Hindsight bias and causal reasoning: a minimalist approach

What factors contribute to hindsight bias, the phenomenon whereby the known outcome of an event appears obvious only after the fact? The Causal Model Theory (CMT) of hindsight bias (Nestler et al. in Soc Psychol 39:182–188, 2008a; in J Expl Psychol: Learn Mem Cog 34:1043–1054, 2008b; Pezzo in Mem 11:421–441, 2003; Wasserman et al. in Pers Soc Psychol Bull 17:30–35, 1991) posits that hindsight bias can occur when people have the opportunity to identify potential causal antecedents and evaluate whether they could have led to the outcome. Two experiments incorporating highly controlled minimalist scenarios supported the CMT. As predicted by the CMT, hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the actual outcome better than the alternative outcome, and reverse hindsight bias occurred when the causal factor explained the alternative outcome better than the actual outcome. Moreover, we found new evidence that outcome knowledge alone was insufficient to elicit hindsight bias in the absence of a potential causal antecedent. Implications for future directions in hindsight bias research are discussed.     

Discounting of probabilistic rewards is associated with gambling abstinence in treatment-seeking pathological gamblers

Individuals with addictive disorders, including substance abusers and pathological gamblers, discount or devalue rewards delayed in time more than controls. Theoretically, preference for probabilistic rewards is directly related to gambling, but limited empirical research has examined probabilistic discounting in individuals with pathological gambling. This study evaluated probability and delay discounting in treatment-seeking pathological gamblers and their association with gambling treatment outcomes during and after treatment. At time of treatment entry, 226 pathological gamblers completed probability and delay discounting tasks. They were then randomized to one of three treatment conditions, and gambling behavior was measured throughout treatment and at a 1-year follow-up assessment. After controlling for possibly confounding variables and treatment condition, more shallow probability discounting was associated with greater reductions in amounts wagered during treatment and likelihood of gambling abstinence at the end of treatment and throughout the follow-up period. No associations were noted between delay discounting and gambling treatment outcomes. These data suggest that probability discounting may be an important construct in understanding pathological gambling and its treatment.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE QUESTION “WHAT IS THIS?” ON TACT-TRAINING OUTCOMES OF CHILDREN WITH AUTISM

