Competitive Dynamics in Forecasting: The Interaction of Skill and Uncertainty

The outcomes in many competitive tasks depend upon both skill and luck. Behavioral theories on risk taking in tournaments indicate that low‐skilled individuals may have incentives to take more risks than high‐skilled ones. We build on these theories and suggest, in addition, that when luck is more important in determining outcomes, the increase in risk taking is larger for low‐skilled than high‐skilled individuals. We test this hypothesis by analyzing stock analysts' forecasts of companies' earnings per share under market conditions that vary in volatility and thus imply different levels of luck in outcomes. Specifically, noting that forecasts that deviate widely from the consensus—which is observable by the analyst—potentially carry career‐related rewards but also reputational risks, we examine the degree of deviation from consensus exhibited by analysts of different skill levels (measured by both past forecasting accuracy and education) in different market conditions. We find that average deviations from consensus increase as markets become more volatile. At the same time, under conditions of high volatility, low‐skilled analysts exhibit larger increases in deviations from consensus than high‐skilled analysts. These field data results support our hypothesis based on of risk taking in tournaments. We discuss alternative interpretations such as, for example, self‐serving attributions and indicate directions for future research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rumination in migraine: Mediating effects of brooding and reflection between migraine and psychological distress

Objective: The relationship between migraine and psychological distress has been consistently reported in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. We hypothesised that a stable tendency to perseverative thoughts such as rumination would mediate the relationship between migraine and psychological distress.

Design and Main Outcomes Measures: Self-report questionnaires measuring depressive rumination, current psychological distress and migraine symptoms in two independent European population cohorts, recruited from Budapest (N = 1139) and Manchester (N = 2004), were used. Structural regression analysis within structural equation modelling was applied to test the mediational role of brooding and reflection, the components of rumination, between migraine and psychological distress. Sex, age and lifetime depression were controlled for in the analysis.

Results: Migraine predicted higher brooding and reflection scores, and brooding proved to be a mediator between migraine and psychological distress in both samples, while reflection mediated the relationship significantly only in the Budapest sample.

Conclusions: Elevated psychological distress in migraine is partially attributed to ruminative response style. Further studies are needed to expand our findings to clinical samples and to examine how rumination links to the adjustment to migraine.     

A test of the generalizability of a recently suggested conceptual model for assessment center ratings

The present study replicated and extended research concerning a recently suggested conceptual model of the underlying factors of dimension ratings in assessment centers (ACs) proposed by Hoffman, Melchers, Blair, Kleinmann, and Ladd that includes broad dimension factors, exercise factors, and a general performance factor. We evaluated the criterion-related validity of these different components and expanded their nomological network. Results showed that all components (i.e., broad dimensions, exercises, general performance) were significant predictors of training performance. Furthermore, broad dimensions showed incremental validity beyond exercises and general performance. Finally, relationships between the AC factors and individual difference constructs (e.g., Big Five, core self-evaluations, positive and negative affectivity) supported the construct-related validity of broad dimensions and provided further insights in the nature of the different AC components.     

Risk and Protective Factors in Child-to-Parent Violence: A Study of the YLS/CMI in a Spanish Juvenile Court

Journal of Child and Family Studies - Child to Parent Violence (CPV) is one of the crimes with the highest rates of increase in Spain in recent years, and has had a significant media and social...     

Inclined Weight-Loaded Walking at Different Speeds: Pelvis-Shoulder Coordination,Trunk Movements and Cost of Transport

Although studied at level surface, the trunk kinematics and pelvis-shoulder coordination of incline walking are unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the speed effects on pelvis-shoulder coordination and trunk movement and the cost of transport (C) during unloaded and loaded (25% of body mass) 15% incline walking. We collected 3-dimensional kinematic and oxygen consumption data from 10 physically active young men. The movements were analyzed in the sagittal plane (inclination and range of trunk motion) and the transverse plane (range of shoulder and pelvic girdle motion and phase difference). The rotational amplitude of the shoulder girdle decreased with load at all speeds, and it was lower at the highest speeds. The rotational amplitude of the pelvic girdle did not change with the different speeds. The phase difference was greater at optimal speed (3 km.hr^?1, at the lowest C) in the loaded and the unloaded conditions. The trunk inclination was greater with load and increased with speed, whereas the range of trunk motion was lower in the loaded condition and decreased with increasing speed. In conclusion, the load decreased the range of girdles and trunk motion, and the pelvis-shoulder coordination seemed to be critical for the incline walking performance.     

