Patterns of Preference for Numerical and Verbal Probabilities

We report results of an experiment designed to test a principle formulated by Budescu and Wallsten (1995), that, when communicating uncertainty information, mode choices are sensitive to sources and degrees of vagueness. In addition, we examined subjects’ efficacy in using such uncertainty information as a function of communication mode, source, and vagueness. In phase one of the experiment, subjects in a dyad used precise (numerical) or imprecise (verbal) expressions to communicate to a remote partner precise or vague uncertainty about the likelihoods of events. Spinner outcomes were used to generate precise uncertainty while answers to almanac questions were used to elicit vague uncertainty. In phase two, subjects saw the events paired with their partners’ estimates of similar events, and were asked to gamble on one event from each pair. Communication mode preferences were measured as the relative frequency that subjects chose the numerical mode to either express or receive uncertainty information regarding the events. Efficacy was measured as the relative frequency that subjects choose from the pair the event associated with the objectively more probable uncertainty expression. Underlying uncertainty interacted with direction of communication to affect preferences for modes of expression of the probabilities. Subjects preferred precise (numerical) information, especially for precise events (spinners). For vague events (questions), their preference for precise (numerical) information was stronger when receiving than when communicating information. Similar preferences were reflected in the efficiency of subsequent gamble decisions based on the probability estimates. Specifically, decisions were more efficacious (i.e. consistent with Expected Utility) when degrees of precision in events and estimates matched. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self-perception profile in children with cancer: self vs parent report.

Self-perception about competence, behaviour, and self-worth were examined in 30 children (8 to 14 years) recently diagnosed as having cancer and were compared with that of their parents' perception. The poor agreement between parents' and children's ratings on physical appearance and social acceptance is noteworthy in that these two domains are particularly vulnerable in children with cancer, given the effect of chemotherapy on physical appearance and children's tendency to view themselves as socially undesirable or a burden to others. This finding, if replicated, can have implications for therapeutic intervention since the discrepancy score could be used to challenge children's negative views in the context of cognitive therapy to improve their self-esteem.     

The structure and function of selection, optimization, and compensation in middle adolescence: Theoretical and applied implications

Intentional self-regulation is a core facet of human functioning, involving people's modulation of their thoughts, attention, emotions, and behaviors to react to environmental demands and to influence their own development. Using data from Grades 8, 9, and 10 of the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development (PYD), the structure of intentional self-regulation, as indexed by a measure of selection (S), optimization (O), and compensation (C), or SOC, was assessed. Within-and-across-time links between SOC scores and indicators of PYD, and risk/problem behaviors were ascertained. A tripartite structure of intentional self-regulation was identified across all three grades, and SOC scores at all times positively covaried with PYD and negatively with risk/problem behaviors. Findings were strongest for overall SOC scores and for the components of “O” and “C.” We discuss the implications of these findings for youth development programs.     

Negative valence can evoke a liberal response bias in syllogistic reasoning

Recently, studies have demonstrated that negative valence reduces the magnitude of the belief-bias effect in syllogistic reasoning. This effect has been localized in the reasoning stage, in the form of increased deliberation on trials where validity and conclusion believability are incongruent. Here, using signal detection theory, we show that the attenuation of belief bias observed when valence was negative can also be evoked by a liberal response bias at the decision stage. Indeed, when valence was negative participants adopted a more liberal criterion for judging syllogisms as “valid,” and were overconfident in their judgments. They also displayed less sensitivity in distinguishing between valid and invalid syllogisms. Our findings dovetail with recent evidence from memory research suggesting that negative valence can evoke a liberal response bias without improving performance. Our novel contribution is the demonstration that the attenuating effect of negative valence on belief bias can take multiples routes—by influencing the decision stage as was the case here, the reasoning stage as has been demonstrated elsewhere, and potentially both stages.     

Marxism and radical democracy 1

Whether or not Marxism leads straight to authoritarianism and the destruction of individual liberty is a question which has long exercised both theorists and politicians. This paper deals with a narrower, though related issue: Is Marxism actually reconcilable with radical democracy, the type of democracy advocated by those, including Marxists, who berate the iniquities and hypocrisy of parliamentary liberalism? The answer, according to my paper, is no. The Marxist tradition contains four characteristic features which tend to contradict the participatory procedures most Marxists profess to desire. These features are: (1) the view of Marxism as a science, yielding objective solutions to social and political dilemmas; (2) the messianic aspiration for a society of perfect unity; (3) the belief that human rights are not independent moral norms but so much bourgeois ’ideological nonsense’ (Marx), expressing the antagonistic relationships of the capitalist regime; and (4) hostility to the market mechanism, which results in a preference for a totally planned economy. Marxism, unless revised beyond recognition, would seem, paradoxically, to be more congruous with the élitist, constricted type of democracy we have in the West than with the more egalitarian mode of decision‐making defended in the writings of Marx himself.