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121.
Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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123.
Wiebren S. Jansen Jojanneke van der Toorn Yonn N. A. Bokern Naomi Ellemers 《Journal of applied social psychology》2024,54(4):221-229
In this research, we aim to develop a better understanding of the different ways in which employees can advance or resist the diversity and inclusion (D&I) policies implemented by their organization. To this end, we complement prior work by distinguishing between employees' attitudinal and behavioral opposition versus support for D&I policies. We combine these to distinguish different combinations of attitudinal and behavioral responses that characterize specific groups of employees, which we label opponents, bystanders, reluctants, and champions. In a large-scale survey study conducted among employees from seven organizations located in the Netherlands (n = 2913), we find empirical support for the validity of this taxonomy and its value in understanding the likelihood that employees advance or resist D&I policies. Furthermore, we find more convergence between attitudinal and behavioral support when employees perceive a more positive climate for inclusion. Together, these results advance existing scholarly work by providing both a theoretical account of and empirical evidence for the different ways in which D&I policies may find support or resistance from employees. In addition, our work offer practitioners a practical tool to examine the likelihood that D&I policies meet support or opposition from their employees and therefore enables them to design and implement more effective D&I interventions. 相似文献
124.
Kai Sassenberg Naomi Ellemers Daan Scheepers 《Journal of experimental social psychology》2012,48(2):550-555
Social power can be construed as opportunity (focusing on the possibility of one's own goal achievement resulting from the control over others' outcomes) or as responsibility (focusing on the implications of one's own actions resulting from the control over others' outcomes). Four experiments tested the impact of different construals of social power on the attraction of power. Due to the salience of the possibility for goal achievement, power construed as opportunity was expected to be more attractive than power construed as responsibility. This effect was predicted to be particularly pronounced among individuals with a strong promotion orientation, because of their focus on gains and achievements. Results supported these predictions and indicate that future research should take different construals of power into account. 相似文献
125.
Zaal MP Van Laar C Ståhl T Ellemers N Derks B 《The British journal of social psychology / the British Psychological Society》2012,51(1):93-110
The results of three experiments showed that regulatory focus influences the way in which the importance and likelihood of social change affect individuals' commitment to collective action. In Studies 1 (N= 82) and 2 (N= 153), the strength of participants' chronic regulatory focus was measured. In Study 3 (N= 52), promotion or prevention focus was experimentally induced. The results showed that for individuals under promotion focus, commitment to collective action depended on the perceived likelihood that through this action important social change would be achieved. Individuals under prevention focus were willing to commit to collective action when they attached high importance to its goal, regardless of the extent to which they believed that attainment of this goal was likely. Implications of these results for work on regulatory focus and collective action are discussed. 相似文献
126.
Oshin Vartanian Keith StewartDavid R. Mandel Nada PavlovicLianne McLellan Paul J. Taylor 《Personality and individual differences》2012,52(3):250-254
Research has demonstrated high levels of consensus and self-other agreement for extraversion and conscientiousness. However, the mechanisms whereby these assessments contribute to accuracy in behavioral predictions remain unclear. In this study, two judges rated targets on Big Five personality factors, and predicted their compliance to offer help in response to a fabricated emergency. Whereas one judge interacted directly with the target, the other judge only observed the interaction. There was consensus and self-other agreement on conscientiousness for both judges. Critically, self-reported conscientiousness fully mediated the effect of judged conscientiousness on compliance to offer help, regardless of the nature of the judge-target interaction. These results demonstrate a mechanism whereby judged personality can predict a specific behavioral outcome in initially unacquainted persons. 相似文献
127.
Keough ME Porter E Kredlow MA Worthington JJ Hoge EA Pollack MH Shear MK Simon NM 《Assessment》2012,19(2):257-259
The Panic Disorder Severity Scale (PDSS) is a clinician-administered measure of panic disorder symptom severity widely used in clinical research. This investigation sought to provide clinically meaningful anchor points for the PDSS both in terms of clinical severity as measured by the Clinical Global Impression-Severity Scale (CGI-S) and to extend its clinical meaningfulness by examining its association with quality of life. A total of 63 individuals with a primary diagnosis of panic disorder were assessed on completion of a 6- or 8-week psychotherapy or pharmacotherapy trial for the treatment of panic disorder. As expected, the PDSS was correlated with both the CGI-S and quality of life. These results provide further support for the validity and clinical utility of the PDSS and provide simple anchors to help guide the potential use of the PDSS scale to measure treatment progress in clinical practice. 相似文献
128.
Abstract The present study examined coping flexibility and correlates of this style of approaching stressful situations. Two methods for assessing coping flexibility, the Flex (Schwartz and Daltroy, 1991) and a modification of the Ways of Coping Checklist (Folkman and Lazarus. 1980) were administered to 28 men and 32 women, who were also asked questions about their age, gender, style of impression management (self-monitoring and social desirability), and basic personality variables from the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (Tellegen. 1982). Subjects responded to four common scenarios described by a 2 (social/nonsocial) × 2 (minor/major) matrix. Gender differences were not found for the Flex, but men exhibited more flexibility than did women when determined by the WOC range score. Older subjects exhibited smaller ranges on both the Flex and the WOC, suggesting that they were less flexible in coping than were younger subjects. Correlations with the Self-Monitoring scale approached significance for the Flex and were significant for the WOC. Greater flexibility was associated with greater well-being and achievement and negatively correlated with stress reactions and alienation. 相似文献
129.
This study aimed to identify factors predictive of intentions to participate in genetic testing for hereditary cancer. Measures of the psychosocial influences on intention were based on the theories of reasoned action (TRA) and planned behaviour (TPB) and a new measure of Attitude toward Uncertainty. The participants (the breast cancer sample, n = 124; the colon cancer sample, n = 168) were recruited via a general practitioner's patient database and asked to complete postal questionnaires. The overall response rate was 57.4% (54.7% in the colon cancer sample, 61.4% in the breast cancer sample). In the colon cancer sample, 72% of respondents stated that they would choose to participate in genetic testing for colon cancer susceptibility. In the breast cancer sample, 77% of respondents stated that they would choose to participate in genetic testing for breast cancer susceptibility. The TRA components (attitudes and subjective norms) and Attitude toward Uncertainty emerged as the strongest predictors of intention. The Attitude toward Uncertainty appears to moderate intention in that participants with more negative attitudes toward uncertainty are more likely to undergo the test than those seeking more certainty. 相似文献
130.
Ira E. Hyman Jr. Naomi K. Burland Hollyann M. Duskin Megan C. Cook Christina M. Roy Jessie C. McGrath Rebecca F. Roundhill 《Applied cognitive psychology》2013,27(2):204-215
Summary: Having a song stuck in your head is a commonly experienced intrusive thought. We explored the intrusive song phenomenon through a survey, an experimental diary study, and three laboratory experiments. Contrary to the belief that only obnoxious songs get stuck, we found that songs people know and like frequently became intrusive. We also found that intrusive songs followed environmental cues. In addition, if a song continued to play in someone's head immediately after listening to it, the song was likely to return as an intrusive song within the next 24 hours. Similar to mind wandering, the return of intrusive songs depended on cognitive resources: people reported that intrusive songs returned during low cognitive load activities, and we found that overloading the cognitive systems with challenging activities increased intrusive song frequency. Throughout our studies, we easily created and manipulated intrusive song experiences. Songs provide a valuable method to investigate intrusive thoughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献