It's not that bad: Social challenges to emotional disclosure enhance adjustment to stress

Studies conducted in the United States (n=115) and Spain (n=146) examined how talking about an acute stressor in different social contexts influences cognitive, emotional, and physiological adjustment. In both studies, female college students viewed a video dramatizing a real-life, gang rape scene on two separate days. After the first viewing, participants were randomly assigned to one of four social conditions: no talk, talk alone about their reactions, talk to a validating confederate about their reactions, or talk to a challenging confederate about their reactions. Participants in the challenge condition showed the greatest emotional, cognitive, and physiological benefits across cultures, whereas participants in the validate and talk conditions evidenced only modest benefits. These findings suggest that the social context of disclosure has a strong influence on adjustment processes and that providing an alternative and more sanguine perspective can help individuals recover from acute stressors.     

CAREGIVER–CHILD INTERACTION,CAREGIVER TRANSITIONS,AND GROUP SIZE AS MEDIATORS BETWEEN INTERVENTION CONDITION AND ATTACHMENT AND PHYSICAL GROWTH OUTCOMES IN INSTITUTIONALIZED CHILDREN

This report describes a secondary analysis of data from a comprehensive intervention project which included training and structural changes in three Baby Homes in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. Multiple mediator models were tested according to the R.M. Baron and D.A. Kenny ( 1986 ) causal‐steps approach to examine whether caregiver–child interaction quality, number of caregiver transitions, and group size mediated the effects of the intervention on children's attachment behaviors and physical growth. The study utilized a subsample of 163 children from the original Russian Baby Home project, who were between 11 and 19 months at the time of assessment. Results from comparisons of the training and structural changes versus no intervention conditions are presented. Caregiver–child interaction quality and number of caregiver transitions fully mediated the association between intervention condition and attachment behavior. No other mediation was found. Results suggest that the quality of interaction between caregivers and children in institutional care is of primary importance to children's development, but relationship context may play a less direct mediational role, supporting caregiver–child interactions.     

Autism: Hard to Switch from Details to the Whole

It has long been proposed that individuals with autism exhibit a superior processing of details at the expense of an impaired global processing. This theory has received some empirical support, but results are mixed. In this research we have studied local and global processing in ASD and Typically Developing children, with an adaptation of the Navon task, designed to measure congruency effects between local and global stimuli and switching cost between local and global tasks. ASD children showed preserved global processing; however, compared to Typically Developing children, they exhibited more facilitation from congruent local stimuli when they performed the global task. In addition, children with ASD had more switching cost than Typically Developing children only when they switched from the local to the global task, reflecting a specific difficulty to disengage from local stimuli. Together, results suggest that ASD is characterized by a tendency to process local details, they benefit from the processing of local stimuli at the expense of increasing cost to disengage from local stimuli when global processing is needed. Thus, this work demonstrates experimentally the advantages and disadvantages of the increased local processing in children with ASD.     

International adoption: assessment of adaptive and maladaptive behavior of adopted minors in Spain

Research on adjustment of internationally adopted children indicates that, although they have adequate development, more emotional and behavioral problems are detected compared with nonadopted children. In this research, emotional and behavioral characteristics of a sample of 52 internationally adopted minors were examined with the BASC (Parent Rating Scales and Self-Report of Personality), comparing the outcomes with 44 nonadopted minors, all of them of ages between 6 and 11 years (mean age = 8.01 years). Results indicate differences between adopted and nonadopted children related to somatization, adopted minors are those that obtain lower scores in the scale, and in the adaptability scale, where nonadopted minors obtain higher scores. Significant differences were found in the adaptive abilities scales, suggesting that nonadopted boys show better abilities than adopted ones, and no differences were found among girls. In general, boys present higher scores in externalizing symptomatology and depression than girls. Among adopted children, time spent in an institution is a variable that has negative impact on the onset of externalizing and internalizing problems. Minors coming from Eastern Europe display more attentional problems, poorer adaptive abilities and poorer interpersonal relations than the rest of the minors. According to the age at placement, attentional problems appear in minors adopted after the age of 3 years.