Tact training is a common element of many habilitative programs for individuals with developmental disabilities. A commonly recommended practice is to include a supplemental question (e.g., “What is this?”) during training trials for tacts of objects. However, the supplemental question is not a defining feature of the tact relation, and prior research suggests that its inclusion might sometimes impede tact acquisition. The present study compared tact training with and without the supplemental question in terms of acquisition and maintenance. Two of 4 children with autism acquired tacts more efficiently in the object-only condition; the remaining 2 children acquired tacts more efficiently in the object + question condition. During maintenance tests in the absence of the supplemental question, all participants emitted tacts at end-of-training levels across conditions with no differential effect observed between training conditions.Key words: autism, language training, stimulus control, tacts, verbal behaviorSkinner (1957) defined the tact as a response “evoked by a particular object or event or property of an object or event” (p. 82) and considered it to be one of the most important verbal operants. Tacts are maintained by generalized social reinforcement and, thus, they are central to many social interactions. For example, the tact “That cloud looks like a horse” (under the control of a visual stimulus) could evoke a short verbal interaction about the sky or horses. The tact “My tummy hurts” (under the control of an interoceptive stimulus) could evoke soothing statements from a parent. A child who tacts “doggie” in the presence of a cat likely would evoke a correction statement from an adult, further refining two stimulus classes (i.e., dog and cat). These examples illustrate that, despite their topographical differences, the tact relations share antecedent control by a nonverbal discriminative stimulus (S^D) and are maintained by generalized social reinforcement.In habilitative programs for individuals with language impairments, autism, and intellectual disabilities, tacts often are taught for objects (e.g., ball), object features (e.g., color, size, shape), activities (e.g., jumping), prepositions (e.g., between), and emotions (e.g., sad) among others. Although conceptualized differently among therapeutic approaches, the tact relation occupies a central position in many early-intervention curricula. For example, Lovaas (2003) and Leaf and McEachin (1999) describe these relations as expressive labels and recommend that they be taught early in language training using three-dimensional objects accompanied by the supplemental questions “What is it?” or “What''s this?” Alternatively, Sundberg and Partington (1998) explicitly refer to the relation as a tact and recommend beginning instruction by including the question “What is it?” before eventually fading the question. In addition to these clinical manuals, the use of supplemental questions during tact training has appeared in some empirical studies on tact or expressive-label training (e.g., Braam & Sundberg, 1991; Coleman & Stedman, 1974), but not others (e.g., Williams & Greer, 1993). Regardless of whether tact training initially includes supplemental questions prior to response opportunities, tacts ultimately should be emitted readily under the sole control of the nonverbal S^D as well as when it happens to be accompanied by a question.Conceptually, at least four potential problems could arise from introducing supplemental questions early and consistently in tact training. First, the acquired responses might not be emitted unless the question is posed (i.e., prompt dependence). This problem would lead to few spontaneous tacts occurring outside the explicit stimulus control of the training environment. Williams and Greer (1993) compared comprehensive language training conducted under the stimulus control specified in Skinner''s (1957) taxonomy of verbal behavior to a more traditional psycholinguistic perspective with supplemental questions and instructions embedded within trials. For all three adolescents with developmental disabilities, the targets taught from the verbal behavior perspective were maintained better in natural contexts than those taught from the psycholinguistic perspective. However, because data were not reported for each individual verbal operant, it is unclear what specific impact their tact-training procedures had on the outcomes.The second potential problem is that the supplemental question might acquire intraverbal control over early responses and interfere with the acquisition of subsequent tact targets. For example, Partington, Sundberg, Newhouse, and Spengler (1994) showed that the tact repertoire of a child with autism had been hindered by prior instruction during which she was asked “What is this?” while being shown an object. The supplemental question subsequently evoked previously acquired responses and blocked the ability of new nonverbal S^Ds (i.e., objects) to evoke new responses. Partington et al. then showed that new tacts were acquired by eliminating the supplemental question from instructional trials.The third potential problem is that learners might imitate part of or the entire supplemental question prior to emitting the target response (e.g., “What is it” → “What is it … ball.”). For example, Coleman and Stedman (1974) demonstrated that a 10-year-old girl with autism imitated the question “What is this?” while being taught to label stimuli depicted in color photographs. Such an outcome results in a socially awkward tact repertoire and requires additional intervention to remedy the problem.Finally, including supplemental questions during tact training might impede skill acquisition, perhaps via a combination of the problems described earlier. Sundberg, Endicott, and Eigenheer (2000) taught sign tacts to two young children with autism who had prior difficulty acquiring tacts. In one condition, the experimenter held up an object and asked, “What is that?” In the comparison condition, the experimenter intraverbally prompted the participant to “sign [object name]” in the presence of the object. Sundberg et al. demonstrated substantially more efficient tact acquisition under the sign-prompt condition than when the question “What is that?” was included in trials; the latter condition sometimes failed to produce mastery-level responding.Teaching an entire tact repertoire while including supplemental questions (e.g., “What is it?”) during training trials could produce a learner who is able to talk about his or her environment only when asked to do so with similar questions. To the extent that this is not a therapist''s clinical goal, teaching the tact under its proper controlling variables may eliminate such problems. Of course, inclusion of supplemental questions during the early phases of language training could be faded over time such that the target tact relation is left intact prior to the end of training (Sundberg & Partington, 1998). However, the aforementioned studies have documented problems with using supplemental questions during tact training. Given the ubiquity of tact training in habilitation programs, the numerous problems that may arise when supplemental questions are included in training trials, and the limited research on the topic, further investigation is warranted. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to compare directly the rate of acquisition and subsequent maintenance of tacts taught using only a nonverbal S^D (i.e., object only) with tacts taught using a question (“What is this?”) in conjunction with the nonverbal S^D (i.e., object + question). The present study extends earlier research by examining both acquisition and maintenance and by including individuals with no prior history of formal tact training.     

Further analysis of variables that affect self-control with aversive events

The purpose of this study was to examine variables that affect self-control in the context of academic task completion by elementary school children with autism. In the baseline assessment of Study 1, mathematics problem completion was shown to be an aversive event, and sensitivity to task magnitude, task difficulty, and delay to task completion were measured. The effects of manipulating values of those parameters on self-control then were assessed. For all participants, self-control increased as a function of one or more changes in task parameter values. In Study 2, the effects of a commitment response on self-control was assessed. Results indicated that for all participants, levels of self-control were higher when the opportunity to commit to the immediate aversive event was available.     

Prospective Examination of Self‐Regulatory Efficacy in Predicting Walking for Active Transportation: A Social Cognitive Theory Approach

Walking for transportation is associated with health benefits. Minimal theory‐based research has examined social cognitive and environmental predictors. This study examined social cognitions (self‐regulatory efficacy to plan/schedule and overcome barriers; distance and travel time cognitions) and an environmental factor (proximity) as predictors of walking for transportation. Participants (n = 105) were university students, faculty, and staff, living within a walkable distance to campus. Social cognitions and proximity measures were completed at baseline, followed by walking for transportation to/from the campus over 2 weeks. A hierarchical multiple regression analysis predicted walking (R²_adjusted = .55; p < .05). Self‐regulatory efficacy to plan/schedule and overcome barriers were independent predictors (p's < .01). Findings supported theoretical contentions that self‐regulatory efficacy predicts walking for transportation.     

