catholics. Next we used the Generations and Gender Survey (two‐wave representative panel data) to study the characteristics of Catholics who disaffiliated in the intersurvey period (2008–2012). Two types could be distinguished in the qualitative and the quantitative sample: attached and distant leavers. Both rarely attended religious services and were critical of the church, but attached leavers held a private form of religiosity and engaged in religious practices whereas distant leavers self‐identified as agnostics or atheists. The church tax was the main reason for disaffiliation among attached leavers while distant leavers disaffiliated on ideological grounds. One identical factor, however, was of major importance for explaining church‐leaving behavior among both types: family‐related matters and experiences. We conclude that family members and family transitions play a major role in the process of religious disaffiliation.     

D-optimal design for the Rasch counts model with multiple binary predictors

In this paper we derive optimal designs for the Rasch Poisson counts model and its extended version of the (generalized) negative binomial counts model incorporating several binary predictors for the difficulty parameter. To efficiently estimate the regression coefficients of the predictors, locally D-optimal designs are developed. After an introduction to the Rasch Poisson counts model and its extension, we will specify these models as particular generalized linear models. Based on this embedding, optimal designs for both models including several binary explanatory variables will be presented. Therefore, we will derive conditions on the effect sizes for certain designs to be locally D-optimal. Finally, it is pointed out that the results derived for the Rasch Poisson models can be applied for more general Poisson regression models which should receive more attention in future psychological research.     

Inadequate and infrequent are not alike: ERPs to deviant prosodic patterns in spoken sentence comprehension

The current study on German investigates Event-Related brain Potentials (ERPs) for the perception of sentences with intonations which are infrequent (i.e. vocatives) or inadequate in daily conversation. These ERPs are compared to the processing correlates for sentences in which the syntax-to-prosody relations are congruent and used frequently during communication. Results show that perceiving an adequate but infrequent prosodic structure does not result in the same brain responses as encountering an inadequate prosodic pattern. While an early negative-going ERP followed by an N400 were observed for both the infrequent and the inadequate syntax-to-prosody association, only the inadequate intonation also elicits a P600.     

Inferential reasoning by exclusion in pigeons, dogs, and humans

The ability to reason by exclusion (which is defined as the selection of the correct alternative by logically excluding other potential alternatives; Call in Anim Cogn 9:393–403 2006) is well established in humans. Several studies have found it to be present in some nonhuman species as well, whereas it seems to be somewhat limited or even absent in others. As inconsistent methodology might have contributed to the revealed inter-species differences, we examined reasoning by exclusion in pigeons (n = 6), dogs (n = 6), students (n = 6), and children (n = 8) under almost equal experimental conditions. After being trained in a computer-controlled two-choice procedure to discriminate between four positive (S+) and four negative (S−) photographs, the subjects were tested with displays consisting of one S− and one of four novel stimuli (S′). One pigeon, half of the dogs and almost all humans preferred S′ over S−, thereby choosing either by novelty, or by avoiding S− without acquiring any knowledge about S′, or by inferring positive class membership of S′ by excluding S−. To decide among these strategies the subjects that showed a preference for S′ were then tested with displays consisting of one of the S′ and one of four novel stimuli (S′′). Although the pigeon preferentially chose the S′′ and by novelty, dogs and humans maintained their preference for S′, thereby showing evidence of reasoning by exclusion. Taken together, the results of the present study suggest that none of the pigeons, but half of the dogs and almost all humans inferred positive class membership of S′ by logically excluding S−. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Clinical considerations for the treatment of body dysmorphic disorder with cognitive-behavioral therapy

Although cognitive behavior therapy has been found to be very effective in the treatment of body dysmorphic disorder (BDD), there still remain a number of challenges that clinicians face in the treatment of individuals with BDD. In this article, we discuss issues related to comorbid depression, suicidality, substance use disorders, personality disorders as well as the role of early life experiences, delusional intensity of beliefs, and motivation to change. The aim of this review is to provide a treatment aid to clinicians by offering specific recommendations for improved care based on the available literature as well as our clinical experience.     

The rationality of informal argumentation: a Bayesian approach to reasoning fallacies

Classical informal reasoning "fallacies," for example, begging the question or arguing from ignorance, while ubiquitous in everyday argumentation, have been subject to little systematic investigation in cognitive psychology. In this article it is argued that these "fallacies" provide a rich taxonomy of argument forms that can be differentially strong, dependent on their content. A Bayesian theory of content-dependent argument strength is presented. Possible psychological mechanisms are identified. Experiments are presented investigating whether people's judgments of the strength of 3 fallacies--the argumentum ad ignorantiam, the circular argument or petitio principii, and the slippery slope argument--are affected by the factors a Bayesian account predicts. This research suggests that Bayesian accounts of reasoning can be extended to the more general human activity of argumentation.