Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach

What factors contribute to hindsight bias, the phenomenon whereby the known outcome of an event appears obvious only after the fact? The Causal Model Theory (CMT) of hindsight bias (Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39:182–188, 2008a; in J Expl Psychol: Learn Mem Cog 34:1043–1054, 2008b; Pezzo in Mem 11:421–441, 2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17:30–35, 1991) posits that hindsight bias can occur when people have the opportunity to identify potential causal antecedents and evaluate whether they could have led to the outcome. Two experiments incorporating highly controlled minimalist scenarios supported the CMT. As predicted by the CMT, hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the actual outcome better than the alternative outcome, and reverse hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the alternative outcome better than the actual outcome. Moreover, we found new evidence that outcome knowledge alone was insufficient to elicit hindsight bias in the absence of a potential causal antecedent. Implications for future directions in hindsight bias research are discussed.     

Discounting of probabilistic rewards is associated with gambling abstinence in treatment-seeking pathological gamblers

Individuals with addictive disorders, including substance abusers and pathological gamblers, discount or devalue rewards delayed in time more than controls. Theoretically, preference for probabilistic rewards is directly related to gambling, but limited empirical research has examined probabilistic discounting in individuals with pathological gambling. This study evaluated probability and delay discounting in treatment-seeking pathological gamblers and their association with gambling treatment outcomes during and after treatment. At time of treatment entry, 226 pathological gamblers completed probability and delay discounting tasks. They were then randomized to one of three treatment conditions, and gambling behavior was measured throughout treatment and at a 1-year follow-up assessment. After controlling for possibly confounding variables and treatment condition, more shallow probability discounting was associated with greater reductions in amounts wagered during treatment and likelihood of gambling abstinence at the end of treatment and throughout the follow-up period. No associations were noted between delay discounting and gambling treatment outcomes. These data suggest that probability discounting may be an important construct in understanding pathological gambling and its treatment.     

Differentiation of Self, Stress, and Emotional Support as Predictors of Psychological Distress

We explored the relations among stress, emotional support, and differentiation of self from the family of origin as predictors of psychological distress in a sample of 200 college students. First, we investigated the discrepant findings of Murdock and Gore (Contemp Fam Ther 23: 319–335, 2004) and Skowron et al. (J Couns Dev 82: 69–78, 2004) regarding the relationships among stress, differentiation, and symptoms (a question of mediation vs. moderation). Second, we examined the role of emotional support in concert with stress and differentiation. When both stressful events and perceived stress were measured, differentiation of self was found to be a significant partial mediator of their effects on psychological distress. Emotional support was also found to partially mediate the relationship between differentiation of self and psychological distress. Differentiation of self partially mediated the relationship between actual and perceived stress, and perceived stress partially mediated the relationship between differentiation of self and psychological distress.     

Multisystemic therapy for young offenders: families' experiences of therapeutic processes and outcomes

Multisystemic Therapy (MST) has been found to be effective in reducing youth antisocial behavior, but little is known about the process and impact of MST from the perspective of families themselves. This qualitative study explored parents' and young people's experiences of MST, focusing on aspects of the intervention that promoted or limited change. Thirty-seven semistructured interviews were conducted with a consecutive sample of 21 families (21 parent interviews, 16 young people) who had participated in a randomized controlled trial of MST for young offenders in the United Kingdom. Thematic analysis yielded 10 themes, organized into two domains: (a) engagement in MST and initial processes of change captures the central importance of the therapeutic relationship and the MST engagement model in families' positive experiences of MST; and (b) outcomes are complex reflects the range of positive outcomes reported (notably increased parental confidence and skills, improved family relationships, a return to education, and greater reflection and aspiration on the part of the young person) and mixed behavior outcomes. Even when the young person had reoffended, respondents indicated a range of other benefits for the family. The findings support the MST theory of change as well as point to some outcomes not usually measured in MST outcome studies. They also suggest some adaptations that may increase the impact of the intervention, including more attention to the influence of deviant peers, and ongoing support for families struggling to maintain strategies beyond the prescribed treatment period.     

The competent community: Toward a vital reformulation of professional ethics

Psychologists are ethically obligated to ensure their own competence. When problems of professional competence occur, psychologists must take appropriate steps to regain competence while protecting those they serve. Yet conceptualizations of the competence obligation are thoroughly intertwined with Western ideals of individualism and a model of the person as self-contained, self-controlled, and perpetually rational. Research in health care, education, and multicultural and social psychology raise serious doubts about psychologists' capacity for consistently accurate self-assessments of competence. To address this problem, the authors advocate that education, training, professional ethics standards, and credentialing criteria be infused with a robust communitarian ethos and a culturally pervasive ethic of care. The authors propose a shift in discourse about competence to incorporate both competent individuals and competent communities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Hostile masculinity,sexual aggresion,and gender-biased domineeringness in conversations

This study assessed the ability of certain variables to predict which men would be more domineering in conversations with a woman and/or with a man. The variables included men's self-reported sexually aggressive behavior and several components comprising a personality profile labeled “Hostile Masculinity.” As expected, these variables successfully predicted domineering behavior toward the female but not toward the male. These findings supported theories hypothesizing that men's desire to control women and men's antisocial behavior toward them are due to specific rather than to general factors (i. e., evolutionary and feminist theorizing). © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

An update on the study of playfulness in adolescents: its relationship with academic performance,well-being,anxiety, and roles in bullying-type-situations

Playfulness is an individual differences variable at the trait-level. It describes the ability to experience or (re)frame everyday situations as stimulating, interesting, and/or entertaining. Playfulness in adolescents is understudied. We collected self-report data on four facets of playfulness (other-directed, lighthearted, intellectual, and whimsical) in two German-speaking samples of adolescents (N1 = 210, N2 = 270; age range 13–18 years). The facets correlated positively, but to varying degrees with life satisfaction (social life, self, friends) and intrinsic goals. There was no relationship with self-reported school grades and achievement goals (Sample 1). Playfulness in girls was associated with peer-nominated (classmates) bullying behaviors and victimization status (Sample 2). Overall, the findings show that playfulness has an impact on various domains of the life of adolescents. We discuss directions for further research in the field.