Thin-slice perception develops slowly

Body language and facial gesture provide sufficient visual information to support high-level social inferences from "thin slices" of behavior. Given short movies of nonverbal behavior, adults make reliable judgments in a large number of tasks. Here we find that the high precision of adults' nonverbal social perception depends on the slow development, over childhood, of sensitivity to subtle visual cues. Children and adult participants watched short silent clips in which a target child played with Lego blocks either in the (off-screen) presence of an adult or alone. Participants judged whether the target was playing alone or not; that is, they detected the presence of a social interaction (from the behavior of one participant in that interaction). This task allowed us to compare performance across ages with the true answer. Children did not reach adult levels of performance on this task until 9 or 10 years of age, and we observed an interaction between age and video reversal. Adults and older children benefitted from the videos being played in temporal sequence, rather than reversed, suggesting that adults (but not young children) are sensitive to natural movement in social interactions.     

Mere presence is not enough: Responsive support in a virtual world

When individuals are faced with novel or threatening situations, the presence of a trusted companion should reduce anxiety and promote feelings of security. Attachment theory assumes, however, that mere presence is not sufficient for establishing security; an attachment figure must also be attentive and emotionally responsive. To test this idea, participants came to the lab with their romantic partner and completed a threatening cliff-walking task in a digital immersive virtual environment. The presence and nonverbal support behavior (attentive vs. inattentive) of their partner was experimentally manipulated. Results indicated that participants in the attentive-partner condition experienced the task as less stressful than those who were alone; they also reported feeling more secure during the task and were less vigilant of their partner's behavior compared to those in the inattentive-partner condition. Those in the inattentive-partner condition felt less cared for and kept greater physical distance from their partner on a subsequent task. These findings suggest that human beings are predisposed to monitor their social environment for signs of responsiveness, and that perceived responsiveness, not mere presence, is the key modulator of emotional security.     

Personality and relationship quality during the transition from high school to early adulthood

The post-high school transition period is believed to be associated with considerable changes in social networks, yet longitudinal studies documenting these changes are scarce. To address this gap, the current research explored 3 relevant issues. First, changes in participants' relationship characteristics during the transition from high school were examined. Second, the roles of personality traits as antecedents of these changes were studied. Third, the association between change in relationship characteristics and personality during the transition was explored. A sample of over 2,000 German emerging adults, surveyed before leaving school and then 2 years after the transition from high school, was assessed on personality traits and a multidimensional assessment of the quality of their relationships. Findings indicated that participants experienced mostly positive changes in relationship quality during the transition from high school and that antecedent personality at school was an important predictor of the nature of this change. Finally, change in relationship quality was found to be associated with personality change during the post-school transition. Findings indicated that personality traits may influence transition success and that change in relationships during this transition may influence personality development. The implications of the research for post-school transition success are discussed.     

EFFECTS OF A SIGNALED DELAY TO REINFORCEMENT IN THE PREVIOUS AND UPCOMING RATIOS ON BETWEEN-RATIO PAUSING IN FIXED-RATIO SCHEDULES

Domestic hens responded under multiple fixed‐ratio fixed‐ratio schedules with equal fixed ratios. One component provided immediate reinforcement and the other provided reinforcement after a delay, signaled by the offset of the key light. The components were presented quasirandomly so that all four possible transitions occurred in each session. The delay was varied over 0, 4, 8, 16, and 32 s with fixed‐ratio 5 schedules, and over 0, 8 and 32 s with fixed‐ratio 1, 15 and 40 schedules. Main effects of fixed‐ratio value and delay duration were detected on between‐ratio pauses. Pauses were longer when the multiple‐schedule stimulus correlated with a delayed‐reinforcer component was presented, with the longest pauses occurring at the transition from a component with an immediate reinforcer to one with a delayed reinforcer. Pause durations were shortest during immediate components. Overall, both the presence or absence of a delay in the upcoming component, and the presence or absence of a delay in the preceding component affected pause length, but the upcoming delay had the larger effect. Thus changes in delay had similar effects to past reports of the effects of changes in response force, response requirement, and reinforcer magnitude in multiple fixed‐ratio fixed‐ratio schedules.     

Dimensions of Support Among Abused Women in the Workplace

The authors draw on social support theory to examine supervisor support match (support wanted and received), support mismatch (support not wanted and received) and work outcomes for abused low‐wage working women, and to determine if supervisor support match and mismatch are more strongly associated with work outcomes than global supervisor support Face‐to‐face interviews were conducted with a community sample of abused, employed women who have experienced intimate partner violence (IPV) in the past year (N = 163). Using hierarchical regression, we found, after accounting for global supervisor support; a higher level of supervisor support match was associated with greater job satisfaction, fewer job reprimands and less job termination. Findings from the study inform theories of social support and have practical implications for workplace interventions for IPV.